Rational Choice,Agency and Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making: The Short and Long-Term Consequences of Making Good Choices

Notions of human agency are a prominent part of some but not all criminological theories. For example, McCarthy (Annu Rev Sociol 28:417–442, 2002) argues that rational choice theory, which allows persons great involvement in decision making, is more congenial with notions of human agency than others. It would appear from his argument that rational choice theory offers fertile ground to develop a clearly defined role for human agency in criminal behavior. In this paper we have taken up McCarthy’s view and argue that an important part of what is human agency consists of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We outline four elements of thoughtfully reflective decision making, and claim that it is a characteristic that varies both across persons and within persons over time. It is in short the process by which good decisions are made because by using this process one increases the likelihood that choices made will be consistent with preferences. We develop a clear operational definition of thoughtfully reflective decision making and link it to the concept of human agency. We also articulate testable hypotheses about the short-term and longer-term implications of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We conclude with a discussion of what we think lies ahead for future conceptual and empirical work.

Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory

Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offenders perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individuals involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.     

Characterization of gunpowder samples using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS)

Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) was utilized to obtain characteristic mass spectra from three different smokeless powders and six different black powder samples. In these mass spectra, peaks indicative of both the organic and inorganic additive constituents in the gunpowders were observed. TOF-SIMS was able to successfully differentiate between the different black and smokeless gunpowder samples analyzed with the aid of principal components analysis (PCA), a multivariate statistical analysis approach often used to reduce the dimensionality of complex data. TOF-SIMS was also used to obtain information about the spatial distribution of the various additives contained within the gunpowder samples. SIMS imaging demonstrated that that the samples could potentially be characterized by their 2-D structure, which varied from sample to sample. These results clearly demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing TOF-SIMS as a tool for the characterization and differentiation of gunpowder samples for general forensic applications.     

Self-control Depletion and the General Theory of Crime

Criminological research on self-control focuses mainly on self-control failure. Such research has not, however, investigated the consequences of exercising self-control for the individual doing so. The present study investigates this issue within the framework of both criminological self-control theory and research on self-control depletion from social psychology, which depicts self-control as akin to a “muscle” that is “depletable” by prior use [Muraven and Baumeister (2000) Psycholog Bull 126:247–259]. Results are presented from a laboratory experiment in which students have the opportunity to cheat. Both “trait self-control,” as measured by the Grasmick et al. [(1993) J Res Crime Delinq 30:5–29] self-control inventory, and “self-control depletion” independently predicted cheating. The implications of these findings are explored for criminological perspectives on self-control and offender decision-making.

Assessing the Effect of Race Bias in Post-traffic Stop Outcomes Using Propensity Scores

   In response to community demands, case settlements, and state laws concerning racial profiling, police departments across the nation are collecting data on traffic stops. While the data collection is rapidly moving forward, there are few if any agreed upon methods for analyzing the data. Much of the attention has been on benchmarks for the race distribution of stops and searches. Little empirical work has advanced our understanding of the influence of race in the post-stop activities of police. The present study proposes a propensity score technique to determine the extent to which race bias affects citation rates, search rates, and the duration of the stop. Adjusting for confounding variables using the propensity score offers an alternative to multivariate regression that is more interpretable, less prone to errors in model assumptions, and ultimately easier to present to stakeholders in policing practices. An analysis of traffic stop data from the City of Oakland, California demonstrates the process, presentation, and interpretation of the results that the methodology produces. Ultimately, the study addresses the extent to which race plays a role in officers’ use of discretion.

The Politics of Parliamentary Strengthening

Parliament's International Development Committee made a powerful case this year that DFID should put more money into parliamentary strengthening in developing countries. Arguing that parliaments were central to tackling corruption, improving economic development and building stable political settlements, they recommended that parliaments should be at the ‘heart of DFID's governance work’. The report, though, also touched on wider issues of how DFID commissions and monitors its political programmes, suggesting fundamental changes to both. DFID recognises these challenges, and offered either full or partial agreement with most of the recommendations. The challenge that remains, though, is moving from the rhetoric of ‘engaging with politics’ to a much improved form of political and parliamentary programming.     

Participation in a residential mobility program from the client's perspective: Findings from Gautreaux Two

Abstract

In 2002, the Gautreaux Two housing mobility program provided low‐income families living in Chicago public housing with the opportunity to move to more affluent, less racially isolated communities. This article presents findings on their complex search and moving process. Only about one‐third of enrolled families actually moved through the program ("leased‐up"). In‐depth interviews with a randomly chosen sample of 71 families and an additional 20 “likely mover” families showed that movers fell into four groups distinguished by personal characteristics that made it easier for them to move or by residence on Chicago's North Side.

Nonmovers faced a variety of obstacles, both external (a tight rental market, discrimination, and bureaucratic delays) and internal (limited experience and program comprehension, large household size, and health problems). Also, some nonmovers were too busy with work or school to engage in what proved to be an onerous process of identifying a suitable unit and moving.