“三元悖论”理论研究述评

亚洲金融危机后,“三元悖论”命题被明确提出,受到人们的广泛关注,成为国际经济学中一个著名的有争议的论断。在近些年针对汇率制度选择展开的论争中,该原则也屡屡成为论战的武器或对象。对“三元悖论”原则的理论发展历程进行梳理,可以发现该理论不仅反映了开放经济下经济体系内部所蕴含的矛盾,即开放经济下宏观调控当局面临多重相互交织的目标时必须有所取舍,同时也为资本流动情况下,货币政策和汇率政策的协调提供了一个一目了然且易于操作的分析框架。     

冲突与整合：和谐社会的政治学解读

当代中国政治冲突的广泛存在,要求我们重新认识政治冲突与整合理论的当代价值。通过强化主流价值整合、健全政治整合主体、优化利益整合、探索新的整合方式、维持政治整合的弹性,以消弭冲突,是从政治学意义上探索建构和谐社会路径的重要思路。     

Budgeting for Fiscal Stability over the Business Cycle: A Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and the Multiyear Perspective on Budgeting

This essay is a theoretical exploration of a new budgetary system to cope with fiscal uncertainty and instability. ¹ It examines policies requiring positive year-end balances and infers that annual budget cycles lead to a mismatch between the budget cycle and the continuity of public service provision. The author considers a multiyear perspective on budgeting as a potential solution, with countercyclical fiscal reserves to help ensure stability during fluctuating economic conditions. By adopting budget stabilization funds and keeping sufficient reserves, states can better maintain trend-level public services during recessions. Panel data analysis provides empirical evidence that such funds helped stabilize state general expenditures during downturns. The adoption of countercyclical fiscal policy and budget stabilization funds is a step toward a longer-term perspective on budgeting, thus promoting fiscal stability over the economic cycle.     

关于工会成为职工"教育之家"的思考

20世纪80年代的建设职工之家活动风靡一时,工会成为职工“教育之家”是对职工之家的深化和升华,启动职工素质工程,全面提高职工素质,是世界及中国社会发展的需要,也是工会履行职能的一项要务,工会有其自身的优势条件和经验,能够把工会办成职工的“教育之家”。     

THE STATE SOCIALIST WELFARE SYSTEM and the POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC HOUSING REFORM IN URBAN CHINA

This aticle analyses China's housing reform against the background that a new housing policy has been implemented since 1988. The crucial point of the 1998 housing policy package is to stop the allocation system of state‐subsidized public housing. By changing this rule of the game, a major institutional obstacle to housing reform will be removed, and some unfeasible policy measures become feasible within the new institutional context.     

政府部门开展电子政务需求设计的一般方法

从政府工作角度论述了政府部门开展电子政务需求设计的主要目的和作用 ,探讨了电子政务需求设计的主要概念和基本过程 ,并以北京市数字市政管理服务系统的需求调研为例对其进行了说明     

Age estimation by occlusal tooth wear

The purpose of the present investigation was to test the accuracy of a new scoring system in recording tooth wear for age estimation. The material consisted of dental stone casts of 383 volunteers who had sound premolars and molars with normal occlusion. The degree of occlusal wear for all premolar and molar teeth was scored with the new system. The high intra- and inter-examiner concordances showed that the new score system was very reliable. The degree of tooth wear showed a significant positive correlation with age in each and every examined tooth of both males and females. Tooth wear scores of males were higher than those of females. Calculating tables for age estimation were designed and the accuracy of age estimation was obtained with the General Linear Models procedures. Our system could provide estimation of an individual's age within +/-3 years in 42.4% of males and 49.4% of females, within +/-5 years in 61.8% of males and 63.3% of females. When the subjects were divided into two age groups and data were re-treated, the accuracy of age estimation was increased. Collectively, it was shown that our new system for scoring tooth wear is a reliable and accurate method for age estimation.     

The comparison of toluene determination between headspace-solid phase microextraction and headspace methods in glue-sniffer's blood and urine samples

An accurate and simple method was developed to determine the level of toluene in urine and blood quantitatively by using the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) with headspace--solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) technique. An assembly of SPME with a replaceable extraction fiber, coated with 100 microm polydimethylsiloxane, was used. The detection limit of toluene in blood and urine with HS-SPME technique was 10 times higher than that with headspace (HS) technique. To compare the HS-SPME with HS technique for the determination of toluene in biological fluids, blood and urine samples from glue sniffers were analyzed by both methods. The level of toluene by the two techniques was highly correlated: the correlation coefficient (r2) between the two sets of values were 0.98 and 0.96 in urine and blood, respectively.     

A sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for ABO blood typing of semen by using anti-p 84 monoclonal antibody as a marker of blood group substance in semen

A blood group substance (BGS), a protein with ABH antigenic activity, was isolated from human seminal plasma and designated as p 84 (Sato, 1995). We have developed a method for determining the ABO blood type of semen by performing a sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in which p 84 is captured with an anti-p 84 monoclonal antibody, and evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of this method. Although BGS activity was detected in semen sensitively by this method, it was not detected in saliva, urine, breast milk, blood or vaginal secretions. Since the concentration of p 84 in semen was independent of the secretion status, the status can be determined as non-secretor when p 84 but not BGS activity was detected. To determine the stability of BGS activity on p 84, dried stains of semen on filter paper were kept at 4, 26, and 37 degrees C for 8 months, 2 years and 1 month, respectively, and their BGS activities were examined. After 8 months at 4 degrees C, over 60% of the original BGS activity was recovered from the stain. The activity could be detected even from a square as small as 0.25 by 0.25 cm. After 1 month at 37 degrees C and 2 years at 26 degrees C, 31 and 20% of the BGS activity, respectively, still remained. It could be detected from the pieces of 1.0 by 1.0 cm and 0.5 by 0.5 cm squares, kept for 1 month at 37 degrees C and 2 years at 26 degrees C, respectively. Finally, semen was mixed with saliva or blood at varying volumetric ratios and used for the sources of dried stains. The BGS activity of p 84 could be detected in the stains until the ratio between semen and saliva or blood reached 1:4. We conclude that this sandwich ELISA offers a more sensitive and specific method for determining the ABO blood type of semen samples obtained from sexual assault victims than existing methods, such as the conventional absorption-elution and classical hemagglutination-inhibition tests.