PREDICTING WHO REOFFENDS: THE NEGLECTED ROLE OF NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT IN RECIDIVISM STUDIES*

Prior studies of recidivism have focused almost exclusively on individual‐level characteristics of offenders and their offenses to explore the correlates of reoffending. Notably absent from these studies are measures reflecting the neighborhood contexts in which individuals live. The current research addresses this shortcoming. Using data on a sample of ex‐offenders in Multnomah County, Oregon (Portland and surrounding area) in conjunction with 2000 census data, we answer two questions. First, which individual‐level factors influence rates of recidivism? Second, to what extent does neighborhood socioeconomic status account for variation in the reoffending behavior of ex‐prisoners that is not explained by their individual‐level characteristics? We find that those who return to disadvantaged neighborhoods recidivate at a greater rate while those who return to resource rich or affluent communities recidivate at a lesser rate, controlling for individual‐level factors.     

A modification of the microplate method for reverse ABO typing of bloodstains and additional validation studies

The results of additional validation studies of a sensitive microplate hemagglutination assay for ABO reverse grouping of bloodstains are presented. The results of the validation study demonstrate the reliability of the microplate assay for use in routine serological casework. Based on these studies, the microplate assay has now replaced the Lattes crust test for ABO reverse grouping of bloodstains in the FBI Laboratory.     

Acidic and neutral drugs screen in blood with quantitation using microbore high-performance liquid chromatography–diode array detection and capillary gas chromatography–flame ionization detection

Blood previously acidified with aqueous saturated ammonium chloride solution was extracted with ethyl acetate. The dried extract was subjected to acetonitrile–hexane partition. The acetonitrile portion was analysed for the presence of acidic and neutral drugs by HPLC–DAD (200 mm×2.1 mm I.D. microbore ODS-Hypersil column) and GC–FID (25 m narrow-bore×0.25 mm I.D. HP-5 column with 0.33 μm film thickness). The protocol was found to be suitable for both clinical toxicology (including emergency toxicology) and postmortem toxicology. At least 66 drugs of interest were unequivocally identified by RRTs (HPLC) and UV spectra (DAD) match while another 12 were unequivocally identified by double RRTs match (HPLC and GC). Quantitation was facilitated by incorporating calibration blood standards in each assay batch. The five drugs most commonly encountered in clinical blood specimens (1150 cases) were: paracetamol (47.4% of the cases); chlormezanone (6.6%), theophylline (1.74%), naproxen (1.65%) and mefenamic acid (1.56%). The following drugs were detected in toxicologically significant quantities in postmortem blood specimens (245 cases): phenobarbitone (1.22% of the cases), naproxen (0.82%), chlormezanone (0.82%), theophylline (0.82%), carbamazepine (0.41%) and paracetamol (0.41%).     

Isolation of the DNA minisatellite probe MZ 1.3 and its application to DNA 'fingerprinting' analysis

A minisatellite probe, MZ 1.3, detecting hypervariable fragment patterns was isolated from a human genomic library. A repetitive sequence of 27 bp length was identified which is contained in the probe approx. 40 times. The MZ 1.3 repeat shows variable homology of 53-73% to the repetitive sequence of the protein III gene of the bacteriophage M13 genome. Polymorphic restriction fragment patterns were found with MZ 1.3 using the enzymes Hinf I, BstN I, Hae III, Mbo I, PstI/Pvu II, and Rsa I. An average of 18 polymorphic fragments was observed using Hinf I as enzyme. The band sharing frequency after Hinf I digestion among unrelated individuals was determined to be 23.8 +/- 7.2%. An example for the application of MZ 1.3 to paternity testing in an incest case is given. The probe can be used with radioactive or non-radioactive detection systems. An approach is presented to compare polymorphic fragment patterns from individuals obtained by independent gel runs on the basis of relative band positions (RBP) and calculated in a computerized analysis.     

Parents' Reactions to Child Day Care Organizations: The Influence of Perceptions of Procedures and the Role of Organizations' Trustworthiness

On the basis of the uncertainty management model, we argue here that when people are uncertain about an organization's trustworthiness, they may resolve the question how they should react toward the organization by relying on their perceptions of the organization's procedures. As a consequence, we predicted that the reactions of parents whose child was in a day care center would be strongly influenced by their perceptions of the procedures used by the organization that was responsible for their children's day care when the parents would be uncertain about the organization's trustworthiness. However, when parents would be certain that the organization could be trusted they would be less in need of procedural information, yielding less strong effects of perceived procedure on parents' reactions. The findings of a survey study corroborate this line of reasoning. In the discussion it is argued that these findings suggest that people especially rely on their perceptions of procedures when they are uncertain about important aspects of their lives, such as the trustworthiness of organizations that are responsible for their children's day care.     

Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Plasma versus bone marrow desipramine: a comparative study

Correlation between plasma and bone marrow tricyclic antidepressants has not been studied before. Two groups of rabbits were given 10 and 20 mg of desipramine/kg body weight, respectively. Desipramine was administered to the animals once daily by mouth for 5 days. On the fifth day the animals were sacrificed and blood and bone marrow samples were collected and analyzed using a high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) method. Data showed that a correlation exists between bone marrow and blood desipramine. The bone marrow desipramine concentration increased as its blood levels increased. The average ratio of bone marrow to blood desipramine +/- S.D. (standard deviation) in both dosage groups was 37.2 +/- 4.46 with a range of 30.99-44.82. This investigation is promising and shows that bone marrow could be used as an alternative tissue in the absence of a suitable blood sample.     

Prison mental health services: results of a national survey of standards, resources, administrative structure, and litigation

The formation of adequate mental health systems within prisons has accelerated as a result of successful class action lawsuits. Our recent national survey questioned all state correctional departments about the existence of standards in each system, compliance with such standards, prevalence of class action lawsuits involving the issue of providing adequate mental health services for inmates, issues related to consent decrees, available mental health resources within the correctional system, and the administrative structure of the mental health system. Our purpose was to identify those factors correlated with certified class action lawsuits involving issues related to mental health services. Twenty-one states were involved in such litigation. Only the presence of psychiatric hospitals operated by the department of corrections correlated with the presence of certified class action lawsuits involving mental health services. Prison systems larger than 15,000 inmates were at higher risk for such litigation. Smaller systems having psychiatric hospitals run by the state mental health agency appeared to be at less risk for such litigation.