East Germany as a unique case of societal transformation: Main characteristics and emergent misconceptions

This article examines the process of economic transformation in the new German Länder, addressing some of the misconceptions which surround it. First, it questions the concept of ‘shock therapy’. In contrast to other post‐communist countries, east Germans were cushioned from the full force of the transformation to a market economy by government policy which opted for gradualist rather than radical measures. Second, it is argued that the prejudicial effects of the ‘colonisation paradigm’ have been greatly exaggerated. Although key decision centres in political parties and organised interests were located in the west, the new Länder derived considerable benefit from the institutional transfer of a functioning system of interest representation. How then do we explain negative perceptions of economic change in the east? It is argued that these are the result of a failure to prepare the east German people for the difficulties ahead. By postponing problems and prolonging economic hardship, the gradualist road to transformation is inevitably accompanied by a deepening sense of dissatisfaction and resentment at the slow pace of economic take‐off.     

Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004

The war in Iraq, so the widely accepted view, hurt the reelection of George W. Bush. We contend, to the contrary, that the war helped him get reelected. First, we show that his victory fits the dominant pattern of wartime elections in American history. Second, we find that Bush’s approval ratings benefited from a complex rally where the Iraq war prolonged rather than diminished the 9/11 effect; most Americans affirmed rather than disputed a link between the war in Iraq and the war on terror. Third, while Bush’s approval proves sensitive to U.S. casualties in the Iraq war, any damage to his standing prior to the election was mitigated by sufficient popular support for that war. And finally, on Election Day, Bush was able to garner the vote of two critical blocks with favorable feelings about the Iraq war, be it the decision to invade or the prospect of success.

Die Vergemeinschaftung des Kollisionsrechts der außervertraglichen Schuldverhältnisse durch Rom II

Mit der am 11. Juli 2007 verabschiedeten, zum 11. Januar 2009 in Kraft tretenden sog "Rom II-Verordnung" werden weite Teile des bis dahin überwiegend auf autonome oder staatsvertragliche Wurzeln zurückgehenden Kollisionsrechts der au?ervertraglichen Schuldverh?ltnisse europaweit einheitlich neu geregelt. Die auf diese Weise erreichte Rechtsharmonisierung stellt nicht zuletzt mit Blick auf die inhaltliche Bandbreite der Regelungsgegenst?nde einen Meilenstein in der Vergemeinschaftung des internationalen Privatrechts dar. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht – erstmals seit Verabschiedung der Verordnung – die zu erwartenden Auswirkungen auf die geltende ?sterreichische Rechtslage.     

Asymmetric contests with liquidity constraints

We consider two bidders with asymmetric valuations competing to win an exogenous prize. Capital markets are imperfect, such that the contestants possibly face a liquidity constraint. We show that aggregate investments are lower if at least one bidder has a liquidity constraint, even if the low-valuation bidder possibly increases his/her investments. Furthermore, the effect of the high-valuation bidder’s liquidity constraint on competitive balance is ambiguous. However, if the low-valuation bidder is constrained, greater wealth unambiguously increases competitive balance. Surprisingly, if the low-valuation bidder has a constraint, a tighter constraint can increase his/her profit.     

On the political and fiscal determinants of income redistribution under federalism and democracy: evidence from Germany

Several recent studies suggest that transfers from central to regional governments are motivated by political considerations. In this paper we examine if this is also the case for transfers from regional to central governments in the context of the German fiscal equalization system. We examine the factors that contribute to differences in tax revenues across German states. The evidence indicates that both fiscal incentives and political factors can explain these differences, although in Germany the former are more important. Moreover, accounting for fiscal institutions has important consequences for the empirical assessment of political influences on taxation. Overall we find that the political affiliation of the state governor is an important factor in explaining differences in state tax revenues. Thus, the right-wing party (CDU/CSU) is effective in relaxing the tax burden at the state level. In contrast, partisan alignment between the state government and the federal government loses its importance once fiscal conditions enter the empirical model.     

Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections

We use our “PM and Pendulum” Model to forecast the outcome of the 2010 General election. The vote function of the model, aside from a cyclical dynamic, relies on approval of the prime minister as the sole predictor. We find that PM Approval predicts the vote (and vote intention between elections) more accurately than does Government Approval. Turning to the forecasting of seats, we examine the accuracy of the autoregressive model of the vote-seat translation against the uniform-swing model, which is widely used by pollsters and the media. Testing the alternatives on election data since 1910, our autoregressive vote-seat translation model proves superior to the uniform-swing model.     

King Faisal ibn Abdul Aziz Al Saud in the arena of world politics: a glimpse from Washington, 1950 to 1971

This paper aims to draw a portrait of King Faisal, as it emerges from the records of the various presidential administrations of the USA. The records which were available to me usually originate from the encounters of the heads of state and their ministers on the occasion of official visits. Despite ceremonial protocol and diplomatic courteousness, the encounters always also had a personal touch of character and emotion. Therefore we do not simply look at the portrait through an American mirror. No doubt, the documents at hand do contain specific perceptions of King Faisal and of Saudi society by the various administrations in Washington. On the other hand, the mere fact of the King's physical presence and verbal performance in those encounters brings authenticity to the fore. Because of the fairly wide range of topics on the political agenda of such state visits, the portrait sheds light on King Faisal's personality, public appearance and sense of humour, on his statesmanship as well as on his diplomacy and commitments in the arena of Middle Eastern politics and of international relations at large. Since it seems to me that the year 1966 is of particular significance for an assessment of King Faisal's political legacy in the Middle Eastern arena, I have depicted his visit in Washington and meeting with President L.B. Johnson in June of that year for a more comprehensive treatment. In contrast, Faisal's personal encounters with Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy and later on—twice—with Richard Nixon are dealt with more cursorily.1 The sources for this paper were not really collected in any systematic fashion. Rather, they came my way in the course of a research project with a different, although related topic (see Helmut Mejcher, Sinai, 5 giugno 1967. Il conflitto arabo‐israeliano (Bologna: Società editrice il Mulino, 2000). On the other hand, it is not a random collection either. As I said before, the documents focus on the diplomatic highlights of official visits of the King and Crown Prince in Washington. View all notes