The impact of at-large elections: vote dilution or choice dilution?

Multi-member, at-large legislative elections result in election outcomes different from outcomes in single-member district elections for two reasons: they cancel out the voting strength of geographically concentrated groups of voters (e.g., party groups, racial groups), and they make it difficult for a voter to vote for an individual candidate, rather than for one of the competing lists of candidates. An electoral setting in Long Island, New York, presents an opportunity to test which of these two aspects of at-large elections—vote dilution or choice dilution—accounts for the usual pattern of one party (or group) winning all the legislative seats at stake.     

Diffusion in Homicide: Exploring a General Method for Detecting Spatial Diffusion Processes

This article proposes a new method for examining dynamic changes in thespatial distribution of a phenomenon. Recently introduced exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques provide social scientists with anew set of tools for distinguishing between random and nonrandom spatialpatterns of events (Anselin, 1998). Existing ESDA measures, however, arestatic and do not permit comparisons of distributions of events in the samespace but across different time periods. One ESDA method—the Moranscatterplot—has special heuristic value because it visually displayslocal spatial relationships between each spatial unit and its neighbors. Weextend this static cross-sectional view of the spatial distribution ofevents to consider dynamic features of changes over time in spatialdependencies. The method distinguishes between contagious diffusion betweenadjoining units and hierarchical diffusion that spreads broadly throughcommonly shared influences. We apply the method to homicide data, lookingfor evidence of spatial diffusion of youth-gang homicides acrossneighborhoods in a city. Contagious diffusion between neighboring censustracts is evident only during the year of peak growth in total homicides,when high local rates of youth-gang homicides are followed by significantincreases in neighboring youth- nongang rates. This pattern is consistentwith a spread of homicides from gang youth to nongang youth. Otherwise, theincreases in both youth-gang and youth- nongang homicides generally occursimultaneously in nonneighboring tracts.     

Linking program implementation and effectiveness: Lessons from a pooled sample of welfare‐to‐work experiments

This paper addresses the question: How does implementation influence the effectiveness of mandatory welfare‐to‐work programs? Data from three large‐scale, multi‐site random assignment experiments were pooled; quantitative measures of program implementation were constructed; and multilevel statistical modeling was used to examine the relationship between program implementation and effects on short‐term client earnings. Individual‐level data were analyzed for 69,399 sample members and group‐level implementation data were analyzed for 59 local programs. Findings indicate that, other things being equal, earnings effects are increased by: an emphasis on quick client employment, an emphasis on personalized client attention, staff caseloads that do not get too large, and limited use of basic education. Findings also show that mandatory welfare‐to‐work programs can be effective for many types of people, and that focusing on clients who are especially job‐ready (or not) does not have a consistent influence on a program's effectiveness. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

The Ombudsman: What's in a Name?

The role of the ombudsman is perhaps the least well understood inthe field of alternative dispute resolution (ADR). This essay introducesreaders to the differing conceptions of the role; the sometimes fractiousdivide that has existed in the past between classical andorganizational ombudsmen; and a collection of essays by four well-known practitioners that shed lighton what it is ombudsmen do; the kinds of disputes they deal with and howthey operate; how they view their role (and how others view it); and boththe possibilities and limitations of the ombuds function.     

Federal tax reform and the financing of state and local governments

Although the Reagan Administration tax reform proposals would reduce federal income tax liabilities for most taxpayers, federal tax reform would also create strong pressures on state and local governments to cut taxes and public services. These pressures would arise primarily because itemizers would no longer be able to deduct state and local taxes in determining their federal income tax liabilities. In New York City and Boston, it is likely that the Administration's tax reform would induce cuts in spending that range from 2.5 to 7.5 percent. While the elimination of state and local tax deductibility may promote allocative efficiency in the provision of local public goods, the cost would be a decline in the degree of redistribution through the state and local public sector, and a reduction in local public services for the poor.