“同舟共济”与适应性变革:经济增长、权力转移及中美关系

由于经济增长的差异,新兴市场日益崛起,亚太地区日益崛起,其中中国崛起尤为瞩目。纵观权力转移历史、理论与现实,中国积极寻求融入当前美国主导的国际制度安排,在战略上是正确的,中国成为这一制度的得利较多者,也是满意者和维护者。因此综合长期战略和当前金融危机冲击下的策略,除了积极推动美国对当前制度进行适应性变革外,对于美国目前的困境,中国应该量力积极帮助,共同促进全球经济早日复苏和全球善治,与美国"同舟共济"符合中国战略利益,中国需要战略规划;同时,需要面向未来,准备好美国经济复苏后的策略变化。美国凭其发达的金融业在全球财富再分配中占领制高点,金融业的发展意味着可以在财富的再分配中获得竞争优势,因此中国需要大力发展现代金融业。     

静态资源关系观及其批判

最近几十年里,关于人类资源关系的辩论越来越激烈。学者们大致形成了两个对立的流派。资源悲观主义认为,人类资源关系是零和的,一个人群消耗的资源增加了,其他群体可能得到的资源就会减少。因此,随着资源越来越匮乏,人类资源冲突会愈演愈烈。资源乐观主义认为,人类资源关系是非零和的,资源冲突能够避免。悲观主义和乐观主义尽管尖锐对立,但有共同缺陷——都是静态理论,对资源关系的解释力有限。对此,本文提出了动态的资源关系理论,能够更好地解释人类资源关系。     

Race and the Construction of Evidence in Homicide Cases

Research that attempts to document racial or gender disparities in the criminal justice system inevitably paints a distorted picture if only one point in the criminal justice process is examined. For example, studies that look at who is sentenced to death among a group convicted of first-degree murder will miss exposure of biases that occur at earlier stages of the criminal justice process. In this paper, we looked at prosecutorial files on over 400 homicide cases from Caddo Parish, Louisiana (the Shreveport area). Results indicate that even after controlling for aggravating factors, cases with White female victims result in thicker files than other homicides, indicating more prosecutorial effort in attempting to secure convictions in such cases. This, in turn, was related to more severe sentencing of offenders convicted of killing whites and women. On the other hand, cases with black victims resulted in the thinnest case files and the least severe sentences.     

Beyond market failure and government failure

Public Choice - Criticisms of market outcomes often rest upon a notion of ‘market failure,’ meaning that the market has failed to align incentives and knowledge to produce an optimal...     

Predicting Recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1–55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1–53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.     

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.     

Detection of latent bloodstains beneath painted surfaces using reflected infrared photography

Bloodstain evidence is a highly valued form of physical evidence commonly found at scenes involving violent crimes. However, painting over bloodstains will often conceal this type of evidence. There is limited research in the scientific literature that describes methods of detecting painted-over bloodstains. This project employed a modified digital single-lens reflex camera to investigate the effectiveness of infrared (IR) photography in detecting latent bloodstain evidence beneath a layer or multiple layers of paint. A qualitative evaluation was completed by comparing images taken of a series of samples using both IR and standard (visible light) photography. Further quantitative image analysis was used to verify the findings. Results from this project indicate that bloodstain evidence can be detected beneath up to six layers of paint using reflected IR; however, the results vary depending on the characteristics of the paint. This technique provides crime scene specialists with a new field method to assist in locating, visualizing, and documenting painted-over bloodstain evidence.