Low self-control and imprudent behavior

Gottfredson and Hirschi'sA General Theory of Crime contends that individual differences in involvement in criminal and analogous behavior are due largely to individual differences in the personality trait they call low self-control. Among the various behaviors considered analogous to crime are imprudent behaviors such as smoking, drinking, and gambling. This research explores the generality of Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory by examining the link between low self-control and these imprudent behaviors. The results are mixed. In support of the theory, the data reveal a modest but significant effect of a scale designed to capture the various components of low self-control on an index of imprudent behavior. A more detailed analysis, however, reveals that some of the components of low self-control, specifically those probably linked to low intelligence, detract from the scale's predictive power. In fact, one of the components, risk-seeking, is more predictive than the more inclusive scale. Furthermore, one of the imprudent acts, smoking, appears to be unaffected by low self-control. These contradictory findings suggest the need for theoretical refinements.     

Longitudinal neighborhood profiles in delinquency: The decomposition of change

The methods that traditionally have been used to examine changing spatial distributions of crime and delinquency rates are not able to analyze parsimoniously the full range of within-community variation in these rates over time. In this paper, we present a variant of Bryk and Raudenbush's(Psychol. Bull. 101: 147–158, 1987) hierarchical linear model that can simultaneously examine the full range of within- and between-group variation contained in longitudinal data sets. The method is illustrated through an analysis of the delinquency rates characterizing Chicago's neighborhoods between 1930 and 1970.     

Forecasting highway casualties: The British road safety act and a sense of déja vu

This paper reexamines the effect of the introduction of the British Road Safety Act of 1967. We construct a dynamic model relating monthly road casualties to road traffic, rainfall, and alcohol consumption, standardizing for the seasonality in the data. An intervention variable captures the effect of the Road Safety Act. The findings confirm Ross's earlier conclusion that the Road Safety Act significantly reduces casualties. However, we find that the Road Safety Act only accounts for 2.7 percent of the variance in road casualties, while miles-driven and rainfall account for 48.8 percent, and alcohol consumption explains 4.2 percent. Our model forecasts accurately for 24 months beyond December, 1972, the last month used for estimation.     

The influence of police interventions and alternative income sources on the dynamic process of choosing crime as a career

This paper demonstrates how a rational process of choice may be influenced by both deterrence forces and economic opportunities. This choice is modeled by a dynamic (Markov) process which captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. in crime. A key to the results is the introduction of the perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. The analysis shows how this force and the availability, or lack of, economic opportunities or income sources modify transition probabilities. The long-run consequences will be a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime but subsequently revert to crime-free behavior and a smaller subpopulation of individuals who commit a greater share of crime. Empirical evidence is based on data from the New Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys.