Analysis of Structural Variability in Budget-Making

Incrementalism as a decision theory about budget-making is empirically evaluated by post-war data within the framework of budget-making processes of some Swedish public authorities. The analysis focuses on the relevance of a structural stability hypothesis using models for the processes of budget requests and appropriations. This hypothesis is tested by CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests. The more powerful CUSUMQ test clearly indicates a rejection of the stability assumption, which implies a need for revised models based on variability assumptions. These alternative models describing budget-making processes are estimated by Kalman filtering, an estimation approach designed to allow for structural variability. The paper shows that the key decision principles of incrementalism are too crude for the understanding of budget decisions.     

Differentiation of ballpoint pen inks by thermodesorption and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

Differentiation and classification of ink entries with dated samples of a reference collection are important aspects in the examination of questioned documents. Classification of writing inks is presently achieved by analysis of dyes and colorants contained in the ink. This technique has its limitations in newly developed ink formulations with identical dye composition but differing in their solvents and binder resins. This paper introduces a method for the determination of solvents and binder resins of an ink sample directly from paper without sample preparation. This aim is accomplished by thermodesorption of the sample followed by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy. The method was tested on numerous samples of ballpoint pen inks, which were subsequently grouped into several solvent and resin subgroups. A case study shows the applicability of the newly developed method.     

Fatal stun gun injury using a modified animal sedation gun

A 54-year-old butcher attempted to commit suicide with a manipulated "humane killer". He removed the recoil spring, the rubber bush and also the screw forming the muzzle end, which to our knowledge has never been described in a case report before. Due to this manipulation the entire bolt left the weapon, as a free projectile, penetrated the forehead and lodged inside the skull, from where it could not be removed neurosurgically. The patient died from the consequences of the severe cerebral injury 3 days later.     

A Crisis of Party?*

The debate about the (future) role of political parties in modern democracies suffers from generally unacknowledged normative preconceptions as well as a tendency to reason in terms of ‘inevitable’ social processes, rather than precise theoretical reasoning or empirical analysis. At least four distinct bodies of thought affect the discussion about the assumed crisis of party: (1) the view that parties are a danger to the good society, leading to the denial of parties as legitimate actors; (2) the belief that some types of parties are ‘good’ and others ‘bad’, causing a selective rejection of parties; (3) the proposition that certain party systems are ‘good’ and others ‘bad’, resulting in a selective rejection of party systems; and (4) the affirmation that parties are becoming redundant. The latter suggestion is shown in a variety of approaches -e. g. the idea that parties are transient agents of democratization, the analysis of parties as mere market-forces, the assumption that parties do not matter in policies, and the view, as exemplified by neocorporatism, that parties inevitably lose their functions to other political actors. The pervasive presence of aprioristic views suggests the need for a conceptual house-cleaning, the importance of distinguishing normative from empirical arguments, and the need for more detailed empirical research, giving due weight to differences between countries, party systems, parties and periods instead of postulating inexorable trends.     

Permitting Jury Discussions During Trial: Impact of the Arizona Reform

A field experiment tested the effect of an Arizona civil jury reform that allows jurors to discuss evidence among themselves during the trial. Judges, jurors, attorneys, and litigants completed questionnaires in trials randomly assigned to either a Trial Discussions condition, in which jurors were permitted to discuss the evidence during trial, or a No Discussions condition, in which jurors were prohibited from discussing the evidence during trial according to traditional admonitions. Judicial agreement with jury verdicts did not differ between conditions. Permitting jurors to discuss the evidence did affect the degree of certainty that jurors reported about their preferences at the start of jury deliberations, the level of conflict on the jury, and the likelihood of reaching unanimity.     

Social capital in microfinance: Case studies in the Philippines

The present study examines how formation of social capital in themicrofinance sector is affected by enlarging the political or economicresources of the informal groups of poor households and microfinanceinstitutions (MFIs) that contribute to social cohesion. In particular, thischapter attempts to show how the regulatory and supervisory framework as wellas the financial innovations of microfinance institutions have affected poorhouseholds capacity for cooperation and mutual support in their fightagainst poverty.     

Skin changes following defibrillation. The effect of high voltage direct current

Previously, electrical injuries have been suggested caused only by the concomitant heat developed during the passage of an electrical current. Recent experimental studies on fully anesthetized pigs and the study of one human case have, however, shown typical electrical alterations. The purpose of the present study was further to evaluate the histology of electrically induced changes in the skin in humans. In addition, supplementary in vivo methods for evaluation of skin changes as high-frequency ultrasound and Raman spectroscopy were used. The skin of 11 patients treated with a defibrillation of the heart was examined for macroscopic changes, the skin of eight of them also for histologic changes and for changes observable via supplementary methods. Immediately and 7 days after the defibrillation, fractions of a narrow red ring were observed along the periphery of the tin-foil electrode. Epidermis showed signs previously observed following electrical influence: segmental alterations often related to the openings of sweat ducts, darkstaining or "empty" nuclei and homogeneous cytoplasm, eosinophilic or pale. Dermis did not show the specific sign of electrical influence: deposits of calcium salts on dermal fibres, neither via histologic examination nor via high-frequency ultrasonography and Raman spectroscopy. Fractions of a narrow red ring along the periphery of the electrode showing histological signs of electric influence in epidermis thus appear to be characteristic of high voltage electrical injury.