The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting

With the increasing availability of statistics describing the occupational structures of different industries manpower forecasters are beginning to develop more sophisticated models. The economic rationale of such models has tended to be obscured by the mathematics involved and an understandable eagerness to put the data to use in forecasting. In addition, the systematic testing of the explanatory power of these models has been neglected where it has not been hampered by the shortage of data series. The RAS model has featured prominently in manpower discussions and this paper attempts an evaluation of its predictive ability and economic interpretation subject to the limits imposed by the data available for the British engineering industry. It is argued that such a model plays a useful initial role in the development of models for sectoral manpower forecasting but must lead on to a more sensitive treatment of the labour market and the decision problem of investing in human capital.     

Unexpected death as a result of infective endocarditis

Thirteen cases of infective endocarditis (IE) diagnosed for the first time at autopsy or, in those patients with a previous diagnosis of IE, not thought to be active at the time of death, are presented. Of the six patients who died within 24 h of the onset of symptoms, two died of obstruction of a valve orifice, two died of sepsis, one died of sepsis and alcoholic cardiomyopathy, and one died of a coronary artery embolus. Of the five patients with symptoms lasting more than 24 h, three died of sepsis and congestive heart failure. One died from sepsis alone and one died from congestive heart failure (CHF). In two patients whose duration of symptoms is unknown, one died of sepsis and CHF, and in the other the mechanism of death is unknown. Predisposing factors present in 11 of 13 patients included alcoholism (three), intravenous (IV) drug abuse (three), prosthetic valves (three), aortic stenosis (two), past rheumatic fever (one), and nonstenotic congenitally bicuspid valves (two). The reasons for no antemortem diagnosis were a missed or incorrect clinical diagnosis in three patients seen by a physician shortly before death, no signs or symptoms or found dead (four), non-specific signs and symptoms (three), refusal of medical treatment (one), and a solitary lifestyle (one); there was insufficient information about one patient. Individuals with needle tracks, generalized petechiae. Osler's nodes, splinter hemorrhages, intravenous catheters, pacemaker wires, and infected aortic-valve (A-V) shunts are at risk of IE. Blood and the vegetations should be cultured. The attending physician should be notified of the diagnosis in such cases.     

The state and rural development in Tanzania: The village administration as a political field

The Village Administrations (VAs) created by the Tanzanian state in the 1970s have been regarded as new state apparatuses intended to facilitate control over a recalcitrant peasantry. Field research in Dodoma revealed two kinds of factions competing for their control: Christians, who co‐operated with higher level state apparatuses in establishing working institutional structures, and Traditionalists, who sought to reconstruct the VA as an entity performing predominantly ritual functions and, by tactful non‐compliance, to insulate households from the demands of the state. If the VA is to be regarded as a state apparatus then it must be recognised that it has substantial autonomy, conditioned by its internal constitution as a political field.