Conditional Race Disparities in Criminal Sentencing: A Test of the Liberation Hypothesis From a Non-Guidelines State

Objectives

To test the liberation hypothesis in a judicial context unconstrained by sentencing guidelines.

Methods

We examined cross-sectional sentencing data (n = 17,671) using a hurdle count model, which combines a binary (logistic regression) model to predict zero counts and a zero-truncated negative binomial model to predict positive counts. We also conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that the hurdle count model provides unbiased estimates of our sentencing data and outperforms alternative approaches.

Results

For the liberation hypothesis, results of the interaction terms for race x offense severity and race x criminal history varied by decision type. For the in/out decision, criminal history moderated the effects of race: among offenders with less extensive criminal histories blacks were more likely to be incarcerated; among offenders with higher criminal histories this race effect disappeared. The race x offense severity interaction was not significant for the in/out decision. For the sentence length decision, offense severity moderated the effects of race: among offenders convicted of less serious crimes blacks received longer sentences than whites; among offenders convicted of crimes falling in the most serious offense categories the race effect became non-significant for Felony D offenses and transitioned to a relative reduction for blacks for the most serious Felony A, B, and C categories. The race x criminal history interaction was not significant for the length decision.

Conclusions

There is some support for the liberation hypothesis in this test from a non-guidelines jurisdiction. The findings suggest, however, that the decision to incarcerate and the sentence length decision may employ different processes in which the interactions between race and seriousness measures vary.

     

Recidivism after Fines,Suspended Sentences,and Imprisonment

In 1969 the Federal Republic of Germany abolished almost totally short prison terms in favor of fines. Between 1968 and 1971 the proportion of prison sentences was reduced by way of penal law reform from 23% to 7%. A corresponding decline in the number of prisoners per 100,000 could be observed within this period, too: whereas about 100/100,000 were incarcerated in 1969, the rate of incarceration in 1971 was 66/100,000. The dramatic decline in the number of prison sentences as well as in the number of prison inmates led to apprehensions that this change in sentencing policy might result in increasing rates of recidivism. A comparative analysis of recidivism after fines, prison sentences, as well as suspended sentences, was carried out in order to provide empirical evidence concerning this question.     

Fines and Justice Administration: The Experience of the Federal Republic of Germany

As part of the penal code revised in 1969, the Federal Republic of Germany increased its reliance on fines, including the introduction of day-fines, in lieu of short-term imprisonment for minor offenses. The previous trend toward the use of fines was accelerated by the requirement that courts order imprisonment only in exceptional cases. Traffic cases were particularly affected. The qualities of the offense and the absence of previous offenses, rather than an individualized study of the offender, continued to be the dominant criterium influencing the choice of a fine. The chief effect of day fines was higher amounts applied to the more affluent defendants; the amount of the fine appeared to have no effect on subsequent recidivism. For first offenders, fines were superior to imprisonment in avoiding reconviction. Day-fines were no more effective (but not less effective) than imprisonment in the instance of traffic offenses. Fines were superior to other sanctions for petty property offenders but not for career thieves.     

Theory building: issues and an agenda

There is a growing recognition of the need to change the way research is conducted in management. In addition, there is an increasing belief that the philosophy of science can be applied to the research methods and standards normally employed in the study of organizations. Several recent contributions to the literature of management have indicated what must be done. Yet in many key respects, little progress has been made. This paper (1) considers the current status of theory development in management, (2) examines the approach offered by the natural sciences, (3) discusses the obstacles to implementation of the pure sciences approach, and (4) suggests what can be done to enhance the exposition and construction of theories.