Lifetime distributional effects of Social Security retirement benefits

This article presents three measures of the distribution of actual and projected net benefits (benefits minus payroll taxes) from Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) for people born between 1931 and 1960. The results are based on simulations with the Social Security Administration's Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT), which projects retirement income through 2020. The base sample for MINT is the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation panels for 1990 to 1993, matched with Social Security administrative records. The study population is grouped into 5-year birth cohorts and then ranked by economic status in three ways. First, the population is divided into five groups on the basis of individual lifetime covered earnings, and their lifetime present values of OASI benefits received and payroll taxes paid are calculated. By this measure, OASI provides much higher benefits to the lowest quintile of earners than to other groups, but it becomes less redistributive toward lower earners in more recent birth cohorts. Second, people are ranked by shared lifetime covered earnings, and the values of shared benefits received and payroll taxes paid are computed. Individuals are assumed to split covered earnings, benefits, and payroll taxes with their spouses in the years they are married. By the shared covered earnings measure, OASI is still much more favorable to persons in the lower income quintiles, although to a lesser degree than when people are ranked by individual covered earnings. OASI becomes more progressive among recent cohorts, even as net lifetime benefits decline for the entire population. Finally, individuals are ranked on the basis of their shared permanent income from age 62, when they become eligible for early retirement benefits, until death. Their annual Social Security benefits are compared with the benefits they would have received if they had saved their payroll taxes in individual accounts and used the proceeds to buy either of two annuities that provide level payments from age 62 until death: a unisex annuity that is based on the average life expectancy of the birth cohort or an age-adjusted annuity that is based on the worker's own life expectancy. On the permanent income measure, OASI is generally more favorable to people in higher income quintiles. Moreover, it is particularly unfavorable to those in the lowest quintile. Because people in the lowest quintile have a shorter life expectancy, they receive OASI benefits for a shorter period. This group would receive greater benefits in retirement if they invested their payroll taxes in the age-adjusted annuity. OASI is more favorable to them than the unisex annuity, however, OASI is becoming more progressive in that the net benefits it provides drop more rapidly among higher income quintiles than lower ones. This article also examines how OASI affects individuals by educational attainment, race, and sex. On both the lifetime covered earnings and the permanent income measures, OASI is more favorable to workers with less education and more favorable to women. The results by race and ethnicity are mixed. When people are ranked by the present value of their shared lifetime covered earnings, OASI appears more favorable to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than to non-Hispanic whites. When people are ranked by shared permanent income in retirement, however, OASI produces negative returns for both non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in the most recent birth cohorts, with non-Hispanic blacks faring relatively worse. The changes across cohorts occur partly because of changes in tax rates and benefits, but more importantly because of changing demographics and earnings patterns of the workforce. Of particular importance is the increasing share of beneficiaries who receive worker benefits instead of auxiliary benefits as wives or widows. OASI benefits are based on the lifetime covered earnings of current or former married couples, as well as on earned retirement benefits of individuals. The reduced importance of auxiliary benefits (due to the higher lifetime covered earnings of women) and the increased proportion of divorced retirees make OASI more progressive--even as net benefits decline--for current and future cohorts than for cohorts who retired in the 1990s. Analysis of these findings suggests that simulations of policy changes in Social Security must take into account the decreasing importance of auxiliary benefits across birth cohorts and the complex changes in individuals' marital histories.     

Self-attitudes and deviant behavior: The case of the charismatic religious movement

Hypotheses are tested concerning the relationship between level of and changes in self-attitudes on the one hand and the adoption of membership in the charismatic religious movement on the other hand. The hypotheses are derived from a general theory of deviant behavior. Subjects (generally aged 13–25) were 65 members of a local charismatic religious group and a comparison group of 47 members of three, more traditional urban Protestant churches. Self-attitudes were measured by a self-derogation scale responded to with reference to two points in time: the present and 6 months to 1 year prior to the test administration. The three hypotheses were supported. (1) The charismatic subjects, relative to the comparison subjects, displayed significantly higher levels of self-derogation at the time of adopting membership in the charismatic group. (2) Individuals who adopted membership in the charismatic cults, relative to the comparison group, displayed a significantly greater tendency to decrease the level of self-derogation between the earlier point in time and the point in time when the subjects were interviewed. (3) Significantly greater decrease in self-derogation on the part of the charismatic cult subjects resulted in comparable levels of selfderogation for the charismatic and comparison groups at the time of the interview.Received M.D. from the University of Ottawa in 1960, did his fellowship in psychiatry in Mayo Clinic, 1968–1970, and is a fellow of the American Board of Neurology and Psychiatry (1973). Major interest is religion and psychiatry.Received Ph.D. in sociology from New York University in 1958. Current research interests are social psychiatry and, more specifically, the reciprocal relationship berween self-attitudes and the adoption of deviant response patterns.     

Increase in self-rejection and continuing/discontinued deviant response

It was hypothesized that adoption of deviant response patterns regardless of subsequent continuation of the act would be associated with an antecedent increase in negative self-attitudes. Subjects were seventh-grade students who responded to a questionnaire three times (T ₁,T ₂,T ₃) at annual intervals (N=3,148). Self-attitudes were measured by a seven-item self-derogation scale. Change in self-derogation was determined by expressing the posttest score as a deviation from the posttest-on-pretest regression line. Deviant responses were defined in terms of self-reports of each of 22 highly independent responses. In all cases, as hypothesized, for each of the 22 deviant responses both (1) subjects who adopted and continued the act and (2) subjects who adopted and discontinued the act manifested greater increases in self-derogation than subjects who did not adopt the deviant act. The differences, all of which were in the hypothesized direction, were significant in 34 of the 44 comparisons. The results were interpreted as supporting the position that the adoption of any of a broad range of manifestly dissimilar deviant responses is preceded by the genesis of negative selfattitudes.Received his Ph. D. in sociology from New York University in 1958. Current research interests are social psychiatry and, more specifically, the reciprocal relationship between self-attitudes and the adoption of deviant response patterns.     

Deviant behavior and self-enhancement in adolescence

The hypothesis that “among initially high self-derogation subjects deviant response patterns (alcohol and drug abuse, delinquent patterns, etc.) are related to subsequent decreases in self-derogation” was tested with data from a longitudinal survey study of adolescents. Among higher and lower socioeconomic status (SES) males initially high self-derogation subjects who adopted (relative to those who did not adopt) any of several deviant patterns manifested significantly greater subsequent base-free decreases in self-derogation. For higher SES females only narcotics use (and among lower SES females no deviant pattern) was significantly related to subsequent decrease in self-derogation. Together with collateral data, these results indicated that where the deviant patterns were compatible with valued social roles and the subjects were able to defend against negative responses by others (but not under mutually exclusive conditions), deviant patterns functioned to reduce self-rejecting feelings among initially highly self-derogating subjects.     

The great lakes crisis: An American view

An examination of Taiwan's development from an agrarian economy only 50 years ago to a leading high‐tech economy.