The politics of minority statistics

Harold Orlans, of Chevy Chase, Maryland, was formerly on the staff of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. His books include The Nonprofit Research Institute, Contracting for Knowledge, Private Accreditation and Public Eligibility,and Nonprofit Organizations.Philip Lyons helped to gather the information in this article.     

Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations

The need for improved long-run projections of prison populations has increased in recent years because of record-high numbers of inmates and severe overcrowding in state and federal prisons, and because of the growing importance of changing demographic factors in influencing corrections populations. A model is developed for projecting: general population demographics; demographic- and offense-specific arrest rates, imprisonment probabilities, and times served; and then the size and composition of prison populations. Model parameters are estimated for Pennsylvania and are shown to be sensitive to demographic factors, particularly age and race. Projections of future arrests, prison commitments, and prison population are developed for Pennsylvania using projections of demographic changes in the state's population. Arrests are expected to peak in 1980, prison commitments are expected to peak in 1985, and prison populations are expected to peak in 1990, with the subsequent declines reflecting the maturation of the postwar baby boom children out of the highly crime-prone ages and, somewhat later, out of the highly prison-prone ages.     

A comment on methodological concerns: A rejoinder

This rejoinder to Professor Cohen's Comment is intended to elaborate on approaches we utilized in our original paper. Some of our specification was necessitated by data availability (e.g., the specification of the sanction process). We attempt to clarify our approach in regard to the intervention process. We provide an explanation of the modeling that could underly a test of the hypothesis that the control effect is a product of the arrest process—a test that we had regarded as informative but peripheral to our main points. As noted, a significant part of that test utilizes the full range of control variables available to us. Finally, we enumerate what we felt to be the main points of our paper—points we are afraid might otherwise be lost in this discussion of methodology.     

Wrestling Sprawl to the Ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept

Abstract

The literature on urban sprawl confuses causes, consequences, and conditions. This article presents a conceptual definition of sprawl based on eight distinct dimensions of land use patterns: density, continuity, concentration, clustering, centrality, nuclearity mixed uses, and proximity. Sprawl is defined as a condition of land use that is represented by low values on one or more of these dimensions.

Each dimension is operationally defined and tested in 13 urbanized areas. Results for six dimensions are reported for each area, and an initial comparison of the extent of sprawl in the 13 areas is provided. The test confirms the utility of the approach and suggests that a clearer conceptual and operational definition can facilitate research on the causes and consequences of sprawl.     

‘Sustainable development’ and the environment

The Sociology of Modernization and Development. By David Harrison. London: Unwin Hyman, 1988. Pp.xvi + 196 £30 and £10.95. ISBN 0 04 301220 5 and 301221 3.

Theories of Development: Capitalism, Colonialism and Dependency. By Jorge Larrain. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1989. Pp.ix + 252. £29.50 and £8.95. ISBN 07456 0710 1 and 0711 X.

The Globalisation of High Technology Production: Society Space and Semiconductors in the Restructuring of the Modern World. By Jeffrey Henderson. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xxiii + 198 £30. ISBN 0 415 03139 7.

Conflict Resolution in Uganda. Edited by Kumar Rupesinghe. Oslo: International Peace Research Institute (Peace Research Monograph No.16), 1989. Pp.307. £25 (hardback), £9.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85255 334 X and 333 1.

Growing Out of Debt. By Adrian Hewitt and Bowen Wells. Nottingham: Russell Press for the Overseas Development Institute for the All Party Parliamentary Group on Overseas Development. Pp.83. £4.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 85003 1214.

Oil in the World Economy. Edited by R.W. Ferrier and A. Fursenko. London: Routledge, 1989. Pp.xii + 113. £35. ISBN 0 415 00379 2.

Industrial Adjustment in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Edited by Gerald M. Meier and William F. Steel. Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1989. Pp. xvi + 293. £22.50. ISBN 0 19 520784 X.

Farm Implements for Small‐scale Farmers in Tanzania. By Bjorn Mothander, Finn Kjaerby and Kjell Havnevik. Uppsala: The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1989. Pp.214. SEK 120. ISBN 91 7106 290 4.

Urban Poverty and the Labour Market: Access to Jobs and Incomes in Asian and Latin American Cities. Edited by Gerry Rodgers. Geneva: International Labour Office, 1989. Pp.xv + 257. Sw. frs. 35. ISBN 92 2 106499 9 and 106500 6.