Using Space–Time Analysis to Evaluate Criminal Justice Programs: An Application to Stop-Question-Frisk Practices

Objectives

Effects of place-based criminal justice interventions extend across both space and time, yet methodological approaches for evaluating these programs often do not accommodate the spatiotemporal dimension of the data. This paper presents an example of a bivariate spatiotemporal Ripley’s K-function, which is increasingly employed in the field of epidemiology to analyze spatiotemporal event data. Advantages of this technique over the adapted Knox test are discussed.

Methods

The study relies on x–y coordinates of the exact locations of stop-question-frisk (SQF) and crime incident events in New York City to assess the deterrent effect of SQFs on crime across space at a daily level.

Results

The findings suggest that SQFs produce a modest reduction in crime, which extends over a three-day period. Diffusion of benefits is observed within 300 feet from the location of the SQF, but these effects decay as distance from the SQF increases.

Conclusions

A bivariate spatiotemporal Ripley’s K-function is a promising approach to evaluating place-based crime prevention interventions, and may serve as a useful tool to guide program development and implementation in criminology.

     

Crime Continuity and Psychological Inertia: Testing the Cognitive Mediation and Additive Postulates with Male Adjudicated Delinquents

Objectives

Crime continuity is one of the best documented and least understood aspects of criminal behavior. Psychological inertia, the notion that cognitive variables mediate the relationship between earlier and later expressions of the same behavior, was tested as a possible explanation for crime continuity.

Methods

The cognitive mediation and additive postulates of the psychological inertia theorem were tested in a path analysis using self-report data from 1170 male delinquent members of the Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey in Paper presented at the American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2012). Wave 1 delinquency served as the independent variable, Wave 3 delinquency served as the dependent variable, Wave 2 outcome expectancies for crime, self-efficacy, general criminal thinking, and social capital served as the mediator variables, and 12 different baseline measures from criminological theory served as control variables in this study.

Results

General criminal thinking and low self-efficacy successfully mediated the relationship between past and future offending after age, race, early behavioral problems, peer criminality, family criminality, parental knowledge and monitoring, parental hostility, routine activities, measured intelligence, and precursors for each of the mediators were controlled. Social capital (cumulative disadvantage), by comparison, failed to mediate crime continuity in this study.

Conclusions

Effective cognitive mediation of the relationship between Wave 1 offending and Wave 3 offending and evidence that the effect may be additive offer preliminary support for the cognitive mediation and additive postulates of the psychological inertia theorem. Practical implications of these results include the need to routinely assess cognitive factors in criminal populations and target these factors for intervention.

     

Toward a Demographic Understanding of Incarceration Disparities: Race,Ethnicity, and Age Structure

Objectives

Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more likely to be incarcerated than non-Hispanic whites. The risk of incarceration also varies with age, and there are striking differences in age distributions across racial/ethnic groups. Guided by these trends, the present study examines the extent to which differences in age structure account for incarceration disparities across racial and ethnic groups.

Methods

We apply two techniques commonly employed in the field of demography, age-standardization and decomposition, to data provided by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the 2010 decennial census to assess the contribution of age structure to racial and ethnic disparities in incarceration.

Findings

The non-Hispanic black and Hispanic incarceration rates in 2010 would have been 13–20 % lower if these groups had age structures identical to that of the non-Hispanic white population. Moreover, age structure accounts for 20 % of the Hispanic/white disparity and 8 % of the black/white disparity.

Conclusion

The comparison of crude incarceration rates across racial/ethnic groups may not be ideal because these groups boast strikingly different age structures. Since the risk of imprisonment is tied to age, criminologists should consider adjusting for age structure when comparing rates of incarceration across groups.

     

The Recurring Victimization of Individuals with Mental Illness: A Comparison of Trajectories for Two Racial Groups

Objective

This study explores whether the trajectories of recurring victimization of Black persons diagnosed with major mental illnesses vary from the trajectories of their White counterparts. Further, the study examines whether the risk factors for recurring victimization among persons with major mental illness vary by race.

Methods

Using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study (MacRisk), two separate hierarchical binomial regression models were estimated to compare the recurring victimization trajectories of Black and White MacRisk participants. Cross-level interaction terms were also estimated to determine if the coefficients for each of the time-varying covariates included in the analyses were significantly different across race.

Results

The findings indicate that the trajectories of recurring victimization for Black persons with serious mental illness are significantly different from those of White persons with serious mental illness. Specifically, Black persons’ trajectories remain relatively stable over time, while the risk of recurring victimization declines for Whites as time since release from the hospital increases. Further, the effects of alcohol abuse on revictimization risk vary by race.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that the life experiences of Black persons with mental illness may be different from their White counterparts, which is likely to contribute to distinct patterns of recurring victimization over time. Future research should continue to explore recurring victimization among diverse samples to identify potential sources of the variation in revictimization trajectories across race.

     

Identifying Classes of Explanations for Crime Drop: Period and Cohort Effects for New York State

Objective

This paper advances current understanding of the contemporary crime drop by focusing on the changes in the age distribution of arrests from 1990 to 2010. Using the New York State Computerized Criminal History (CCH) file, which tracks every arrest in the state, we apply standard demographic methods to examine age-specific arrest rates over time. We test whether the 25 % drop in the felony arrest rate can be best explained by period or cohort effects with special attention to how the phenomenon varies across crime types and regions within the state.

