Introduction to the issue in honor of Keith T. Poole

William Baumol’s model predicts a steady increase in relative public sector prices (or costs) because of the combination of slow productivity growth and wage growth similar to sectors wherein productivity is growing more quickly. In this paper, we extend the Baumol model with political variables and analyze price growth in defense and public administration using Norwegian data. We find strong support for the mechanism of the Baumol model since manufacturing productivity is the most important determinant of relative public-sector prices. Greater political fragmentation has also contributed to the price growth, but its quantitative effect is smaller than that of manufacturing productivity. An analysis of a labor-intensive private service (restaurants and cafes) supports the broader relevance of the Baumol mechanism and the validity of the estimated effect of political fragmentation on the two sectors considered herein.     

Comparing Central City Finances Using Fiscally Standardized Cities

Abstract

Because fiscal institutions and arrangements differ widely across US cities, it has until now been very difficult to conduct comparative analysis of spending, revenues, and debt in US cities. This paper describes a new city fiscal dataset, called fiscally standardized cities (FiSCs), that directly addresses the varying roles of municipal governments, counties, school districts, and special districts in the financing of central cities. By taking systematic account of fiscal data for all the major units of government in large cities over a long time period (1977–2012), the FiSC data permit investigation of a wide range of important comparative policy issues for cities. The article describes the methodology used to construct FiSCs, and gives a number of examples to illustrate the potential uses of the FiSC data. For example, it shows how spending comparisons between cities can be fundamentally misleading unless account is taken of the varying roles of overlapping governmental units. It also demonstrates how the FiSC data can be used to benchmark fiscal data for one city against comparable cities.     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Police officers’ judgements of veracity,tenseness, cognitive load and attempted behavioural control in real-life police interviews

Abstract

The present experiment examined the apparently incongruent findings that police officers (i) believe that suspects show nervous behaviour when they lie but (ii) seem able to detect deceit in suspects who do not show nervous behaviours. It was hypothesized that police officers’ judgements about whether a suspect is lying would not be correlated with their judgements regarding whether the suspect is tense, but, instead, would be correlated with their judgements regarding whether suspects are having to think hard or attempting to control their behaviour.

Each of 84 police officers saw seven truths and seven lies told by suspects during their police interviews. Participants in Condition 1 were asked to indicate after each clip whether the suspect was lying, whereas participants in Condition 2 were asked to note after each clip to what extent the suspect appeared to be tense, having to think hard or attempting to control their behaviour. Condition 3 was a combination of Conditions 1 and 2 and participants were asked all the above questions. The findings support the hypotheses and therefore negate the assumption that police officers primarily look for cues of nervousness when they attempt to detect deceit.     

‘I'm a photographer,not a terrorist’: the use of photography to detect deception

When planning large-scale incidents or bombing campaigns, terrorists often conduct reconnaissance research to identify key targets. This may include taking photographs of potential target locations. Identifying an effective real-time method to distinguish between genuine photographers and those with more sinister intent may be beneficial for law enforcement and security agencies. Participants took photographs in a public place with a genuine intent (truth tellers) or sinister intent (liars). After taking these photographs, the participants were approached by an undercover interviewer (a mime artist) who asked them whether he could see the photographs. Later, the participants discussed their photographs in a formal interview. First, liars were less cooperative in their interaction with the undercover interviewer than truth tellers. Second, in the formal interview, liars mentioned some security features that appeared in the photographs more than truth tellers. The findings suggest that ‘using photographs to detect deception’ is a subject that could prove important to explore to benefit forensic and counter-terrorist practice.     

Government‐operated public broadcast stations and candidates' access to political debates

Under the Communications Act's equal opportunity requirement and FCC interpretations of that provision, licensees can choose which political candidates to include in a broadcast debate. However, a 1994 decision by a federal appellate court has clouded the ability of public broadcast stations licensed to government entities to exclude particular candidates. According to the court, such stations, as a form of state action, generate a limited First Amendment right on the part of candidates to demand inclusion in a broadcast debate. This article examines the unique constitutional questions raised by the court's decision. An assessment of the competing rights and interests of candidates, stations licensed to government entities and the public indicates that such stations should provide access to political debates.     

Reconviction following a cognitive skills intervention: An alternative quasi‐experimental methodology

Purpose. Enhanced Thinking Skills (ETS) has been the most widely delivered cognitive skills programme in the prisons of England and Wales. Four quasi‐experimental outcome studies have produced mixed results, a qualitative survey of offenders’ and facilitators’ experience on the programme proved useful in programme refinement, and a study using random allocation provided evidence that ETS impacts significantly and positively on short‐term attitudinal change. This study aims to make a further contribution, using another methodology, to the accumulation of evidence. Methods. This was a real‐world evaluation, comparing the reconviction outcomes of the population of 17,047 ETS participants in custody from 2000 to 2005 with a national cohort of 19,792 prisoners released over the same period. Results. Overall, prisoners who had attended ETS were found to reoffend at a rate 6.4 percentage points less than the cohort (rising to 7.5 percentage points for programme completers) and 9.5 percentage points less than the predicted rate. In all but the very highest risk group and in every sentence length band, the reoffending outcomes for ETS participants were significantly better than for prisoners in the cohort. Conclusions. It is argued that this non‐experimental methodology makes a contribution to the ‘What Works’ evidence.     

Two heads are better than one? How to effectively use two interviewers to elicit cues to deception

Background. We examined the effect of a second interviewer's demeanour on cues to deception. We predicted that a supportive demeanour would be the most beneficial for eliciting verbal cues to deceit, as it would encourage truth tellers, but not liars, to say more. In addition, we examined the extent to which interviewees deliberately made eye contact with the interviewers. Liars take their credibility less for granted than truth tellers, and therefore have a greater drive to be convincing. Liars are thus more likely to monitor the interviewer to determine if the interviewer appears to believe them. Method. Participants appeared before two interviewers: the first asked all the questions and the second remained silent. The second interviewer exhibited either a supportive, neutral, or a suspicious demeanour. Results. Truth tellers provided significantly more detail than liars, but only in the supportive second interviewer condition. The effect of a second interviewer's demeanour on detail was perhaps remarkable given that the interviewees hardly looked at the second interviewer (less than 10% of the time). Liars displayed more deliberate eye contact (with the first interviewer) than truth tellers did. Conclusions. A supportive second interviewer has a positive effect on interviewing. We discuss this finding in the wider contexts of investigative interviewing and interviewing to detect deception.     

Elected Mayors: Leading Locally?

The directly elected executive mayor was introduced to England a decade ago. Drawing inspiration from European and American experience, the elected mayor appealed to both New Labour and Conservative commentators in offering a solution to perceived problems of local leadership. There was a shared view that governance of local areas was failing and that elected mayors were the answer. The first local referendums were held in 2001. Most have continued to reject the idea of the elected mayor. During 2012, the coalition government initiated 10 further mayoral referendums in England’s largest cities but only one, Bristol, opted for an elected mayor. Overall, there is no evidence of widespread public support, yet the prospect of more mayors – with enhanced powers – remains firmly on the policy agenda.

Drawing from a decade of research, this paper considers reasons for the persistence of the mayoral experiment, the importance of local factors in the few areas where mayors hold office and the link to current policy debates. Using the authors’ analytical leadership grid, this paper links the governmental, governance and allegiance roles of mayors to the problematic nature of local leadership. It then draws tentative conclusions about the strange case of the elected mayor in England.