Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

Key Risk Factors for Relapse and Rearrest Among Substance Use Treatment Patients Involved in the Criminal Justice System

Substance use treatment programs for criminal justice populations have great potential for crime reduction, if they can effectively manage patients’ risk for relapse and rearrest. The current study used data drawn from the Comprehensive Assessment and Treatment Outcome Research (CATOR) system, a national registry of substance use treatment programs, which collected patient outcome data at 6- and 12-month intervals following discharge from treatment. The primary objective was to examine sets of factors that may compromise relapse and rearrest outcomes among patients who were court mandated to participate in treatment. Findings demonstrated that patients’ clinical severity of substance use was associated with relapse, which also significantly increased the probability of post-treatment arrest. Adolescent risk behaviors represented another set of risk factors, particularly among patients who experienced the most severe pattern of relapse and arrest outcomes. Additionally, demographic risk factors, including age, marital status (i.e., single or unmarried relative to married), employment (i.e., being unemployed compared to employed), and lower educational attainment were consistently linked to higher probabilities of relapse and rearrest. Treatment programs for criminal justice populations should consider incorporating appropriate clinical risk assessment measures, behavioral risk assessments, and appropriate employment interventions into standard treatment programming in an effort to improve outcomes.     

That’s Why the Lady Lost to the Trump: Demographics and the 2016 Presidential Election

I examine the relationship between demographics and vote choice using pre-election tracking polls, exit polls, and data on the American states. A number of important findings emerge: (1) there was a fair amount of preference stability in 2016; (2) Clinton underperformed Obama in 83% of demographic groups examined; (3) at the state level, the percent of whites with low levels of education and the size of the rural population had important effects on vote choice, and both of those variables were more strongly correlated with Democratic vote share in 2016 than in 2012; and (4) while state turnout rates were moderately correlated with Clinton’s vote share, changes in state turnout rates from 2012 to 2016 did not have a substantial impact on Clinton’s performance.     

Court turns a DEF ear to opponent's entreaties

Where the previous owner of a company gives a third party theauthority to register trade marks abroad in its own name, thatauthority remains an effective basis upon which to apply fora Community trade mark even where events subsequent to the givingof the authority would appear to be of contrary effect.     

Genuine Auto Parts v EPA: How to Challenge Agency Findings of Fact

Abstract

This article discusses how to challenge decisions of fact made by administrative agencies, based on a recent federal appellate decision in which a decision by the Environmental Protection Agency was overturned. In Genuine Auto Parts v EPA, the court concluded that the agency’s failure to address an important element of the matter made its decision “arbitrary and capricious” and “not supported by substantial evidence.” The article discusses the relationship between “arbitrary and capricious” and “not supported by substantial evidence” as independent grounds for overturning an agency decision and concludes that both require a challenge to the decision-making process, not a challenge to the substance of the agency decision and the both require a rational process so that an agency failure to articulate a reason for its decision can be grounds for reversal.     

Predictors of re-offending in German substance-abusers in legal detention: a prospective population-based cohort study

This study aimed to evaluate whether the elapsed time after release to first re-offense is longer for those who complete coerced forensic addiction treatment than for those who fail to complete the treatment. It is also aimed to identify predictors of re-offending for both those who complete such treatments as compared with those who do not. Two hundred and sixty-one patients discharged from five German forensic addiction clinics were investigated on 65 anamnestic, socio-demographic, and therapeutic process variables. One hundred and fifty-one patients were prematurely discharged and returned to prison (group A; time at risk [TAR] = 58.7 months), 110 finished treatment successfully (group B; TAR = 44.2 months). Federal Criminal Register data were used for follow-up. Univariate survival analyses and multivariate stepwise Cox-regression models were computed. Twelve predictors in group A revealed a four-factor model: age at admission to treatment, duration of concurrent prison sentence, number of entries in the criminal register, and attendance at prior substitution programs. The model for group B covered five out of eight predictors: regular working activities before first diagnosis of mental illness, type of main offense, (secondary) traffic offenses, outpatient rehabilitation treatments, and escapes during treatment. Successful completers of forensic addiction treatment are slower to re-offend than non-completers.