Choosing Sides in the European Iraq Conflict: A Test of New Geopolitical Theory

Abstract

Focusing on the Euro-Atlantic conflict over the Iraq war operation in early 2003 (the ‘European Iraq conflict’), the purpose of the present article is to explain the pattern of Atlantic (vs. Continental) predispositions among European countries. It argues that this is the best suited conflict in the post-Cold War era to illuminate this stable and fundamental pattern. Whereas systemic power distribution, size, public opinion, or government ideology all fail to account for the positioning of states in the conflict (and balance of threat applies only modestly), a theory of ‘past and present geopolitics’ is outlined that seems able to explain states’ predispositions and, hence, their positionings in this specific situation. It is remarkable that ‘old-fashioned’ geopolitical dynamics can be identified even within the Euro-Atlantic zone of ‘peace and prosperity’—not only at its fringes, but also in its very heart.     

Book reviews

European Democratization since 1800 edited by J. Garrard, V. Tolz and R. White. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000. Pp.x + 292; index. £45 (hardback). ISBN 0 3337 3894 2

Changing Party Systems in Western Europe edited by David Broughton and Mark Donovan. London: Pinter, 1999. Pp.315; index. £55 (hardback); £16.99 (paperback). ISBN 1 85567 327 4 and 328 2

How France Votes edited by M. Lewis‐Beck. New York and London: Chatham House, 2000. Pp.xi + 292; index. £18.99 (paperback). ISBN 1 56643 069 0

Democracy the Swedish Way: The 1999 SNS Democratic Audit of Sweden by Olof Petersson, Klaus von Beyme, Lauri Karvonen, Birgitta Nedelmann and Eivind Smith (trans. by Frank G. Perry). Stockholm: SNS Forlag, 1999. Pp.165; bibliography. SEK (Swedish crowns) 300 (paperback). ISBN 91 7150 7612

On My Country and the World by M. Gorbachev (trans. by G. Shriver). New York and Chichester: Columbia University Press and John Wiley, 2000. Pp.278; index. £19.00 (hardback). ISBN 0 231 11514 8

The Limits of Empire: The United States and Southeast Asia since World War II by Robert J. McMahon. New York: Columbia University Press, 1999. Pp.ix + 276; index; bibliographic essay; map. £36 (hardback); £13.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 231 10880 X and 10881 8

China's Political System: Modernization and Tradition by June Teufel Dreyer. Basingstoke: Macmillan Press, 2000. Pp xvii + 347; index. £16.50 (paperback). ISBN 0 333 91287 X

The Postcommunist Citizen edited by Samuel H. Barnes and Janos Simon. Budapest: Erasmus Foundation and Institute for Political Science of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 1998. Pp.272; index. NP (paperback). ISBN 963 03 5551 5

Federal Practice: Exploring Alternatives for Georgia and Abkhazia edited by Bruno Coppieters, David Darchiashvili and Natella Akaba. Brussels: VUB University Press, 2000. Pp.281. £14.45 (paperback). ISBN 90 5487 2381

Intellectual Politics in Post‐Tiananmen China, Social Text, No.55 edited by Xudong Zhang. Durham: Duke University Press, 1998. Pp.14. US$12 (paperback). ISBN 0 8223 6463 8

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Democracy and Decentralisation in South Asia and West Africa: Participation, Accountability and Performance by Richard C. Crook and James Manor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Pp.xvi + 335; index; bibliography. £45 (hardback); £15.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 521 63157 2 and 63647 7

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Contemporary Social and Political Theory: An Introduction by F. Ashe et al. Buckingham: Open University Press, 1999. Pp.xi + 209; glossary; bibliography; index. £45 (hardback); £14.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 335 19625 X and 19624 1

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The 1981 Netherlands election

The Left in France. By Neill Nugent and David Lowe. London: Macmillan, 1982. Pp. xi + 275. £15.000.

Contemporary French Political Parties. Edited by David S. Bell. London: Croom Helm, 1982. Pp. 199, £13.95.     

A Structure-Based Concept of Genocidal Intent

The concept of genocidal intent developed in this article startswith an analysis of the structural particularities of the crimeof genocide whose specific intent refers not only to the consequence(s)of personal conduct, but also to those of collective undertaking.The proposal submitted suggests understanding ‘intentto destroy a protected group as such’ as a particularkind of specific intent: formally as intention to achieve aconsequence which goes beyond the result that constitutes theactus reus. Materially, the proposed degree of intent refersto a two-fold approach which is based on a volitional (‘intent’)and/or a cognitive (‘certain knowledge’) element.Every element may be decisive depending on the mental stateof the accused: either by virtue of the underlying purpose orby virtue of a certainty standard. While the consequences ofthe perpetrator's own conduct must be virtually certain, theadequate threshold for the occurrence of the (intended) overallaction's result is practical certainty. In practice, such level(s)may be proven by exactly the same kind of circumstantial evidencecurrent case law has relied on.     

Competition in the Netherlands and Belgium: Service sector evidence

This paper examines competition in the Dutch and Belgian service sector for the period 1995–1999. The paper explores the link between firm profitability and market structure, and provides evidence of a non-optimal functioning of both markets. While analysis reveals the existence of a market sector effect in both countries, this effect is larger in the Dutch sample than in the Belgian sample, implying that the Dutch service sector is less competitive than the Belgian service sector. An analysis of the market friendliness of regulations in both countries does not provide a comprehensive explanation for this finding. JEL Classification: L12 · L16 · L51 · L80     

Seasonal Affective Disorder: Clerk Training and the Success of Supreme Court Certiorari Petitions

We investigate why the Supreme Court grants a smaller percentage of cases at the first conference of each term compared to other conferences. According to received wisdom, Supreme Court law clerks are overly cautious at the beginning of their tenure because they receive only a brief amount of training. Reputational concerns motivate clerks to provide fewer recommendations to grant review in cert. pool memos written over the summer months. Using a random sample of petitions from the Blackmun Archives, we code case characteristics, clerk recommendation, and the Court's decision on cert. Nearest neighbor matching suggests clerks are 36 percent less likely to recommend grants in their early cert. pool memos. Because of this temporal discrepancy, petitions arriving over the summer have a 16 percent worse chance of being granted by the Court. This seasonal variation in access to the Court's docket imposes a legally irrelevant burden on litigants who have little control over the timing of their appeal.     

Die erforderlichen Abstände zwischen Betrieben nach der Störfall-Verordnung und Wohngebieten oder anderen schutzwürdigen Bereichen nach § 50 S. 1 BImSchG

In der Bundesrepublik gibt es rund 8000 Anlagen, die der so genannten Seveso-II-Richtlinie – Richtlinie zur Beherrschung der Gefahren bei schweren Unf?llen mit gef?hrlichen Stoffen (Seveso-II-RL) – und damit der nationalen St?rfall-Verordnung (St?rfallV) unterliegen. Davon liegen, insbesondere in dicht besiedelten Regionen, zahlreiche Anlagen in unmittelbarer N?he zu anderen Projekten, wie beispielsweise Flugh?fen oder Wohn- und Siedlungsgebieten. Inzwischen gibt es Empfehlungen für Abst?nde zwischen Anlagen nach der St?rfallV und Wohngebieten. Der Beitrag stellt dar, wann diese Abst?nde einzuhalten sind und ob diese Regelungen auf naturschutzfachlich schutzwürdige Bereiche übertragen werden k?nnen.