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We compare the statistical fit of two developmental explanations of delinquent behavior using longitudinal sibling data. The transmission effects model relates future delinquency to prior delinquency, delayed sibling effects, and unique environment. The common-factor effects model adds to these influences a latent variable representing persistent causes shared by siblings. These two models were fit to longitudinal data on 470 sibling pairs interviewed on three occasions. The common-factor effects model fit the data more closely than the transmission model. Nonmutually exclusive interpretations of the common effects model include (a) personality dispositions and (b) unchanging aspects of the social environment such as concurrent sibling effects and siblings' common friends. 相似文献
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Rensselaer W. Lee III 《Crime, Law and Social Change》1992,17(3):177-233
The demise of communism, Westernization, internal economic reform and the disintegration of the Soviet state create fertile soil for the growth of drug abuse and drug trafficking in (the former) USSR. Rates of drug abuse have soared since the mid-1980s, especially in the European parts of the (former) Union; also, organized interregional drug mafias have emerged to serve this rapidly expanding market. The (former) USSR does not now participate significantly in the international narcotics market as a consumer or supplier of illicit substances; however, this pattern of relative self-sufficiency could change dramatically in the 1990s. Convertibility of the ruble could result in a large flow of Western hard drugs such as cocaine, heroin or crack into European Russia. A rapid expansion of trade, travel and economic ties with Western countries will widen the pipeline for the movement of drugs. Finally, Moscow's weakening hold over the (former) Soviet Central Asian republics and Central Asia's generally bleak economic prospects correlate with an apparent massive expansion of drug crop cultivation in that region; if current trends continue, (former) Soviet Central Asia could well become a significant world supplier of hashish and opium products, during the 1990s.Research for this study was completed prior to the transformation of the USSR into the Commonwealth of Independent States.This paper was published as an occasional paper by the Kennan Institute of Advanced Soviet studies and has been updated since then.This paper was prepared for the Department of State as part of its external research program. Views or conclusions contained herein should not be interpreted as representing the official opinion or policy of the Department of State. 相似文献
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This article probes the variation in the breadth of policy engagement among organized interests. The literature, heavily shaped by large‐n US studies of Washington and its lobbying system, suggests many reasons for organized interests to focus policy engagement relatively narrowly. This claim of policy specialization has been long repeated in the British public policy literature. The aim of this article is to empirically test the extent to which expectations of narrowed engagement hold in a UK context. This article uses a new Scottish dataset that tracks actual engagement by any organized interest on executive policy consultations over a 25‐year period. It tracks over 90,000 ‘mobilization events' by over 18,000 organizations in 1,690 distinct consultation issues across the entire Scottish policy system. In analysing these data, we concern ourselves with establishing: (1) the extent of generalized engagement; (2) the type of organized interests that are more or less general in their engagement; and (3) the extent to which a specialized style of policy engagement is on the increase over time. In the process, we develop measures that are appropriate for assessing breadth of engagement using issue‐based policy data. 相似文献
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Since foundational work in the 1950s, researchers have described a variety of dimensions of the occupational culture of police. In an effort to integrate the disparate works, a theoretical model has been constructed depicting the ways in which the stressful features of the police work environment produce coping mechanisms and outcomes. While this model usefully organizes the vast literature on police culture, it has yet to be empirically tested. The current study addresses this void. Path analyses of officer survey data reveal support for several of the propositions set forth by the monolithic model, although the magnitude of the statistical associations was not very powerful and overall model fit was marginal. The implications of these findings are especially relevant given recent concerns over police-community relations and the renewed interest in the police occupational culture expressed by the President’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing. 相似文献
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This study investigates the instrumental goals of business and labor by analyzing legislative ratings issued by a number of organizations. Results indicate that the business community is more diverse in its political goals than is the labor community. The methodology employed is as follows. First, a business/labor categorical scheme is validated by using cluster analysis. Next, the degree of cohesion of the goals of business is compared with that of labor. Euclidean distance, which represents the degree of dissimilarity in the evaluation of Congress, is the metric used for this purpose. 相似文献