Methods

Following the analytic approach of O’Brien and Stockard (J Quant Criminol 25(1):79–101, 2009), we fit the age–period–cohort (APC) model using the generalized inverse matrix, which creates an estimable model. We partition the model variation into each factor by subtracting the variation of the two-factor model from the variation of the three-factor model to provide a direct comparison of the two different classes of explanations for crime drop: period and cohort.

Results

Our analysis supports a cohort explanation over a period explanation. Controlling for the (substantial) variation due to age, the cohort effect accounts for twice as much of the remaining variation as the period effect. Specifically, the drop in arrest rates is concentrated in more recent birth cohorts across all ages. Although we found statistically significant age–period interaction effects for the younger age group (ages 16–20) in 1990 and 1995, the cohort effect was still a much stronger predictor of felony arrest rates than the period explanation, even with the age–period interaction.

Conclusions

The current study reports that the overall drop in felony arrest rates from 1990 to 2010 is mostly due to decreased arrests among those who were born after 1970 rather than a universal drop across different age groups. We discuss but do not test two potential explanations—the legalization of abortion and the ban on leaded gasoline—for the underlying factors associated with a different criminal propensity among birth cohorts.

     

Understanding the Roles of Context,Frequency, and Quantity of Alcohol Consumption in Child Physical Abuse: Risks for Mothers and Fathers

Alcohol use is related to child physical abuse, although little is known about gender-specific risks factors. This study examines the relationships between alcohol outlets, context-specific drinking, dose–response drinking and child physical abuse for mothers and fathers. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1973 female and 1050 male respondents in 50 California cities. Weighted negative binomial models were used to calculate the frequency of physical abuse in the past year. Drinking more often at restaurants was related to higher frequency of physical abuse for fathers, while mothers who drank more frequently at bars and parties used physical abuse more often. There were no significant dose–response drinking relationships for fathers. Drinking higher amounts at bars, parties, and restaurants was associated with less frequent physical abuse for mothers. Our findings suggest that a focus on drinking contexts may reveal heightened risk for many mothers who do not consume large amounts of alcohol.     

Revictimized Adult Women: Perceptions of Mental Health Functioning and Associated Services

In this study, using a sample of adult women (N = 418) from various environments, mental health outcomes and perceptions about different types of support following childhood and adulthood sexual and physical violence were assessed. The respondents were from three locations: general community, state prison, and sexual assault and domestic violence service providers. A cluster analysis based on victimization experiences was conducted; subsequent analyses showed that women who endured more types of abuse had more self-reported mental health difficulties. Somewhat paradoxically, women who utilized more therapeutic services held more negative perceptions of their mental health functioning, while use of tangible services had no significant association. Those who found therapeutic services helpful had significantly higher self-reported concurrent mental health functioning.     

‘My Eyes Were Open’: Awakened Maternal Identity and Leaving Violent Relationships for the Infant/Children

A qualitative secondary analysis explored stories of mothers (n = 49) who left violent relationships (VRs) through a lens of maternal identity. Constant comparative method identified a theory of Awakened Maternal Identity (AMI) and Leaving VR for the Infant/Children. Mothers described how the VR diminished their maternal identity (DMI). Partners controlled the VR though unrealistic infant care expectations, criticisms of infant care, harsh parenting, and control over mothering decisions. DMI lowered the mother’s capacity to provide emotionally nurturing infant care. Over time, mothers experienced AMI- as their ‘eyes were opened’ they experienced a stronger sense of mothering responsibility, focused more on the infants and children, and eventually prioritized their relationship with the infants and children over the partner. AMI seemed a turning point that led to leaving the VR for the infants/children. Recommendations offered for professionals to foster AMI as potential means to initiate the leaving VRs.     

An Exploratory Study of Honor Crimes in the United States

There is a lack of research on honor crimes within the United States. We used an open source search methodology to identify the victim-offender relationship and motivations for this crime within the United States. Using data collected based on the protocol for the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), we identified a total of 16 honor crimes with 40 victims that occurred between January 1st 1990 and December 31st 2014 in the United States. Based on our findings, the overarching motivations for honor crimes in the United States were the perpetrator’s former partner beginning the process of separation and the westernized behavior of the victim, typically the offender’s daughter or step-daughter. Honor crimes were not limited to current/former intimate partners or daughters, as they also included the death of extended family members (e.g. in-laws, nieces, and cousins). Policy implications and directions for future research on honor crimes are discussed.     

The Effect of Family Violence on Sexual Victimization among Young Women

Young people who grow up in a violent family context are more vulnerable to become victims of sexual aggression outside the family context. The present study contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms that explain this link among young women by looking at the mediating role of sexual exposure behavior and target vulnerability. Data were used from an online survey among 237 young women aged 16 to 26 (M?=?21.0 years, SD?=?2.75). Experiencing violence from (one of) the parents and to a lesser extent witnessing interparental violence were related to an elevated risk for sexual victimization. Witnessing interparental violence was related to increased target vulnerability but this factor did not mediate the link with sexual victimization. Experiencing parental violence was related to both increased sexual exposure behavior and increased target vulnerability and these factors did mediate the link with sexual victimization.