Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe

Immigration and changing demographic trends mean that Europe will in the very near future inevitably be transformed, culturally and politically. As in the Cold War, it again represents a critical theater for rivalry, but this time it is between Christianity, Islam, and secularism. European nations will either be the sites of religious conflict and violence that sets Muslim minorities against secular states and Muslim communities against Christian neighbors, or it could become the birthplace of a liberalized and modernized Islam that could in turn transform the religion worldwide. We urgently need to understand the developing contours of European religious beliefs and practices, and not just as they apply to Muslims, for the outcome of the rivalry there will have profound implications for the United States.     

A Balanced Force Structure To Achieve a Liberal World Order

In addition to preexisting threats such as the rise of China, the United States now faces a protracted struggle against Islamist terrorists. The military component of the nation's security strategy requires a balanced force that can be employed across the spectrum of conflict. The Iraq War has shown the “1-4-2-1” force-sizing construct—maintaining a force able to defend the homeland, operate in and from four forward regions, simultaneously defeat two regional adversaries, and achieve a result such as regime change in one of them—to be unattainable. But by spending 4.5 percent of GDP on defense and with the right force mix, America will be able to lead coalitions against terrorists, restore order to unstable regions, do peacekeeping in regions of vital interest, deter aggression, and win a war if deterrence fails. The benefits of the resulting world order far outweigh the costs.     

Immigration and National Security

The greatest threat to U.S. homeland security comes from illegals who enter the country through its porous borders in order to attack. The tide of illegal immigration must be stemmed in order to secure the United States against terrorism. It is all too easy for illegal immigrants to slip in beneath the radar, eschewing the legalization process and never being detected and deported. And as long as the benefits of illegally immigrating outweigh the costs, the influx will continue. Legal immigration itself needs reform, too; particularly the visa-waiver program and the rules governing dual citizenship, which pose further security challenges. Federal government officials must overcome their fear of alienating ethnic voters and American business, enhance border security, and reform the nation's immigration policies.     

Iraq: A Look Back

Although the diversity of the Iraqi people has in the past hindered any sense of national identity, their suffering before and since the 2003 war has given most Iraqis a common desire to live normal lives. This desire can be a valuable asset for transformation. But the many displaced Iraqis, political prisoners, and families of executed and disappeared persons need healing, which will require considerable time. The prospects for postwar rehabilitation look poor now, with many observers claiming that civil war has already begun. Moreover, until the rule of law can be established, the country will be condemned to another generation of suffering, which will not be confined to Iraq. The current situation might have been averted, but it was not, and now Iraqis and Americans are intimately and problematically linked.     

Outsourcing and China's Rising Economic Power

U.S. firms are outsourcing more and more of their core manufacturing activities to companies in lower-cost countries such as China. However, U.S. policymakers and businesspeople often do not fully understand the complex relationship among outsourcing, corporate sources of competitive advantage, and U.S.-Chinese geo-economic and strategic relations. U.S. companies often must surrender key technologies to Chinese partners and suppliers in order to gain access to the Chinese market. This knowledge transfer helps spawn Chinese rivals that are likely eventually to compete with foreign companies in the global market. This article considers some of the long-term implications of outsourcing on China's regional development and on U.S. competitiveness and national strategy.     

Uncertain Justice for Nuclear Terror: Deterrence of Anonymous Attacks Through Attribution

In light of ongoing work to improve nuclear attribution capabilities, policymakers could be tempted to consider a nuclear terrorism deterrence doctrine relying strongly on the ability of those capabilities to support retaliation against states that supply materials used anonymously in an attack. Although the United States must develop the best possible nuclear attribution capabilities, at the very least to support response actions after an attack, prospects for deterrence are uncertain. To accommodate these uncertainties, as well as the wide range of possible nuclear terrorism scenarios, the United States should adopt a broadly scoped operationally ambiguous declaratory policy in the context of a comprehensive strategic doctrine to prevent nuclear terrorism.     

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq in Perspective: Year 4

As year five begins, the prospects for a successful conclusion of the Iraq war - one that would repair the deep seated and deadly animosities throughout civil society, establish a foundation for a sustainable democratic government, and stop the inexorable climb of U.S. fatalities above 3,000 and of total casualties toward 30,000 and beyond - are remote. The U.S. is embroiled in a conflict in three dimensions, military political and civil, that defies solution. Our military and its leaders have tended to underestimate the enemy and engage it half-heartedly, while the insurgents have retained freedom of action and repeatedly seized the initiative. The fourth dimension, the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds, essential for bringing hostilities to an end, has not even begun.