Probability of exclusion in paternity testing: time to reassess

The average exclusion probability is a measure of efficiency in paternity testing; it refers to the a priori ability of a battery of tests to detect paternity inconsistencies. This parameter measures the capacity of the system to detect a false accusation of paternity. Traditionally, this average exclusion probability has been estimated as the probability of excluding a man who is not the father by an inconsistency in at least one of the studied loci. We suggest that this criterion should be corrected, as currently the presumed father is excluded when at least three genetic inconsistencies are found with the child being tested, not just one. This change of criterion has occurred because of the use of microsatellite loci, whose mutation rates are much greater than those of the coding genes used previously in paternity studies. We propose the use of the average probability of exclusion for at least three loci (not only one), as an honest measure of the combined probability of exclusion of several loci, and we propose an algebraic expression to calculate it.     

The Impact on Juror Verdicts of Judicial Instruction to Disregard Inadmissible Evidence: A Meta-Analysis

The effect on juror verdicts of judicial instructions to disregard inadmissible evidence was evaluated using meta-analysis. One hundred seventy-five hypothesis tests from 48 studies with a combined 8,474 participants were examined. Results revealed that inadmissible evidence (IE) has a reliable effect on verdicts consistent with the content of the IE. Judicial instruction to ignore the inadmissible evidence does not effectively eliminate IE impact. However, if judges provide a rationale for a ruling of inadmissibility, juror compliance may be increased. Contested evidence ruled admissible accentuates that information, resulting in a significant impact on verdicts. Suggestions for how the courts may mitigate the impact of inadmissible evidence more effectively are discussed.     

Moral authority and reformation religion: On charisma and the origins of modernity

The research for this paper was made possible in large part by a grant from the Jerusalem Center for Anthropological Studies. I would like to express here my appreciation to S. N. Eisenstadt for his invaluable suggestions and comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Patterns of influence and response in abusing and nonabusing families

Behaviors of influence and response during a conflict negotiation task were examined in eight physically child abusing, substance abusing families in which the father was the primary abuser and eight demographically matched nonabusing families. Abusing fathers displayed more coercive patterns of influencing behavior and more negative patterns of response to other family members, including both mothers and children. Fewer differences were observed between mothers in the abusing and nonabusing families or in the children's behavior; however, mothers in the abusing families criticized their husbands more and abused children exhibited less agreement and more criticism toward their fathers. In support of Patterson's theory, abusing families exhibited relatively more reciprocated sequences of criticism and relatively fewer reciprocated sequences of agreement as compared to nonabusing families. Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding interaction in child abusing families.