Decolonisation and development in Burma

Over the last decade, economists have conducted numerous studies concerning trade barriers posed by national tariffs. In spite of this interest, few comprehensive analyses of transport barriers have been attempted. This seems surprising since transport costs, like tariffs, influence the magnitudes of trade flows, and types of goods exchanged internationally.

Recent changes in United States import statistics permit estimation of the incidence of international transport and insurance charges by product and by country. Using these records, this study shows that the overall ad valorem incidence of India's transport costs is approximately 14 per cent, or more than double current MFN tariffs. However, the spread between transport charges and tariffs is greater on some products of special export interest to India.

Analysis of the transport charges by processing stages shows that these costs escalate with increased fabrication. Thus, freight costs, like “tariffs, retard the growth of processing industries in India. This, plus the fact that India is at a sizeable cost disadvantage relative to its competitors, stresses the need for policies aimed at lowering the incidence of transport costs, or directing future export ventures, to areas where the shipping cost differential is less imposing.     

Is Germany Going Bananas? Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Party Performance in Germany from 1953 to 2049

In the public debate concerning the consequences of demographic change in Germany it is often argued that the rising share of older voters will help the CDU/CSU to consolidate its power. This argumentation only applies if the age effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. Based on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and Population Forecasts, the consequences of demographic shifts for federal elections since 1953 are estimated, as well as for future elections. First, age, cohort and period effects on vote choice for previous elections are calculated by using cohort analysis. Second, these effects are applied to the future age distribution. The results show that the ‘greying’ electorate is expected to favour the CDU/CSU and the FDP, while especially the SPD is likely to suffer electoral losses due to demographic shifts.     

Mine smartness and the community voice in mine-risk education: lessons from Afghanistan and Angola

Mine-risk education programmes will fall short of their intended impact for as long as they fail to take into account local responses—knowledge, logic and everyday practices—to mine threats. Community information, systematically collected through household and institutional surveys, can help to define and understand endogenous ‘mine smartness’. The same evidence provides insight into the impact of mine-risk education, including its unintended consequences. Using six criteria of mine smartness, ciet carried out evaluations of mine-risk education in Afghanistan (1997) and Angola (1999). The first clear lesson to be drawn from these evaluations is that people in mine-affected areas do generate their own broadly effective means of facing the daily threat of mines. The second lesson is that people take risks for reasons that make sense to them: ‘education’ that landmines are dangerous probably adds little value for them. The third lesson is that mine-risk education that does not take into account these first two lessons can cause harm. The evaluations produced evidence of unintended risk-taking by people exposed to mine-risk education programmes.     

European terrorism: A German perspective

Abstract

Concentrating on terrorism in West Germany, Italy, and the Basque provinces of Spain, the author presents a detailed picture of the motivations, the strategies, and the ‘'achievements” of a number of the best known groups which for alleged political purposes take the law into their own hands. The Red Armee Faction, perhaps the best known West German terrorist group, and the 2nd of June Movement as well as such organizations as the Revolutionary Cells and the Guerilla Diffusa are described and their aims and activities are scrutinized. German right‐wing terrorism is also shown to wield great power, its contacts with terrorists in Lebanon and Algeria rivaling those of leftist organizations. Italian terrorism is also fully covered in this paper, with the activities of the Red Brigades, the best‐known of the leftist organizations, and its international connections, as well as other groups and the individuals involved being dealt with in some detail. The events in Spain, past and present, due especially to Basque terrorism, are considered, and the Soviet influence, represented by terrorist organizations in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Cuba, is discussed as is also the outlook for the future.     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

“It Happens All the Time”: Women’s Experiences and Normalization of Sexual Harassment in Public Space

This study explored the prevalence of sexual harassment, consequences of harassment, and reasons for not reporting these experiences through a survey among Swedish female university students (N?=?1941). One fourth reported one or more incidents of sexual harassment during the 12 months period prior to the survey. Victims were more often younger and with Swedish-born parents compared with nonvictims. Victimization most frequently occurred at clubs or restaurants and the most frequently reported consequences were anger and worry about being victimized again. Few reported the incidents to the police making this, in part, an invisible problem.     

Agreement between ratings from self-rating scales and assessments by treatment staff concerning a group of adolescent males who have sexually offended

Abstract

Despite problems of validity, self-report measurements are used in clinical practice and research. The aim here was to compare self-ratings by adolescent males who had sexually offended with assessments of the same adolescents made by professionals. Results of two self-report questionnaires were compared with staff estimates. It was assumed that observability of behaviour, social desirability of the adolescents' responses, intellectual difficulties and the presence of neuropsychiatric problems would affect the level of agreement between participant and professional responses. Agreement between staff estimates and self-ratings was generally low. However, some results supported the assumptions: i.e. higher levels of agreement on observable behaviour, higher levels of agreement for adolescents scoring low on social desirability and, most obviously, lower levels of agreement for boys with neuropsychiatric diagnoses. Discrepancies between what adolescents say about themselves through self-ratings and how professionals perceive them cause problems in assessments that rely on self-rating measurements.     

Illegal entrepreneurs: a comparative study of the liquor trade in Stockholm and New Orleans 1920–1940

The 1920s were a golden period for smuggling in Nordic waters, as systems of prohibition were established in Finland, Norway and Iceland, while in Sweden an intricate system of rationing was implemented in 1917. A comparative study of the illegal liquor trade in Stockholm and New Orleans shows that the actual methods of smuggling were similar in the two cities. Mother ships brought the cargo to a point outside territorial waters, where it was shifted to smaller boats. These brought the liquor in through the archipelago of Stockholm or the bayous of the Mississippi delta. The relative lack of corruption in Sweden did not limit the extent of the black market. According to contemporary estimates, the amount of smuggled liquor was about the same in the two cities. The kind of alcohol that was brought in was different, however, and the value of the trade higher in New Orleans. Also, the organization of the trade differed, in terms of ownership and distribution. In neither city did the illegal entrepreneurs appear to be very violent. The fact that the rate of violence was much higher in New Orleans, than in Stockholm, did not seem to affect their business methods.