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191.
Eugene McGregor (Journal of Politics 35, 459–478, 1973) recognized a regularity in multi-ballot leadership conventions in the United States. He hypothesized that the change in absolute votes between the first and the second ballot could be used to forecast the eventual winner of a leadership race. When the McGregor model is applied to the Canadian multi-ballot conventions the prediction rate is only 57 per cent. This paper seeks first to discuss the qualitative similarities found between these Canadian conventions and then use this as a basis to develop and to apply a model that extends on McGregor's work. The developed model is called the Leadership Selection Index (LSI). We find that the winner of most Canadian multi-ballot conventions (86%) could be forecasted after the second ballot by using the LSI method of analysis. Based on the evidence from the literature and a survey of Canadian political conventions, we develop a hypothesis of ‘two critical conjunctures' for multi-ballot leadership conventions. This hypothesis provides a suitable theoretical framework to interpret the performance of our empirical model. 相似文献
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This article introduces individual-level microdata on victims of violence in Nepal’s civil war (1996–2006). The data being presented in this study are unique in that they are a census—not a sample—of the known population of victims for which information could be collected. The unit of analysis is the individual victim, and the data provide information on: whether the victim was killed, injured, or disappeared; the districts and villages where they were targeted; their permanent home addresses; the circumstances of the attack (combat, extrajudicial, etc.); socioeconomic information; whether they had any affiliation to rebel groups or other political parties; identification of the perpetrator; and whether the victim was considered to be a government or Maoist informant. After describing the data, an application of the data is performed and some preliminary findings are discussed on the differences in targeting behavior between the government and the Maoist rebels. 相似文献
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This article analyzes the interplay between transparency and accountability in multilateral climate politics. The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for a “pledge‐and‐review” approach to collective climate action with an “enhanced transparency framework” as a key pillar of the Agreement. By making visible who is doing what, transparency is widely assumed to be vital to holding countries to account and building trust. We explore whether transparency is generating such effects in this context, by developing and applying an analytical framework to examine the link between transparency and accountability. We find that the scope and practices of climate transparency reflect (rather than necessarily reduce) broader conflicts over who should be held to account to whom and about what, with regard to responsibility and burden sharing for ambitious climate action. We conclude that the relationship between transparency and accountability is less straightforward than assumed, and that the transformative promise of transparency needs to be reconsidered in this light. 相似文献
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Journal of Indian Philosophy - 相似文献
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