Bayesian adaptive approach to estimating sample sizes for seizures of illicit drugs

A considerable amount of discussion can be found in the forensics literature about the issue of using statistical sampling to obtain for chemical analyses an appropriate subset of units from a police seizure suspected to contain illicit material. Use of the Bayesian paradigm has been suggested as the most suitable statistical approach to solving the question of how large a sample needs to be to ensure legally and practically acceptable purposes. Here, we introduce a hypergeometric sampling model combined with a specific prior distribution for the homogeneity of the seizure, where a parameter for the analyst's expectation of homogeneity (α) is included. Our results show how an adaptive approach to sampling can minimize the practical efforts needed in the laboratory analyses, as the model allows the scientist to decide sequentially how to proceed, while maintaining a sufficiently high confidence in the conclusions.     

Referendum Design: An Exercise in Applied Social Choice Theory

The formal status of the referendum institution in democratic system varies from consultative and optional to mandatory and binding. Despit the formal status, it can be argued that in all systems the legislators can hardly ignore the referendum results. The article presents two arguments: (1) The results of social choice theory suggest that the number of alternatives in referenda should to be restricted to two in order to a void severe problems of interpretation and agenda manipulation. (2) The consultative referendum system may lead to quite dramatic norm conflicts for both legislators and voters. Taken together, these two arguments imply that referenda are appropriate only in cases where there is natural way to dichotomize the issue at hand. Moreover, whenever a referendum is called, its result should be binding.     

Somnophilia and Sexual Abuse Using Vaginal Administration of Triazolam

Somnophilia is a rare paraphilia, a form of sexual fetishism which is characterized by the desire to have sex with an unconscious human object who is unable to respond. To the author's knowledge, this is the first case study concerning somnophilic sexual abuse associated with vaginal administration of triazolam. The perpetrator video‐recorded his sexual acts with two unconscious female victims with whom he also had normal sexual intercourse and who were unaware of his paraphilic activities. His Internet conversations with other persons whom he thought to be interested in somnophilic sex and his plans to kidnap a child were recorded by the police. It was evident that sex with an unconscious object played a specific fetishistic role for this man. He obviously used a combination of drugs mixed with alcoholic drinks to make his victims fall sleep and videotaped vaginal administration of triazolam used to deepen the victim's unconscious state.     

The Distribution of A Priori Voting Power in the EC Council of Ministers and the European Parliament

One of the most important decision making bodies in the EC is the Council of Ministers. In that voting body the member states have different voting weights roughly in proportion to the size of their populations. This article focuses on the voting power of current and prospective member states (Finland, Norway and Sweden) utililizing the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices of voting power. As the decision rules play a crucial role in the computation of these indices, the a priori voting power distribution is considered under various decision rules ranging from simple majority to near unanimity. We also discuss the a priori voting power distribution of various political groupings in the current European Parliament and in the hypothetical parliament which would have Finland, Norway and Sweden as new members. Although thus far the real power base in the EC is the Commission, the analysis of voting power distributions in the Council of Ministers and in the parliament sheds some light upon the relative influence that various actors might have in EC decision-making processes.     

Explaining Social Class Inequality in Voter Turnout: The Contribution of Income and Health

Occupation‐based social class is an important, yet under‐explored, factor in electoral participation. In this article, social class differences in voter turnout over time are measured, and how two other resources – namely income and health – mediate or modify this relationship is analysed. The analysis is based on an individual‐level register‐based 11 percent sample of the entire electorate in the 1999 Finnish parliamentary elections, and secondarily on smaller register‐based samples in the 2012 presidential and municipal elections. Results show that income mediates part of the effects of social class on voting, while social class and utilised health indicators exert mainly independent effects on turnout. Social class differences remain largely stable in all income and hospital care groups, except that no differences between classes are observed among those most severely affected by health problems. Results are also mostly similar between those of working age and the older population, and between men and women, and remain stable over time and in different types of elections. The findings imply that social class should be taken account in theoretical and empirical models of turnout.     

Nordic Cooperation in Criminal Policy and Crime Prevention

The Nordic crime prevention councils have tried to articulate their common ideology as the ‘Nordic model’. However, Nordic crime prevention is neither theoretically nor methodologically particularly original. Its common characteristics are best understood against the background of a long‐standing Nordic cooperation in criminal policy and criminology and on the basis of cross‐national influences between historically interrelated and culturally relatively similar countries. The present study describes how crime prevention has developed and is organized in the Nordic countries. It describes cooperation between the national crime prevention councils and their common knowledge and value base. The Nordic countries can offer examples of successful crime prevention, but the fact that these societies with low repression are safe and perceived as safe can hardly be attributed solely to the activities of Nordic crime prevention.