Stakes and Welfare in Rent-Seeking Contests

Using a public-policy application ofTullock's two-player rent-seeking contest,this paper focuses on the relationshipbetween the aggregate expected utility ofthe players and their asymmetricvaluations. In our game these valuationsare the players' payoffs in the twopossible states of nature, namely, theapproval and rejection of the proposedpublic policy. Our main result provides thecondition that ensures that the aggregateexpected payoff of the two contestants (theinterest groups that compete on theapproval of the proposed policy) is positively related to the valuationparameters.     

The influences of chronic illness and ego development on self-esteem in diabetic and psychiatric adolescent patients

Self-esteem as measured by the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory [Coopersmith, S. (1967),The Antecedents of Self-Esteem, Freeman, San Francisco] and ego development as measured by the Washington University Sentence Completion Test [Loevinger, J., and Wessler, R. (1970),Measuring Ego Development, Vol. I, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco] were evaluated in three groups of early adolescents: diabetic patients, nonpsychotic psychiatric patients, and a nonpatient group of high-school students. We found that low levels of ego development were associated with low levels of global and domain-specific self-esteem in all three subject groups. Levels of self-esteem among diabetic patients were not significantly different from those of nonpatients. While psychiatric patients had significantly lower self-esteem levels than the other groups, this difference was accounted for by preconformists, i.e., those at the lowest stages of ego development. Psychiatric patients reaching higher ego levels showed self-esteem levels indistinguishable from those of the diabetics and nonpatients.This study was supported by the youth development project of the Joslin DRTC (NIH AM20530-01), a grant from the Joslin Diabetes Center (NIH-BRSG), and NIH Grant AM27845. The authors thank John Houlihan, M.A., for statistical and computer consultations and Jennifer Johnson for data analyses.Received M.D. from The University of Chicago. Currently studying psychosocial consequences of diabetes mellitus.Received M.D. from Yale University and Ph.D. from Harvard University (Psychology). Currently studying family contexts of adolescent development.Received Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying family coping processes in response to stressful events.Received Dipl. Psych. from Freie Universitat, Berlin (Clinical Psychology). Currently studying relationships between psychopathology and development among adolescent psychiatric patients.     

Sex differences within the family: Studies of adolescent and parent family interactions

Sex differences in verbal family interactions were investigated in a group of 79 adolescents and parents from normal and psychiatric settings. The analyses were designed to study these differences in both generations, parent and adolescent. Parent and adolescent interactions with one another were observed in a semistructured, revealed-differences family discussion. All of the individual speeches were then scored with our Constraining and Enabling Coding System (CECS). Initial predictions involved both adolescent and parent differences. These hypotheses were only partially confirmed. The strongest findings pertained to parent sex differences, as we found strikingly higher levels of cognitive enabling speeches expressed by fathers and significantly more speeches addressed to fathers. We discuss several alternative interpretations of these findings. Perspectives included in our considerations are direction of effect and influences of task/context upon the expression of family sex differences.This study was supported through a grant from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD Grant No. R01 HD18684-02) and a Research Scientist Development Award No. 5 K-02-MH-70178 (Dr. Hauser) from the NIMH.Received M.D. from Yale University and Ph.D. from Harvard University (psychology). Currently studying family contexts of adolescent development.Received B.A. from Michigan University. Currently graduate student in organizational behavior, Northwestern University. Current interests are women and work.Received his Ph.D. from Boston University. Research interests are in methodology and statistics.Henry A. Murray Research Center of Radcliffe College. Received Ed. D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying family coping processes in response to stressful events.Received Ph.D. from Ohio State University (psychology). Current interests in assessing ego development and family systems.Parent-Place, Judge Baker Guidance Center. Received Ph.D. from the University of Miami (clinical psychology). Research interests are in family studies and adolescent development.Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Currently studying psychological consequences of diabetes mellitus.the Children's Unit of McLean Hospital. Received Diploma Psych. from Freie Universitat, Berlin (clinical psychology), and Ed.D. from Harvard University (School of Education). Currently studying relationships between psychopathology and development among adolescent psychiatric patients.     

Lobbying and Concessions: Comparing Nash to Stackelberg Games

We analyze how the standardresults in lobbying theory change when one side has asecond instrument at its disposal. We look at theeffect concessions by one side have on the outcome ina Nash and a Stackelberg game.     

Efforts in two-sided contests

The degree of rent dissipation is studied in extended two-sided contests that involve two types of efforts. While usual contestants expend resources in trying to win the contested prize, potential recipients of the rent-seeking efforts also participate in the contest. This is due to uncertainty regarding the source of power in the contest that induces the bureaucrats to expend resources to increase their share in the rent-seeking efforts by trying to appear as the party controlling the allocation of the prize. We show that the existing theoretical and empirical studies are incomplete and may underestimate the extent of rent dissipation.     

Statistical discrimination of liquid gasoline samples from casework

The intention of this study was to differentiate liquid gasoline samples from casework by utilizing multivariate pattern recognition procedures on data from gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. A supervised learning approach was undertaken to achieve this goal employing the methods of principal component analysis (PCA), canonical variate analysis (CVA), orthogonal canonical variate analysis (OCVA), and linear discriminant analysis. The study revealed that the variability in the sample population was sufficient enough to distinguish all the samples from one another knowing their groups a priori. CVA was able to differentiate all samples in the population using only three dimensions, while OCVA required four dimensions. PCA required 10 dimensions of data in order to predict the correct groupings. These results were all cross-validated using the "jackknife" method to confirm the classification functions and compute estimates of error rates. The results of this initial study have helped to develop procedures for the application of multivariate analysis to fire debris casework.     

The 1962 Cuban intelligence estimate: A methodological perspective

The performance of American intelligence in the 1962 Cuban crisis was measured inadequately. An account of its failures suggests that the roots of poor performance, and of SNIE 85–3–62 in particular, were in a flawed methodological approach. Problems in four aspects of the intelligence methodology are identified: in the use of comparative logic; in the use of evidence for theory validation; in the formulation of research questions; and in the development and review of assumptions. Finally, the methodological discussion yields lessons concerning the analysis of intelligence performance and makes suggestions for improvement of the intelligence assessment process.     

Temporal Influences of Family Structure and Family Risk Factors on Drug Use Initiation in a Multiethnic Sample of Adolescent Boys

This study examines the effects of family structure and family environments on the initiation of illicit drug use among a sample of U.S.- and foreign-born Hispanic/Latino, African American, and White non-Hispanic adolescent boys (N = 3413). Bivariate and multivariate analyses with longitudinal data, three years, were used to assess transitional/temporal influences of family variables on the initiation of illicit drug use. Findings revealed large differences in family structure among the three race/ethnic groups. African American adolescents report the lowest incidence of illicit drug use initiation, and the weakest effects of family structure and environment on substance use. Cumulative effects of family risk factors were strongly associated with increased probabilities of illicit drug use initiation, but there were temporal as well as race/ethnic variations on these effects. Deteriorating changes in family environments were stronger predictors of the initiation of drug use among Hispanic immigrants than nonimmigrants, and family socioeconomic status was a predictor for immigrant Hispanics only. The relationship between family structure and drug use initiation varied in the context of temporal indicators of family environments, and the accumulation of family risk factors was a stronger predictor of illicit drug initiation than family structure.