Public intelligence: Leaks as policy instruments–the case of the Iraq war

The study of intelligence has focused almost exclusively on ‘secret’ intelligence in its analysis of intelligence failures and the relationship of policy and intelligence. This is not surprising since intelligence analysis takes place in secret. Yet sometimes intelligence becomes public. It does so in ways that hold implications for the quality of the overall intelligence product. In order to develop a complete understanding of the relationship between intelligence and policy we need to more systematically examine the nature of public intelligence. This article provides a framework for doing so, presents historical examples from the American experience and applies the framework to the intelligence used in justifying the Iraq War.     

Beyond market failure and government failure

Public Choice - Criticisms of market outcomes often rest upon a notion of ‘market failure,’ meaning that the market has failed to align incentives and knowledge to produce an optimal...     

Predicting Recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1–55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1–53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.     

Regional variations in public opinion on the affordable care act

One year after passage, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) remains a divisive topic. Most publicly released polls on the law have focused on the views of Americans as a whole. But with much of the responsibility of implementation lying with the states, this essay explores whether opinion differs geographically. The analysis finds that views on the health reform law do differ by region, and these differences are most likely driven by the political leanings of a given area. While opinion nationally differs by age and race, this pattern does not hold when looking by region. Areas that have a larger share of uninsured and are slated to receive greater federal funding under the ACA also do not differ in their opinions. These data suggest that regional variations in attitudes about the ACA are based less on the demographic structure of a region and more on the political ideologies of residents in a given region. As implementation of the law continues, this analysis shows that national opinion data mask important regional variations in views of the ACA.     

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.