Predicting symmetry in female/male crime rates

This paper examines changes in female criminality. Data were obtained from 1943 through 1998 on six index crimes: murder, robbery, assault, burglary, auto theft, and larceny. Rape and arson are not included because rape is almost exclusively a male crime, while statistics for arson have not been consistent for the period studied. A review of the literature on female crime is presented. Percentage differences between males and females were obtained for specific crimes for each year. A regression line was computed for this difference by year. Each line is characterized by R², as a measure of confidence in future predictions and “b” levels to determine slope, and the expected year in which male and female crime will achieve equality if current trends continue. The authors also suggest using the year generated as an index on which to compare growth or decline of female crime.     

The Coalition and the Decline of Majoritarianism in the UK

The United Kingdom has traditionally featured many aspects of the majoritarian model of democracy: its first‐past‐the‐post electoral system tends towards producing single‐party majorities, while its legislative decision rules concentrate policy‐making power in the hands of the resulting single‐party governments. However, in an unprecedented break with the UK's postwar conventions, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats formed a coalition following the general election of 2010. In this article, we examine some of the Coalition's impacts on governing and constitutional conventions, placing them in a comparative European context. We conclude that the Coalition reflects a shift towards the less majoritarian forms of politics prevalent in continental Europe, and that some of these changes are likely to persist even after the end of the current government.     

The case of two trials: Father-son incest

Although efforts for investigating and prosecuting child abuse cases have increased little attention has been paid to juror response to child testimony. This paper, developed as part of a pilot study to test a questionnaire for polling jurors' opinions in child sexual abuse cases, analyzes a case in which there was a reversal of outcome at retrial. Poll results of the jurors' opinions suggest the need for testimony from law enforcement and child sexual abuse experts to explain children's perception, memory, and recall of a reported experience.     

Dead Man Walking: The Affective Roots of Issue Proximity Between Voters and Parties

Do voters like the party they already agree with or do they agree with the party they already like? Previous studies have suggested a link from preferences to perceptions. However, such a causal link has not been convincingly demonstrated. Most issue voting studies have adopted the basic premise of spatial models of voting—that voters compare parties’ positions with their own ideal points and apply a rule to choose among these parties. Drawing on a natural experiment, this study shows that perceptual agreement between parties and voters is endogenous to voters’ party affect. We use the murder of a Dutch politician amidst the data collection period of the 2002 Dutch election study. The death increases respondents’ feelings for his party without providing information about its issue stances. This upward shift in feelings translates into a significant increase in the perceived level of proximity with the party. The design also allows us to explore the mechanism bringing parties and voters closer. Rather than taking up the party’s stances, voters move a party’s positions closer to their own views when their feelings for that party increase. The findings challenge established assumptions about the theoretical underpinnings of spatial models of voting. They support classic notions of voter projection and lend credence to recent theories of attitudinal change, which are based on coarse thinking and uninformative updating.     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.