A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model

Time series of event counts are common in political scienceand other social science applications. Presently, there arefew satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in suchdata and accounting for the dynamic processes in event countsregression. We address this issue by building on earlier workfor persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weightedmoving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journalof Political Science 44(4):823–843, 2000). We developan alternative model for stationary mean reverting data, thePoisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model. Issuesof identification and model selection are also considered. Wethen evaluate the properties of this model and present bothMonte Carlo evidence and applications to illustrate.     

Sex trafficking and the mainstream of market culture

The majority of analyses of the international trade in women focusses on the rôle of organised crime groups in the supply and delivery of women across borders and into the local sex trade. This paper (a) attempts to locate the demand for traded women in a broader analysis of changes in the political economy of developed studies and (b) more specifically situates the trade in women in relation to the new-found centrality of sex in the mainstream of popular culture.     

A comparative evaluation of a new generation jail

This study reports findings from an evaluation of a new generation jail in a large southwestern state. The jail is one component of a complex containing a traditional jail, an indirect supervision facility (barracks), and the new generation jail. Using survey and operational data, we compare the new generation jail to the other two facilities. The findings provide generally positive support for the effectiveness of the new generation jail. Inmates and staff were much more satisfied with the physical facilities. Staff perceived it as more secure, though they reported only limited advantages in safety and security. Violence and disciplinary problems were substantially lower. However, no savings in staffing levels were noted, nor were there differences in job satisfaction for staff in the new generation jail. We discuss the implications of the findings and suggest additional directions for jail evaluations.     

A. Reviews and notes of recent bibliographies

i. Middle East and Islam: A Bibliographical Introduction (Bibliotheca Asiatica 15). Edited by Diana Grimwood‐Jones, for the Middle East Libraries Committee [MELCOM]. Revised and enlarged edition. Zug, Inter Documentation Company, 1979. pp. ix, 429.

ii. Middle East Studies and Libraries. A Felicitation Volume for Professor J.D. Pearson. Edited by B.C. Bloomfield. London, Mansell, 1980. pp. xi, 231.

iii. Cultures of the Islamic Near East: A Guide to Introductory Readings for the Non‐Specialist. By John W. Bagnole. Washington, D.C., America‐Mideast Educational & Training Services, Inc. (Occasional Paper, No. 4), 1978. pp. ii, 79. $4.00

iv. The Modern Arab Woman: A Bibliography. By Michelle Raccagni. Metuchen, N.J. & London, The Scarecrow Press, 1978, pp. x, 282.     

Policy trade-offs in “home care”: the Ontario example

Abstract: As Canada enters the twenty-first century, its highly prized program, medicare, is undergoing radical transformation. With technological change and the restructuring of health systems, the locus of care is shifting from institutions to the home. As a result, care that was formerly publicly financed under the Canada Health Act is technically becoming de-insured. This paper analyses the reform of community-based long-term care services in Ontario from 1985 to the present. During this period, three different parties, the Liberals, the ndp and the Progressive Conservatives, in turn, formed the government. Four different models were put forward before the current model was adopted by the current pc government. Each of these models is analysed with respect to design decisions that must be made in the policy dimensions of financing, delivery and allocation and evaluated in terms of equity, liberty, security and efficiency. Underlying the debate in Ontario was a fundamental disagreement about the role of government, reflected in views about the responsibilities of individuals and their families, and the appropriate place of for-profit organizations within a publicly funded system. The reform of this sector has significance that goes beyond its boundaries, with wider implications and warnings for health care in general. Sommaire: Au moment même où le Canada se trouve au seuil du vingtième siècle, son très populaire régime d'assurance-maladie subit une transformation radicale. À cause de l'évolution technologique et de la restructuration du systéme de soins de santé, le fardeau de ces soins se déplace des institutions vers les foyers. Par conséuent, des soins auparavant financés par les deniers public en vertu de la Loi cana-dienne sur la santé deviennent techniquement non-assurés. Dans cet article, on analyse la réforme des services ontariens de soins à long terme axés sur la communauté, de 1985 áG ce jour. Pendant cette période, trois partis differents, les Libéraux, les Né-démocrates et les Progressistes conservateurs ont formé le gouvernment à tour de rôle. Quatre modèles différents ont été préconisés avant l'adoption du modèle actuel par le gouvernement progressiste conservateur qui est aujourd'hui au pou-voir. On y analyse chacun de ces modèles quant aux décisions conceptuelles á faire pour les politiques de financement, de prestation et d'allocation, et chaque modèle doit être évalué en termes d'équité, de liberté, de sécurité et d'efficacité. À l'arrièreplan du débat, en Ontario, il y avait un désaccord fondamental sur le rôle du gouvemement, que reflétaient les opinions concemant la responsabilité des citoyens et de leurs familles ainsi que sur la place appropriée des organismes à but lucratif à au sein d'un système financéà même les derniers publics. La réforme de ce secteur a des répercussions non seulement sur le secteur hi-même mais aussi sur les soins de santé en général.     

