Issue Competence and its Influence on Voting Behavior in the Swiss 2015 Elections

The Liberal Radical party and – even more so – the Swiss People's party are the two winners of the Swiss 2015 election. In this contribution, we evaluate whether and to what extent issue ownership voting may help to account for the electoral success of these two parties. To that end, we distinguish the two dimensions – the associative and the competence dimension – of the concept and we rely on data from the on‐line, four‐wave panel survey carried out in the context of the Swiss election studies. Our results highlight the stability of issue ownership perceptions during the course of the campaign on the aggregate level, but they also show the substantial importance of issue ownership voting, on the individual level. More specifically, in line with earlier studies we find that competence issue ownership has a direct impact on the vote choice, whereas the impact of associative issue ownership is far more limited. For both parties under study, being seen as the most competent party on two important issues (migration and the economy) significantly contributes to the explanation of the vote choice.     

Sponsorship Effects in Online Surveys

Political Behavior - Many academic surveys administered online include a banner along the top of the survey displaying the name or logo of the researcher’s university. These banners may...     

Campaigning in a Direct Democracy: Three Case Studies

This research note focuses on Switzerland's relationship with the EU, and the role direct democracy plays in this relationship. Specifically, the research question asked is whether behaviour on the part of the campaigners can be understood through the lens of Riker's so‐called dominance principle: “when one side successfully wins the argument on an issue, the other side ceases to discuss it” (Riker 1993: 81). One corollary of the dominance principle is that there will tend to be a concentration on a smaller and smaller number of arguments over the course of a campaign, because campaigners are induced to focus on a small subset of issues, their “winning issues”. On the basis of a data set consisting of campaign advertisements appearing in Swiss newspapers in the four‐week periods before the EU‐related 1992, 2000 and 2001 votes, the analysis actually shows little evidence of any concentration of arguments. The research note concludes by considering some implication of this for Swiss direct democracy.     

Electoral balancing,divided government and ‘midterm’ loss in German elections

This paper takes a fresh look at the midterm loss in German elections and argues that government type is a crucial determinant of midterm loss. Using panel regressions on a newly compiled data set covering all state elections during the period 1949–2004, we find that systematic midterm losses occur only when both chambers of the federal legislature (Bundestag and Bundesrat) are controlled by one party or a party coalition. Prior research has failed to discover this important regularity. These findings lend strong support to electoral balancing models while calling into doubt more traditional explanations of midterm loss.     

The effect of being conflict non-avoidant: linking conflict framing and political participation

Abstract

The news media’s ability to mobilise citizens to participate politically by emphasising elite conflict in politics is not well understood. This article argues that citizens may gain knowledge when exposed to conflict news framing. It further theorises that whether they translate their knowledge into political participation is conditioned by their orientation towards conflict. Individuals who avoid conflict participate less frequently than individuals who do not. The proposed moderated mediation process was tested using a content analysis of news media coverage and a three-wave panel survey (n?=?2,061). Results show that the effect of exposure to conflict news framing on (changes in) political participation is positively mediated by knowledge. This mediation effect is moderated by conflict avoidance, where the effect is more positive among conflict non-avoiders than conflict avoiders. This study shows that understanding the news media’s mobilising effect on political participation requires attention to both news content and individual motivational factors.     

The Impact of Trade Credit on Customer Switching Behaviour: Evidence from the Tanzanian Rice Market

We use primary survey data to analyse the relationship between trade credit and customer switching in the context of trade transactions between wholesalers and retailers in the Tanzanian rice market. Results reveal a negative relation of trade credit and customer switching, that is, trade credit acts as a switching barrier; retailers are reluctant to move to another supplier if they depend on trade credit as a source of external finance. This interpretation fits with the underdeveloped financial markets in Tanzania, in which access to external finance is poor among rice retailers.     

Means for identifying unknown cadavers. A report of experiences from forensic practice]

98 cases of unidentified corpses found in the region of Frankfurt/M. during the period 1981-1986 were investigated. The different methods used in the investigation processes were compared. The most important results: 1. The condition of the body had very little influence on the time required for identification. 2. The estimated ages tended for ages up to 50 years to be too low and for ages of 50 years and over too high. 3. Visual recognition of the deceased and comparison of finger prints proved to be the most successful methods and provided the best results. 4. In more than half of the cases distinguishing bodily features, clothing and jewelry were helpful in the identification procedure; in 9% of the cases they alone formed the basis of identification. 5. Abductions were carried out in only 30% of the cases, 43% of which led to conclusive results.     

The Myth of 'Rebalancing' Retaliation in WTO Dispute Settlement Practice

It is generally assumed that trade retaliation under the WTOperforms some kind of ‘rebalancing’ by allowingthe injured Member to suspend ‘concessions and obligations’vis-à-vis the violating Member of a level equivalentto the level of ‘nullification and impairment’ sufferedby the injured Member. This article argues that this perceptionis misguided. The article first questions if a sensible comparatorexists with which equivalence for purposes of ‘rebalancing’could be evaluated. It then argues that WTO arbitration decisionsdo not even succeed in their limited goal of providing for retaliationthat will affect trade in the same amount as the WTO-inconsistentmeasure at issue. One reason is the use of an asymmetric andunderspecified trade effects comparator. The other reason isvery significant miscalculation of the trade effects of theviolation, as shown by detailed legal-economic analysis of allrelevant arbitration decisions. The decisions concerning countermeasuresagainst prohibited export subsidies do not make any attemptat ‘rebalancing’ in the first place. The articleconsiders political explanations of arbitration decisions. Itconcludes with some suggestions for improvement.     

The distal humerus--a blind test of Rogers' sexing technique using a documented skeletal collection

Continuous monitoring of existing methods of skeletal diagnosis allows improving the reliability of personal identification in forensic and archaeological contexts. This study reports on a blind test re-evaluating the sexing technique proposed by Rogers (8) involving the distal humerus. A total of 351 humeri (184 male, 167 female specimens) from the documented skeletal assemblage of St. Bride's, London, was analyzed for the following traits: trochlear constriction, trochlear symmetry, olecranon fossa shape, and angle of the medial epicondyle. Individual traits showed substantial sex-discriminatory capacity, with "olecranon fossa shape" being most consistently accurate (84.6%) in predicting sex. The combination of all four traits provided an overall accuracy of 79.1%, including those individuals assessed as "probable" male and female. This renders the technique useful for forensic applications. The distal humerus can be recommended for sex assessment in addition to more established markers, especially since this part of the skeleton is frequently well preserved.