Agenda Control, the Median Justice, and the Majority Opinion on the U.S. Supreme Court

Some scholars argue that the author of the majority opinion exercises the most influence over the Court's opinion-writing process and so can determine what becomes Court policy, at least within the limits of what some Court majority finds acceptable. Other students of the Court have suggested that the Court's median justice effectively dictates the content of the majority opinion: whatever policy the median justice most wants, she can get. We test these competing models with data on Supreme Court decision making during the Burger Court (1969–86). While we find substantial evidence for both models, the agenda control model gains greater support. This suggests that opinions on the Court on each case are driven, in general, by the interaction of three key variables: the policy preferences of the majority opinion author, the policy preferences of the median justice, and the location of the legal status quo .     

The Wisdom of Crowds: Learning from Administrators' Predictions of Citizen Perceptions

Public agencies use surveys to solicit feedback from citizens and targeted customer groups, but many experts question whether the results of these surveys are valuable. This paper explores how a recent innovation in citizen surveys—asking public administrators to predict how citizens will respond to survey questions—may be used to increase that value and, at the same time, provide additional data of interest on its own account. The innovation is explored through two surveys: (1) a public opinion poll of Georgia residents conducted by the authors for the Georgia Department of Transportation in January 2004, and (2) a brief survey of that agency's administrators asking for their predictions of public opinion. The prediction process appeared to increase the agency's interest in the resident survey. The findings document the frequent superiority of groups—what Surowiecki terms "the wisdom of crowds"—over individuals in predicting public opinion.     

Does federally subsidized rental housing depress neighborhood property values?

Few communities welcome federally subsidized rental housing, with one of the most commonly voiced fears being reductions in property values. Yet there is little empirical evidence that subsidized housing depresses neighborhood property values. This paper estimates and compares the neighborhood impacts of a broad range of federally subsidized rental housing programs, using rich data for New York City and a difference‐in‐difference specification of a hedonic regression model. We find that federally subsidized developments have not typically led to reductions in property values and have, in fact, led to increases in some cases. Impacts are highly sensitive to scale, though patterns vary across programs. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Verschafft die direkte Demokratie den Benachteiligten mehr Gehör? Der Einfluss institutioneller Rahmenbedingungen auf die mediale Präsenz politischer Akteure

Dieser Aufsatz untersucht den Einfluss politisch‐institutioneller Kontextfaktoren auf die Artikulationschancen politischer Akteure in der Öffentlichkeit. Als empirische Grundlage dient eine Inhaltsanalyse der Schwangerschaftsabbruchdebatte in der Schweiz im Vergleich mit Deutschland und den USA über einen Zeitraum von drei Jahrzehnten. Es wird aufgezeigt, dass institutionell bedingte Machtdifferentiale ‐ vermittelt über mediale Selektionslogiken ‐ in hohem Masse die öffentliche Präsenz der Akteure, ihr mediales Standing, bestimmen. Dies benachteiligt insbesondere zivilgesellschaftliche Herausforderer, wie etwa soziale Bewegungen. Direktdemokratische Verfahren, so wird weiter argumentiert, wirken in der Schweiz diesem Effekt jedoch entgegen, indem sie den Aussenseitern Möglichkeiten zur Profilierung und Etablierung bieten. Davon profitieren ebenfalls die Parteien, welchen in der Schweiz ansonsten eine schwache institutionelle Stellung attestiert wird. Mit seinen Ergebnissen stützt der Aufsatz schliesslich die Forderung nach einer Kontextualisierung politischer Kommunikationsforschung im Sinne eines “institutional turn” und zeigt das Potenzial einer komparativen Vorgehensweise auf.     

Party attachments and political fragmentation in Europe

Abstract. Values and ideologies seem to be changing rapidly in many countries of Western Europe. These developments imply a shift among the adherents of political parties. On the one hand, we expect to see a process of deideologization weakening the traditional ties between parties and their adherents. On the other hand, increasing pluralization is suggested by the ongoing process of individualization. In this study we analyze the orientations of the adherents of the main political parties in 12 Western European countries in the last two decades. We expect to find clear traces of ongoing deideologization as well as pluralization, but this expectation proves to be inaccurate. Neither deideologization nor pluralization can be accepted as a common feature of party adherents in advanced industrial societies. On the contrary. Each of these processes seems to follow a different path of development in distinct countries and in distinct party families. A general 'decline-of-the-party' or an 'end-of-ideology' is not to be found among the adherents of the main parties in Western Europe in the last decades. The processes appear to be more complicated, with divergent developments in different countries.     

SYMPOSIUM: RESURGENT ISLAM IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The following is an edited version of the proceedings of a symposium sponsored by the Middle East Policy Council on May 26, 1994, in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC. Former Senator George McGovern, President of the Council, introduced the panel; Thomas R. Mattair, the Councis Director of Research and Policy Analysis, was the organizer and moderator; Michael Collins Dunn, Senior Analyst of The International Estimate, Inc., and editor of its biweekly newsletter, The Estimate, was the discussant.     

Suicidal ideation in adolescence: Depression,substance use,and other risk factors

The interrelationships of depression and suicide with adolescent drug use, delinquency, eating disorders, and the risk factors for these different problems were investigated among 597 9th and 11th graders in an urban high school. There is a strong association of drug use with suicidal ideation among girls, and a stronger relationship with attempts among girls and boys. Suicidal youths are ill-adjusted and display a lack of attachment and commitment to family and school. Causal models indicate that poor interpersonal interactions with parents, absence of peer interactions, and life events lead to depression, which in turn leads to suicidal ideation. Depressive symptoms are the strongest predictors of suicidal ideation. Among females, depression predicts drug involvement, and in turn, drug use increases suicidal ideation. Drug use is only one class of problem behaviors that constitutes a risk factor for suicidal behavior in adolescence. Delinquency and eating disorders also have direct effects on suicidal ideation beyond those of depressive affect. As for drug involvement, these problem behaviors are more predictive of suicidal behavior among girls than boys. Similarity and specificity of the predictors for problem behaviors within and between the sexes are discussed. Although young women use drugs to handle feelings of depression, drug use appears ineffective in the long run in relieving these depressive feelings. Understanding the dynamics of suicidal ideation in adolescence has important public health implications, since ideation is a strong predictor of attempts, especially among females.Revised version of a presentation at the Workshop on Adolescent Depression, Princeton, NJ, June 3, 1987.Work on this research has been partially supported by Research Grants DA00064, DA01097, DA03196, and DA02867, and by Research Scientist Award DA00081 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse; and awards from the John D. and Catherine MacArthur Foundation and the Research Foundation for Mental Hygiene, New York State Psychiatric Institute. Partial support for computer costs was provided by Mental Health Clinical Research Center Grant MH30906-07 from NIMH to the New York State Psychiatric Institute.Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include adolescent psychosocial development, epidemiology and risk factors for drug use, and interpersonal networks.Work on this research was carried out while a Research Associate at the School of Public Health, Columbia University. Received Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University. Research interests include personal networks and social support systems in chronic illness, societal factors in mental health, psychosocial consequences of drug use and abuse, panel mortality, and survey methodology.Received M.P.H. from Columbia University. Research interests include reliability and child psychiatry.