A comment on methodological concerns: A rejoinder

This rejoinder to Professor Cohen's Comment is intended to elaborate on approaches we utilized in our original paper. Some of our specification was necessitated by data availability (e.g., the specification of the sanction process). We attempt to clarify our approach in regard to the intervention process. We provide an explanation of the modeling that could underly a test of the hypothesis that the control effect is a product of the arrest process—a test that we had regarded as informative but peripheral to our main points. As noted, a significant part of that test utilizes the full range of control variables available to us. Finally, we enumerate what we felt to be the main points of our paper—points we are afraid might otherwise be lost in this discussion of methodology.     

Wrestling Sprawl to the Ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept

Abstract

The literature on urban sprawl confuses causes, consequences, and conditions. This article presents a conceptual definition of sprawl based on eight distinct dimensions of land use patterns: density, continuity, concentration, clustering, centrality, nuclearity mixed uses, and proximity. Sprawl is defined as a condition of land use that is represented by low values on one or more of these dimensions.

Each dimension is operationally defined and tested in 13 urbanized areas. Results for six dimensions are reported for each area, and an initial comparison of the extent of sprawl in the 13 areas is provided. The test confirms the utility of the approach and suggests that a clearer conceptual and operational definition can facilitate research on the causes and consequences of sprawl.     

‘Sustainable development’ and the environment

The Sociology of Modernization and Development. By David Harrison. London: Unwin Hyman, 1988. Pp.xvi + 196 £30 and £10.95. ISBN 0 04 301220 5 and 301221 3.

Theories of Development: Capitalism, Colonialism and Dependency. By Jorge Larrain. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1989. Pp.ix + 252. £29.50 and £8.95. ISBN 07456 0710 1 and 0711 X.

The Globalisation of High Technology Production: Society Space and Semiconductors in the Restructuring of the Modern World. By Jeffrey Henderson. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xxiii + 198 £30. ISBN 0 415 03139 7.

Conflict Resolution in Uganda. Edited by Kumar Rupesinghe. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute (Peace Research Monograph No.16), 1989. Pp.307. £25 (hardback), £9.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85255 334 X and 333 1.

Growing Out of Debt. By Adrian Hewitt and Bowen Wells. Nottingham: Russell Press for the Overseas Development Institute for the All Party Parliamentary Group on Overseas Development. Pp.83. £4.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85003 1214.

Oil in the World Economy. Edited by R.W. Ferrier and A. Fursenko. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xii + 113. £35. ISBN 0 415 00379 2.

Industrial Adjustment in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Edited by Gerald M. Meier and William F. Steel. Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1989. Pp. xvi + 293. £22.50. ISBN 0 19 520784 X.

Farm Implements for Small‐scale Farmers in Tanzania. By Bjorn Mothander, Finn Kjaerby and Kjell Havnevik. Uppsala: The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1989. Pp.214. SEK 120. ISBN 91 7106 290 4.

Urban Poverty and the Labour Market: Access to Jobs and Incomes in Asian and Latin American Cities. Edited by Gerry Rodgers. Geneva: International Labour Office, 1989. Pp.xv + 257. Sw. frs. 35. ISBN 92 2 106499 9 and 106500 6.     

Low self-control and imprudent behavior

Gottfredson and Hirschi'sA General Theory of Crime contends that individual differences in involvement in criminal and analogous behavior are due largely to individual differences in the personality trait they call low self-control. Among the various behaviors considered analogous to crime are imprudent behaviors such as smoking, drinking, and gambling. This research explores the generality of Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory by examining the link between low self-control and these imprudent behaviors. The results are mixed. In support of the theory, the data reveal a modest but significant effect of a scale designed to capture the various components of low self-control on an index of imprudent behavior. A more detailed analysis, however, reveals that some of the components of low self-control, specifically those probably linked to low intelligence, detract from the scale's predictive power. In fact, one of the components, risk-seeking, is more predictive than the more inclusive scale. Furthermore, one of the imprudent acts, smoking, appears to be unaffected by low self-control. These contradictory findings suggest the need for theoretical refinements.     

Longitudinal neighborhood profiles in delinquency: The decomposition of change

The methods that traditionally have been used to examine changing spatial distributions of crime and delinquency rates are not able to analyze parsimoniously the full range of within-community variation in these rates over time. In this paper, we present a variant of Bryk and Raudenbush's(Psychol. Bull. 101: 147–158, 1987) hierarchical linear model that can simultaneously examine the full range of within- and between-group variation contained in longitudinal data sets. The method is illustrated through an analysis of the delinquency rates characterizing Chicago's neighborhoods between 1930 and 1970.     

Forecasting highway casualties: The British road safety act and a sense of déja vu

This paper reexamines the effect of the introduction of the British Road Safety Act of 1967. We construct a dynamic model relating monthly road casualties to road traffic, rainfall, and alcohol consumption, standardizing for the seasonality in the data. An intervention variable captures the effect of the Road Safety Act. The findings confirm Ross's earlier conclusion that the Road Safety Act significantly reduces casualties. However, we find that the Road Safety Act only accounts for 2.7 percent of the variance in road casualties, while miles-driven and rainfall account for 48.8 percent, and alcohol consumption explains 4.2 percent. Our model forecasts accurately for 24 months beyond December, 1972, the last month used for estimation.