China and swapo: The role of the people's republic in Namibia's liberation and post‐independence relations

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature of the People's Republic of China's relations with Namibia. Prior to liberation, China maintained cordial links with SWAPO, yet was constrained by the close ties the organisation had with Moscow and its allies. However, the absence of any alternative to SWAPO meant that China refrained from supporting any rival organisation to the Soviet‐backed movement, as it did in Zimbabwe or Angola, and the struggle for independence was largely devoid of the Sino‐Soviet dispute found elsewhere in Southern Africa liberation struggles. Upon independence, China was thus in a position where it sought to continue linkages with the SWAPO government, as part of its policy of bolstering itself internationally through the utilization of Third World support. Namibia for its part was eager for investment and economic development, and China has been seen as a useful country to do business with.     

Temporal Order and Causal Inference

Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provideimportant insights into the structure of the political beliefsystems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greatercentrality of some idea elements rather than others in the contextof short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoreticallyrelevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expectedstructural differences connecting policy related predispositionsand policy preferences; specification also makes it possibleto test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudesand emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specificationsdisclose the extent to which population heterogeneity producesa blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on thetotal electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets ofvoters specified by theoretical criteria.     

Generational changes and party identification

The party identification of nonblack voters, separated by region, is examined within three broadly bounded cohorts or political generations consisting of those whose first votes were cast prior to 1932, those of the New Deal era whose first votes were cast between 1932 and 1964, and the post-New Deal generation who have come of voting age since 1964. Inter- and intragenerational comparisons are presented for three political eras reflected in NES data: 1952–60, 1964–76, and 1980–88. Outside the South, the post-New Deal generation was more pro-Democratic in the period 1964–76 than was the older New Deal generation. However, they also led the surge away from the Democrats and to the Republican party between 1980 and 1988. Nevertheless, in the latter period they were less dominantly Republican than were the members of the New Deal generation. In the South the better educated voters of the post-New Deal generation led the realignment that largely eroded the Democratic plurality between 1960 and 1988. Nationally, the policy preferences of the post-New Deal generation in the 1980s further polarized party differences between Democrats and Republicans. This occurred largely because of the substantially greater liberal cast of post-New Deal Democrats' preferences. On other issues, party differences were maintained, but Republicans as well as Independents and Democrats in the post-New Deal generation exhibited visibly more liberal preferences than did their older partisan counterparts in the New Deal generation.