LINKING ACTUAL AND PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT:

An untested proposition in deterrence theory is that people's perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community are influenced by their exposure to information about crimes committed in the community which have and have not resulted in arrest. We examine the effects of two sources of information on people k perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community: (1) newspaper crime stories and (2) personal experiences with crimes and the personal experiences of one's acquaintances. Only the latter appear to influence people's estimates of the certainty of arrest.     

DRAWING LESSONS FROM US EXPERIENCE: AN ELECTED MAYOR FOR BRITISH LOCAL GOVERNMENT

Taking as a starting point the suggestion that US-style elected mayors might be appropriate for British local government this article explores the implications of such a development. It analyses the experience of the United States and notes crucial differences between the local government systems of Britain and the United States. These differences require a discussion of certain adaptations and changes that would need to be considered before an elected mayor in Britain could be established. The extent to which such an emulation would constitute an improvement to the current British local government system is considered. The article demonstrates the potential of prospective evaluation. It asks what we can learn from the experience of another country by projecting that experience onto the particular setting an circumstances of our own country. It provides otherwise unavailable evidence about the likely effects of a potentially important reform. The article concludes with an assessment of the general case for experimenting with an elected mayor in British local government and the prospects that such experiments will be taken forward.     

Political Environments and Implementation Failures: The Case of Superfund Enforcement*

The Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund enforcement program is examined to test the hypothesis that change in the political environment contributes to implementation failure. Agency achievements are evaluated under two enforcement strategies: a Burford strategy dominated by the Reagan administration deregulatory agenda and a Ruckelshaus/Thomas strategy that is more in keeping with the Agency's initial pro-regulatory legislative mandate. The latter strategy is found to be more effective in terms of quantitative and qualitative enforcement outcome measures. This supports the conclusion that the systematic intrusion of deregulatory politics into enforcement strategy formulation contributed to Superfund failure.     

Studies in War-time Organisation: (2) THE RESIDENT MINISTRY IN WEST AFRICA

One of the purest types of "functional" organisation, initiatedfor purely temporary purposes, and, with the alteration in thewar situation, almost inevitably gravitating to more long-distanceplanning, is the Resident Ministry in West Africa. This articlewas written, at our invitation, by a member of Lord Swinton'sHeadquarters staff, who wishes it to be understood that he iswriting in a purely private capacity.     

Understanding Cross National Policy Transfers: The Case of Britain and the US

Policy transfer across countries is occurring with increasing frequency. Yet, despite the fact that the importance of such policy learning is often cited as one of the primary rationales for comparative policy analysis, policy transfer is an under-researched area of political science. This article examines and analyzes the actual process of policy transfer between the US and Britain and considers the relationship between policy transfer and the policymaking process.     

INDUSTRY CULTURE AND INDUSTRY ECONOMY: CORRELATES OF TAX NONCOMPLIANCE IN SWEDEN*

Industry culture and industry economy have been used, with mixed results, to explain violations of law by corporate enterprise. The purpose of this paper is to use these theoretical concepts to examine differential noncompliance with tax law across Swedish industry in the early 1980s. A measure of noncompliance by industry is developed using tax audit data. The impact of audit policy on measured noncompliance is evaluated. Differences in industry culture are indicated by information on the presence and diffusion of techniques for noncompliance. Differences across industries in incentives to violate are indicated by bankruptcy rates and opportunities to gain through noncompliance. A hypothetical model is offered that explains the dynamic interaction of these factors and that could generate the static results reported. The paper concludes with a discussion of industry-level analysis in predicting corporate violations.