Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?

The paper studies the relationship between two institutional innovations in monetary policy of the past few decades: central bank independence (CBI) and explicit inflation targeting (EIT). The aim is to make inferences about the optimal institutional design of monetary policy, and the right sequencing of policy reform. Our reduced-form model unifies several approaches in the literature, and offers three novel institutional findings (that we square with existing empirical evidence). First, instrument-CBI is a complement to EIT, whereas goal-CBI acts as a strategic substitute for EIT in ensuring low inflation and policy credibility. Second, out of these two ‘commitment technologies,’ EIT is shown to be socially superior to goal-CBI. Third and controversially, countries that first implement goal-CBI are then less likely to adopt the desirable EIT regime. This is because independent central bankers may have less need to do so (their independence partly substitutes for EIT), as well as less willingness to do so (due to a higher degree of accountability associated with a transparently legislated target). Our analysis therefore implies that developing and emerging market countries should go down the New Zealand route—legislate EIT together with instrument-CBI, but stay clear of goal-CBI. Unfortunately, many transition countries have followed the opposite Fed/Bundesbank route, which we show may have adverse welfare consequences through several channels.     

Geophysics and the search of freshwater bodies: A review

Geophysics may assist scent dogs and divers in the search of water bodies for human and animal remains, contraband, weapons and explosives by surveying large areas rapidly and identifying targets or environmental hazards. The most commonly applied methods are described and evaluated for forensic searches. Seismic reflection or refraction and CHIRPS are useful for deep, open water bodies and identifying large targets, yet limited in streams and ponds. The use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) on water (WPR) is of limited use in deep waters (over 20 m) but is advantageous in the search for non-metallic targets in small ditches and ponds. Large metal or metal-bearing targets can be successfully imaged in deep waters by using towfish magnetometers: in shallow waters such a towfish cannot be used, so a non-metalliferous boat can carry a terrestrial magnetometer. Each device has its uses, depending on the target and location: unknown target make-up (e.g. a homicide victim with or without a metal object) may be best located using a range of methods (the multi-proxy approach), depending on water depth. Geophysics may not definitively find the target, but can provide areas for elimination and detailed search by dogs and divers, saving time and effort.     

Neighborhoods,Individuals, and Instrumental Crime in Russia and Ukraine: A Multilevel Test of Merton’s Anomie Theory

Objectives

Empirically assess Baumer’s (Theor Criminol 11(1):63–93, 2007) efforts to unify Merton’s anomie/strain theory within a multilevel framework that anticipates instrumental crime among individuals who are both strongly committed to monetary success goals and weakly committed to the normative means for pursuing these goals, particularly if they possess certain other personal attributes or are embedded within anomic socio-cultural contexts.

Methods

Multilevel overdispersed Poisson regression models are estimated using survey data from 1431 adult residents of 41 neighborhoods in Lviv, Ukraine, and Nizhni Novgorod, Russia.

Results

Consistent with expectations, financial dissatisfaction among individuals appears to exacerbate the effect of the goals-means interaction on instrumental crime. However, no evidence was observed of moderation involving perceived risk of punishment, commitment to non-monetary success goals, and blocked legitimate opportunities. Although neighborhood anomie exerted a statistically significant main effect on instrumental crime, theorized cross-level interactions involving strong cultural emphasis on monetary success goals, weak cultural emphasis on normative means, and limited consensus regarding the normative means by which to pursue monetary success goals did not materialize.

Conclusions

Findings cast doubt on the cross-cultural generality of Baumer’s multilevel conceptualization of Merton’s strain/anomie theory. However, they confirm financial dissatisfaction as a key predictor of instrumental crime and moderator of unbalanced value commitments among individuals. They also suggest that future efforts to bridge the micro and macro strands of Merton’s theory will need to incorporate alternate theoretical predictors (e.g., personal morality) and consider ways in which an anomic social order contributes to deviant behavior directly rather than merely indirectly through the proportion of the population experiencing a goals-means disjuncture.

     

THE PROLIFERATION OF PORTFOLIOS

Abstract: A comparison of contemporary lists of Cabinet ministers with those of the 1850s or 1900s shows a substantial increase in the number of portfolio titles and the appearance of many new titles. However examination of the record of the designation of new portfolios shows very little by way of pattern. Initially Victoria made the innovations, and overall Victoria and New South Wales account for two-thirds of new titles. But long periods of time have elapsed between the first and final adoption of a new title, and some titles which might have been expected to be attractive were introduced relatively late in the day. Murray Edelman's view that much government activity is directed to providing "symbolic reassurance" is not substantiated, with the possible exception of the 1970s when an unusually rapid and extensive round of portfolio initiation took place. It is suggested that more detailed study of why particular portfolios were brought into use might be rewarding.     

How does private finance affect public health care systems? Marshaling the evidence from OECD nations

The impact of private finance on publicly funded health care systems depends on how the relationship between public and private finance is structured. This essay first reviews the experience in five nations that exemplify different ways of drawing the public/private boundary to address the particular questions raised by each model. This review is then used to interpret aggregate empirical analyses of the dynamic effects between public and private finance in OECD nations over time. Our findings suggest that while increases in the private share of health spending substitute in part for public finance (and vice versa), this is the result of a complex mix of factors having as much to do with cross-sectoral shifts as with deliberate policy decisions within sectors and that these effects are mediated by the different dynamics of distinctive national models. On balance, we argue that a resort to private finance is more likely to harm than to help publicly financed systems, although the effects will vary depending on the form of private finance.