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Harold D. Lasswell 《Policy Sciences》1971,2(4):439-446
The rapid emergence of the policy science conception is a consequence of profound changes in the modern world, and in turn is affecting public and private decision. In broad outline European civilization has passed from a high level of homogeneity to increasing fragmentation, and more recently toward a new and comprehensive configurative outlook.(1) The differentiation of the modern world fostered the fragmentation of intellectual life. It reduced the relative number of men of knowledge who gave attention to the map of knowledge as a whole, or to the social consequences and policy implications of science and scholarship.(2) At a later stage of differentiation specialists attain a high level of involvement in the policy processes of society. Increasingly they utilize a configurative approach to the advancement and application of knowledge.(3) At first, special and exclusive interests are multiplied by differentiation and fragmentation. As the aggregate impact of men of knowledge expands, particular demands are made more universal. This is a by-product of coalition formation.(4) Configurative ways of thinking do not necessarily result in effective control by champions of democratic and peaceful policy aims unless genuine freedom of access to knowledge—to data banks—is maintained, realistic common interests are unlikely to be defined either by policy scientists or decisionmakers.Distinguished Professor of Policy Sciences, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York; Ford Foundation Professor Emeritus of the Social Sciences and Law, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. 相似文献
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Thomas J. Scotto Harold D. Clarke Allan Kornberg Jason Reifler David Sanders Marianne C. Stewart Paul Whiteley 《Electoral Studies》2010,29(4):545-556
In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency. 相似文献
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The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain. 相似文献
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Hamm RM Reiss DM Paul RK Bursztajn HJ 《International journal of law and psychiatry》2007,30(4-5):416-426
ObjectiveTo describe the prevalence of inadequately evaluated and treated psychopathology among insured workers making workers' compensation claims for psychiatric disability whose cases were reviewed by one forensic psychiatrist. To assess the relationship of inadequate evaluation and treatment to the outcomes of these workers' compensation claims.MethodsRecords of a series of 185 workers' compensation cases reviewed in 1998 and 1999 by a California forensic psychiatrist were abstracted. Patient factors (gender, Axis II pathology, psychosocial circumstances, substance abuse), case factors (psychiatric injury secondary to physical injury, or secondary to psychological stresses), type of provider (mental health, or other), adequacy of evaluation and treatment, forensic psychiatrist's recommendation, and claim outcome were categorized. The relationships between case characteristics, adequacy of care, and claim outcome were described.Results22% of cases had adequate evaluation, 48% superficial, and 30% had no evaluation. 11% had adequate treatment, 67% superficial, and 22% had no treatment. Compared to claims for psychiatric disability related to a physical injury, claims related to psychosocial stresses more often had superficial diagnostic evaluations and treatments. Those with superficial treatment were less likely to have their claim granted (19.3%) than those with no treatment (47.5%) or those with adequate treatment (36.8%). Success of claim was not related to provider type.ConclusionsThe majority of the studied workers with employer-provided health insurance who sought workers' compensation for disability due to mental illness did so inappropriately, in that the workplace did not cause the psychopathology. Their seeking workers' compensation was plausibly due to the observed inadequate evaluation and treatment available through their employer-provided health insurance. The adequacy of their care influenced the likelihood their claim would be granted. The relations observed here merit further research to establish their generality and to determine their causes. 相似文献
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Harold D. Lasswell 《政治交往》2013,30(2):107-125
This study of the main evening television news programs in four European countries focuses on the framing of news surrounding a major European event, the January 1, 1999, introduction of the common European currency, the euro. We investigated the visibility of political and economic news in general and of the launch of the euro in particular. We found variations across countries in the emphasis on political and economic news, with the proportion of the newscast normally devoted to these subjects ranging from 45% to 60%. Journalists in all countries were more likely to emphasize conflict (rather than economic consequences) in framing general political and economic news. In the coverage of the launch of the euro, there was a greater emphasis on framing the news in terms of economic consequences. The findings are discussed in terms of influences on framing practices internal and external to journalism and the value of the cross-national comparative approach. 相似文献