How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

On urban homicide: A statistical analysis

A statistical analysis is made of homicide rates in the 50 largest American cities for four different years. It is shown that differences in recent murder growth among the cities can largely be explained as typical random fluctuations about a common trend. It is also found that the changing age profile of the American people explains no more than ten percent of the increase in homicide since 1964. Several mathematical models for future homicide growth are proposed from the analysis, and under each the probability of death by murder and corresponding drop in life expectancy are estimated for individuals born now in each of the 50 cities.