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251.
Some recent articles have proposed that the confidence interval for the predicted outcome of a single case can be used to
describe the predictive accuracy of risk assessments (Hart et al. Br J Psychiat 190:60–65, 2007b; Cooke and Michie, Law Hum Behav 2009). Given that the confidence intervals for an individual prediction are very large, Cooke and colleagues have questioned the
wisdom of applying recidivism rates estimated from group data to single cases. In this article, we argue that the confidence
intervals for the recidivism outcome predicted for a single case will range between zero to one (i.e., be uninformative) when
the outcome is dichotomous and the predicted probability is between .05 and .95. This is true by definition and limits the
utility of using individual confidence intervals to measure predictive accuracy. Consequently, other quality indicators (many
of which are non-quantitative) are needed to determine the accuracy and error of risk evaluations. 相似文献
252.
An offender's punishment can be reduced when a court decides that his mental disorder reduces his responsibility for what he did. Courts have sought to establish whether a mentally disordered offender's responsibility is reduced by asking whether his disorder caused the crime. Acceptance of this “causation by mental disorder” criterion has fluctuated, however. This may be because causal explanations are not the types of explanations we are accustomed to offering for the kinds of acts that bring defendants, and psychiatric witnesses, to court. More often, we offer what philosophers have called “possibility” explanations for these acts. The application of psychiatry to possibility explanations has not been widely explored. It offers the potential for the improved use of psychiatric evidence in criminal proceedings. 相似文献
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Policymakers and other interested stakeholders currently are seeking information about the comparative effectiveness of different regulatory approaches to minimising gambling-related harm. This study responds to this research gap by exploring associations between gambling policies and disordered gambling prevalence rates. We gathered information about gambling policies for thirty European jurisdictions and past-year prevalence rates for disordered gambling for twelve of these jurisdictions. We present policy trends and prevalence rates and then describe the level of association between policy and prevalence. We observe one statistically significant association between policy and prevalence: rates of sub-clinical (i.e., Level 2) disordered gambling were higher within environments that mandated less strict regulation of advertising for online gambling. Finally, we discuss the implications of our research in the context of the current process regarding the pan-European regulation of gambling. Our findings do not offer evidence for certain assumptions made in the past by the European judiciary. 相似文献
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Howard Williams 《政治学》1994,14(3):135-141
International relations and political theory are generally seen as two distinct disciplines with their different methodologies and clusters of problems. This division of labour has in some respects proved useful but may now be too extreme. Political theory and international relations have a common subject matter in political action and state behaviour. The advantages for political theory and international relations in crossing the dividing lines between the disciplines are explored. A case is made for a political theory which is focussed on international relations and an international relations which exploits the approaches and methods of political theory. 相似文献
258.
Meda Chesney-Lind Anna Rockhill Nancy Marker Howard Reyes 《Crime, Law and Social Change》1994,21(3):201-228
This study explores the meaning of police estimates of gang membership, by reviewing the characteristics of youth labeled as gang members in one western state, Hawaii, during 1991. Arrest patterns of these youth do not support the notion that they constitute a seriously violent subset of criminals. Indeed, nearly a third had not been arrested in the previous three years; notable too is the absence of a large number of weapon or drug arrests. These findings are amplified by data from a comparison of youth who were not labeled as gang members; these indicate that youth (in the City and County of Honolulu) who are delinquent differ little from those youth suspected of gang membership in terms of the frequency or severity of their offenses. Finally, the groups most commonly labeled by police as gang members are Filipino and Samoan males, but self-report data on gang membership indicate a somewhat different ethnic composition. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, November 1992, New Orleans, Louisiana 相似文献
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