DISTINGUISHING FACTS AND ARTIFACTS IN GROUP-BASED MODELING*

Group-based methodology (SPGM) has been presented as suitable to test for the existence of subpopulations not directly observable. Several criminological studies have used this methodology, and it is fair to say that typological theorizing has been spurred by its development. In particular, much of the empirical support for Moffitt's taxonomy (1993, 2006) is from studies using SPGM. In a small simulation experiment, I investigate whether SPGM is suitable for such tests, and I examine the extent to which similar trajectories might equally well result from mechanisms suggested by general theories. I conclude that, as it is usually applied, SPGM cannot provide evidence either for or against a taxonomy and that the usual findings can be explained by competing theories. I argue that this result is not only because of the methodology characteristics but also because of the modeling strategy applied.     

Serum concentrations of cardiac troponin T in sudden death

Ischemic heart disease is the most common cause of sudden death of natural causes in most western countries. By autopsy, there may be no gross or histologic evidence of acute myocardial damage unless the patient survived for several hours following the event. Cardiac troponin in serum has become the recommended biochemical marker for myocardial injury in the clinical setting. We performed a prospective study on 102 autopsied subjects at the Central Hospital of Rogaland, Stavanger, Norway. Femoral blood was sampled for subsequent analysis of cardiac troponin T (cTnT). In the subjects with morphologic evidence of recent myocardial injury (n = 34), the mean serum cTnT level was 1.95 microg/L compared with 0.16 microg/L in the subjects with a noncardiac cause of death (n = 35) and 0.61 microg/L in the group with probable sudden cardiac death without morphologic signs of acute myocardial injury (n = 33). The observed differences in mean serum cTnT levels between the groups were statistically significant (P < 0.0001). These data suggest that elevated postmortem serum concentration of cTnT reflects ongoing myocardial damage and may support a diagnosis of cardiac-related death in cases associated with sparse or inconclusive morphologic findings postmortem.     

EU LEGISLATION AND NATIONAL REGULATION: UNCERTAIN STEPS TOWARDS A EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY

The EU with its supranational powers is a unique institution. Contrary to other international organizations, it can make laws that are binding to its member governments as well as to their citizens and enterprises. However, reviewing the literature, we find little consensus as to its true role as a lawmaker. This article and the articles that follow in this symposium remedy this empirical deficiency. The present article presents a comprehensive analysis of the scope of binding EU regulation. The EU is presented as an important lawmaker. It has, with considerable effectiveness, been able to overcome recurrent crises that have often called its very viability into question. But the same analysis also reveals that the EU, in spite of several treaty reforms expanding its responsibilities into new policy areas, remains a predominantly economic regulator. Finally, EU lawmaking is to an increasing extent delegated to the European Commission, dedicated to the de facto task of maintaining the internal market. Although this article and the articles that follow it cover the present, and refer to the European Union (EU), the EU, since its creation in the 1950s, has changed its official name several times.     

From doves to hawks: A spatial analysis of voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England

This article examines the making of monetary policy in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2008 by analysing voting behaviour in the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). It provides a new set of measures for the monetary policy preferences of individual MPC members by estimating a Bayesian item response model. The article demonstrates the usefulness of these measures by comparing the ideal points of outgoing MPC members with their successors and by looking at changes over time in the median ideal point on the MPC. The analysis indicates that the British Government has been able to move the position of the median voter on the MPC through its appointments to the Committee. This highlights the importance of central bank appointments for monetary policy.     

Towards a more peaceful world? A critical view

Contemporary scholars do not agree on whether there is a declining prospect of war and armed conflict. A substantial number of authors of quantitative studies have concluded that the current worldwide trend is towards peace. I argue that this conclusion builds on insufficient evidence and possibly on misleading categorisations. The complacent view on the contemporary international system is based on inadequate awareness of the changing patterns of violence. The so-called new wars are not played out on the traditional battlefield. Valid conclusions about present trends would require a reconsideration of definitions, empirical evidence, and coding rules. Moreover, the current wave of democratisation and the increasing number of international interventions probably do not make the world more peaceful. Therefore, the conclusions in some of the most extensive recent analyses of war and peace, that the world is becoming more peaceful, are flawed.     

Competition and interaction: Party ties to interest groups in a multidimensional policy space

Political parties and interest groups play a vital role in incorporating societal interests into democratic decision-making. Therefore, explaining the nature and variation in the relationship between them will advance our understanding of democratic governance. Existing research has primarily drawn attention to how exchange of resources shapes these relationships largely neglecting the role of contextual conditions. Our contribution is to examine whether parties’ structured interactions with different categories of interest groups vary systematically with the pattern of party competition at the level of policy dimensions. First, we argue that higher party fragmentation in a policy space makes organisational ties to interest groups more likely, due to fears of voter loss and splinter groups. Second, we expect higher polarisation between parties on a policy dimension to make ties to relevant groups less likely due to increased electoral costs. We find support for both expectations when analysing new data on 116 party units in 13 mature democracies along nine different policy dimensions. Our findings underline the value of considering the strategic context in which parties and interest groups interact to understand their relationship. The study sheds new light on parties and interest groups as intermediaries in democracy and contributes to a new research agenda connecting interest group research with studies of parties’ policy positions and responsiveness.     

Jurisdiction size and local government effectiveness: Assessing the effects of municipal amalgamations on performance

The optimal jurisdiction size has been debated since Plato and Aristotle. A large literature has studied economic and democratic scale effects, but we have almost no knowledge of the effects of jurisdiction size on the effectiveness of local services. This is due to two methodological problems. First, selection bias and reverse causality often render change in jurisdiction size an endogenous variable. Second, there is a lack of empirical indicators of effectiveness, and most studies therefore focus on spending measures. Extant research thus studies economies of scale, leaving effectiveness of scale unexamined. We address both problems in a quasi-experimental study of public schools. Our findings from the school area indicate that jurisdiction size does not have systematic effects on effectiveness. Our analysis therefore supports recent studies of economic and democratic scale effects that indicate that the search for the optimal jurisdiction size is futile.     

Trade,peace-building and hybrid governance in the Sudan-South Sudan borderlands

ABSTRACT

Trade and markets in weak states are often discussed in relation with violence, security and peace-building. A case in point are marketplaces in the Sudan-South Sudan borderlands where communities separated by insecurity and hostility meet, not only to trade but also to negotiate and exchange information. This does not imply that establishment of such markets automatically results in peace and stability. Based on new empirical research on the Amieth market in Abyei – an area contested by the two Sudans – I argue that such markets rely on security guarantees negotiated between a set of heterogenous societal groups and that the overall impact of such border markets is largely determined within a context of hybrid security governance. The conclusion emphasises that without a proper analysis of this context, external assistance to such borderland markets might just as well enable violent conflict actors as being a tool for peace-building.     

Managerial incentives and access price regulation

Policy makers have identified the non-discrimination principle as a key instrument to regulate vertically integrated firms in control of upstream bottlenecks. It has been argued that the non-discrimination principle may create a level playing field, but at the expense of higher consumer prices. However, this rests on the assumption that the firms do not respond strategically to the regulation. We show that a non-discrimination requirement makes the vertically integrated firm behave more aggressively. Consequently, non-discrimination regulation rarely creates a level playing field. Neither does it necessarily increase end-user prices. Indeed, we show that end-user prices may fall.