Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Warriors in the “new world order”

He writes regularly on matters of strategy. His publications include The Strategic Dimension of Military Manpower;and Paradoxes of Power: The Military Establishment in the Eighties.     

Win,lose, or withdraw: A categorical analysis of career patterns in the House of Representatives, 1948–1978

The literature on incumbency advantage has focused on margin as an indicator for electoral security. But while electoral margin is a goodex ante measure, it is a poorex post measure of security. Further, existing work has not integrated the choice of retirement with changes in the level of security. To improve the specification and definition of “marginality”, a multinomial LOGIT model is proposed where the dependent variable is categorical. Account is therefore taken of all the ways a Representative's term in office can end, including reelection, defeat, retirement, or pursuit of other office. The sample includes all U.S. Representatives elected for the first time between 1948 and 1978. The results indicate that (1) margin in the previous election is a significantex ante proxy for the probability of electoral defeat, and (2) while the electoral safety of all incumbents in the House has been increased, the increases are greater for members elected for the first time in the period since 1965.     

Adolescent pubertal status and affective family relationships: A multivariate assessment

This research attempted to more adequately dimensionalize the study of affective family relations during adolescent pubertal maturation by employing a multivariate approach. Fifty-one families responded to an assessment battery consisting of a series of questionnaires designed to measure affective relations between parents and their adolescent children. Families were classified into prepubertal, transpubertal, or postpubertal groups according to their modal response on pubertal status criteria. A stepwise discriminant analysis was performed to identify measures that maximize between groups differences. Based on this analysis, a correct classification rate of 70% was achieved for all families. The two significant discriminant functions that emerged indicate that differences in family relationships are due to the transformation of mother-adolescent and father-adolescent relations. The pattern of results replicate those of other researchers and provide elaborations concerning the affective nature of family relations during adolescence.Received his Ph.D. in Life-span Developmental Psychology from West Virginia University in 1984. Research interests in dialectical models of adolescent development.Received his Ph.D. from the University of Arkansas in 1979. Research interests in decision-making in adolescence and adulthood.     

Student teachers' perceptions of the identity formation process

Student teachers were asked to respond to profiles of various styles of dealing with adolescent identity issues. Student teachers responded most favorably to the profile indicating adolescent exploration of occupational and ideological alternatives (Moratorium) and least favorably to an apparent nonconcern with adolescent issues (Diffuse). Commitment to plans and beliefs with closedness to alternatives (Foreclosure) received intermediate evaluations. Consistent with Eriksonian notions, but at variance with empirical findings, the Moratorium style was rated highest in psychological health. Student teachers preferred the Moratorium-style individual as prospective students; the Diffuse-style one the least. Implications for teacher training and educational practice were examined, and areas of further research were outlined.Funding for this project was received from a grant by the Faculty of Education, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.He received his Ph.D. in Educational Psychology from the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto. Research interests include adolescent personality development and teacher training.His Ph.D. was received from the University of Oklahoma in Experimental Social Psychology. Current research interests include varied aspects of consumer behavior with focus upon the effects of credit card stimuli upon consumer behavior.He received his Ph.D. in Educational Psychology from the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto. Research interests focus upon special education and learning disabilities.     

Groups and political behavior: Legitimation,deprivation, and competing values

This essay asks what might be most usefully studied in future analyses of the impact of groups on the voting behavior of individuals. A dimension of group analysis so far neglected concerns some value orientations that affect the relevance of group consciousness to voting or other political behavior. In particular, the legitimacy of group political action and of group politics more generally is of central importance. Connected to such evaluations is the character of group comparisons, such as in group-focused relative power deprivation. Also of relevance are competing political value constellations, especially individualism and majoritarianism. By the use of a variety of National Election Studies and Wisconsin survey data, these themes are explored empirically to show the extent of a group focus that goes beyond the usual measures of group consciousness. Relative approval of group-based pluralism is also shown to affect the patterns of relationships of major predictors of turnout. And finally, a LISREL analysis is presented that shows that a group focus is as important as a party focus in affecting the level of political alienation pertinent to voter participation.