Reforming rural Ontario

Abstract: This paper turns the scholarly spotlight onto an overlooked aspect of the Ontario municipal system by exploring the issue of county government reform in four selected communities in southern Ontario. Various proposals for county government reform have been advanced by the provincial government during the last quarter-century; here we consider the “common sense” approach to municipal government reform adopted by the Harris government after its election in 1995. We analyse how four counties have responded to this concerted and forceful attempt to bring about major county restructuring. The study has two major objectives. First, it illustrates the forces that have at once advanced and constrained county government reform in recent years; second, it attempts to explain major differences in the manner in which individual counties have responded to the Harris government's drive for reform. Finally, the paper concludes with some reflections on the viability of rural government in Ontario in the light of the substance and process of county government reform. Sommaire: Cet article examine un aspect négligé du système municipal ontarien en explorant la question de la réforme des gouvernements de comté dans quatre communautés choisies du sud de l'Ontario. Le gouvernement provincial a fait diverses propositions de réforme du gouvemement de comté au cours du demier quart de siècle; ici, nous examinons l'approche basée sur le « ban sens » adoptée par le gouvernement Harris en ce qui concerne les gouvernements municipaux, après son élection en 1995, et nous analysons la manière dont quatre comtés ont réagi à cette tentative concertée et vigoureuse de déclencher une forte restructuration au niveau du comté. Cette étude a deux grands objectifs. Premièrement, elle illustre les forces qui ont à la fois promu et retenu la réforme des gouvernements de comté au cours de ces dernières annèes; deuxièmement, elle essaie d'expliquer les principaux écarts dans la façon dont chaque comté a réagi aux efforts de réforme du gouvemement Harris. Enfin, I'article offer quelques réflexions sur la viabilité du gouvernement rural en Ontario à la lumière du fond et du processus de réforme des gouvernements de comté.     

The State and the Economy: Opinion Formation and Collaboration as Facets of Economic Management

This paper seeks to extend discussion of the areas of state activity that are relevant to economic performance. It does this by linking several literatures that are now usually considered in isolation from each other. These are institutionalist theory, developmental state theory, and comparative and historical institutionalism. The paper focuses particularly on the experience of the east Asian developmental states. The paper suggests a new role for the state as catalyst in the formation of ideas, choice sets and motives concerning economic performance. It can play this role at national and policy community levels and in relation to desired overall outcomes, export or cluster development and innovation. The notion that economic globalization will inexorably drive convergence between states is discounted. On the contrary, this is as likely to nourish miscomprehension or incomprehension between citizens of different states. This is an additional reason for attending to the quality of opinion formation by states.     

Program Strategy and Coalition Building as Facets of New Public Management

This paper explores two issues: first, the strategic and coalition-building tasks that may be routinely associated with New Public Management (NPM); and second, the implications of acknowledging these tasks for the conception of public management. NPM focuses on performance. It invites managers to accept responsibility for whole programs or systems (Kettle, 1997; Dunleavy, 1994; Ridley, 1996; Hood, 1995). This directs attention to basic program frameworks (that is, program strategy), as well as to operations. It involves the purposes of programs. It involves routine attention to such factors as the effectiveness of outcomes, the identification of alternative program configurations, the implications of emerging issues and needs, and the mobilisation of authority for change. In practice, this authority derives both from program stakeholders, as well as from ministers and the broader political system.     

Civil Asset Forfeiture Laws and Equitable Sharing Activity by the Police

Research Summary

For several decades, critics have argued that civil forfeiture laws create incentives for law enforcement to increase departmental revenue by “policing for profit.” By using data on federal equitable sharing payments to nearly 600 local law enforcement agencies between 2000 and 2012, we examine the relationship between the characteristics of state forfeiture laws and equitable sharing payments to local agencies. Our results indicate that agencies in states with state laws that are more restrictive or less rewarding to police collect more in federal equitable sharing. This finding supports the critics’ argument that police behavior in regard to forfeiture activities is influenced by the financial rewards and burdens involved.

Policy Implications

Our results reveal that the findings of investigative journalism and case study research, that is, that police forfeiture activities are influenced by financial rewards, may be more generalizable to law enforcement than previously thought. Despite recent state‐level reforms, federal equitable sharing and most state forfeiture laws provide limited due process protections and have minimal accountability or reporting requirements. Concerns about the impact of civil forfeiture practices on perceptions of procedural justice and police legitimacy are discussed, and possible policy reforms are reviewed.