Criminal psychological profiling of serial arson crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.     

Quantitation using GC-TOF-MS: example of bromazepam

Time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOF-MS) offers new perspectives for forensic toxicology. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of a mixture of three selected benzodiazepines (diazepam, nordazepam and bromazepam) were used to compare gas chromatography (GC-TOF-MS, quadrupole GC-MS, GC-ECD) and liquid chromatography (HPLC-DAD) data. Method validation parameters like LOD, LOQ, S/N-ratios reflect the capabilities of GC-TOF-MS. Five-point calibrations for bromazepam in human peripheral blood (50, 100, 160, 200, 300 ng/ml) using medazepam as internal standard (1000 ng/ml) were performed. The calibrations using GC-TOF-MS (using the fragments of m/z 236 and 288), GC-ECD (dual system) and HPLC-DAD (at 235 nm) all showed correlation coefficients close or superior to 0.99. Quadrupole GC-MS data was not used in the comparison of extracted samples due to the low sensitivity in the full scan mode. Two analyses of real cases concerning bromazepam are presented. In the first case, the presence or absence of bromazepam could not be established with both HPLC-DAD and GC-ECD due to background signals. The extracted ion chromatograms and spectrum traces after the analysis with the GC-TOF-MS could clearly excluded the presence of bromazepam. The second case illustrates the quantitation of bromazepam, where both HPLC-DAD and GC-ECD were unable to give satisfactory results, again due to interfering background signals. The analyses performed on the GC-TOF-MS-system demonstrated high sensitivity and also high selectivity due to the high quality of mass spectra obtained. The advantages of GC-TOF-MS make it a promising analytical technique for forensic toxicology.     

The precarious state of international order: Assessment and policy implications

The international order is becoming increasingly precarious as a result of the pressures of globalisation and inadequate policy responses by many states, most importantly the United States, which still holds a pivotal role in building and sustaining international order. The present state of affairs in global governance is characterised by 1) an overwhelming concentration of power at the level of interstate relations but 2) a diffusion of power if we look at the totality of international relations, 3) the erosion of state authority and political legitimacy, 4) the growing importance of markets and of 5) fundamentalist ideologies, 6) the declining utility and the paradoxical impact of force on political order, and 7) by the still indispensable but increasingly fragile base of international order in functioning statehood at the national level. Overall, this situation reflects a mismatch between political demands on and the actual supply of international order whose present state leaves much to be desired. By way of conclusion, the article offers some policy recommendations about how to change the present precarious situation.     

China's Unbalanced Economic Growth

This paper summarizes empirical findings and results from the author's most recent research publication in Chinese: China's Unbalanced Economic Growth. It studies China's economic growth with a special emphasis on its regional disparities. It provides an analysis of China's overall economic landscape as well as an empirical study of China's unbalanced regional development. Based on its quantitative findings and results, the author predicts the emergence of ten Chinese metropolitan economies in the early twenty-first century and recommends a regional development strategy as well as implementation policies for China's future development. The major empirical findings, results and conclusions of this research are outlined in three sections: the first describes China's economic future—the emergence of ten regional metropolitan economies, the second reports the empirical findings of China's national and regional economic disparities and discusses policy implications, and the third investigates China's future economic growth and discusses its growth limitations.     

Rise of the Automobiles: the costs of increased NO2 pollution in China's changing urban environment

China's rapidly growing motor vehicle fleet is changing the makeup of its urban atmosphere. While the two major problem pollutants historically have been particulates and sulfur dioxide, the growth in the number of automobiles has generated substantially increased levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). This paper examines and values the mortality health effects (reduced premature deaths) from cleaning up these three pollutants. Findings indicate that valued gains from reduced air pollution mortality can average 3% of a city's GDP. Moreover, the growing auto fleet may generate a ten-fold increase in NO₂-based mortality costs and offset other, ongoing cleanup efforts in many Chinese cities. Specifically, the paper explores how the increasing number of automobiles might diminish or offset environmental cleanup activities focused upon particulate and sulfur dioxide pollution.