Making the second step before the first: Assessing organized crime

The debate on organized crime has shifted from the question of “myth or reality?” to efforts to come to an assessment of the nature and extent of organized crime. This paper discusses the possibilities and limits of such an endeavor in the case of Germany. A meaningful assessment requires linking the concept of organized crime to clearly defined empirical referents, having a thorough understanding of their dynamics and interrelations, and obtaining valid and reliable data. It is argued that these requirements cannot be met given the present paucity in theory and data. From the available aggregate data contained in the official crime statistics and annual situation reports on organized crime drawn up by the federal police agency BKA no overall trends are discernible. Where trends are identifiable, they mostly pertain not to patterns of criminal cooperation but to contextual factors. In contrast, the analysis of individual cases may serve to shed some light on the situation of organized crime, provided they are put in perspective with a differentiated conceptualization. A four-fold typology of criminal networks based on differences in the social embeddedness of criminal actors suggests that the seriousness of the problem may depend on the likelihood of the manipulation of relevant decision-making processes. Germany is not characterized by alliances between underworld and upperworld, but the existence of criminal networks within the upperworld gives grounds for concern.     

The evolution of judge-made law

The Law must be applied in all cases which come within the letter or the spirit of any of its provisionsWhere no provision is applicable, the judge shall decide according to the existing Customary Law and, in default thereof, according to the rules which he would lay down if he had himself to act as legislator.Herein he must be guided by approved legal science and case-law¹     

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

This article analyses 34 Swedish birth cohorts with regard to their participation in crime as measured by data from the convictions database maintained by Statistics Sweden. Most existing cohort studies are limited to one or a few cohorts. By contrast, the present study includes 34 cohorts, i.e. all persons born in Sweden between 1958 and 1991. The article discusses methodological problems associated with this type of approach and examines the possibility of making forecasts. The central results are that the number of males with a criminal record has decreased, whereas the number of females has remained fairly stable. Forecasts indicate that the cohorts' participation in crime will continue to decrease. Research and policy implications of the findings are outlined. It is proposed to introduce cohort statistics as a standard branch within regular criminal justice statistics.     

Misleading the German public: The new bundestag law on parliamentarians

This article outlines the history of several attempts to increase salaries and pensions of members of the German Bundestag in the early 1990s. It shows the unethical tactics used by parliamentarians and the way in which public information was in part consciously designed to mislead. It is argued that Bundestag members tend to form a political cartel when decisions concerning their salaries and pensions are made. Similiar tendencies can be observed in all parliamentary decisions involving party finance, providing support for Katz and Mair's thesis that ‘catch‐all’ parties are generally being replaced by ‘cartel parties’. Having analysed the issues involved, the article calls for greater accountability and responsibility on the part of German politicians when their own personal advantage is at issue.     

Testing the satisficing version of the political business cycle 1905–1984

This paper develops a test of the satisficing version of the political business cycle. Previous tests have focused on maximizing models of political behavior and are not sufficiently general to test for satisficing behavior. Using annual U.S. data for the period 1905 to 1984, we find evidence supporting the satisficing version of the political business cycle model, but we reject the maximizing version. In accordance with the satisficing hypothesis, we find that increasing inflation or unemployment and decreasing monetary base growth in the third year of a presidential term are followed typically by reversals during the election year.We wish to thank Gordon Tullock and two anonymous referees for valuable comments.