Extending the Confusion About Bayes

In R v T [2010] EWCA Crim 2439, [2011] 1 Cr App Rep 85, the Court of Appeal indicated that ‘mathematical formulae’, such as likelihood ratios, should not be used by forensic scientists to analyse data where firm statistical evidence did not exist. Unfortunately, when considering the forensic scientist's evidence, the judgment consistently commits a basic logical error, the ‘transposition of the conditional’ which indicates that the Bayesian argument has not been understood and extends the confusion surrounding it. The judgment also fails to distinguish between the validity of the relationships in a formula and the precision of the data. We explain why the Bayesian method is the correct logical method for analysing forensic scientific evidence, how it works and why ‘mathematical formulae’ can be useful even where firm statistical data is lacking.     

Distinguishing Two Meanings of Moral Exclusion: Exclusion from Moral Principles or Principled Harm-Doing?

The concept of “moral exclusion” has often been used to understand harm-doing. The present studies examined two, distinct meanings that have been ascribed to this concept. First, exclusion has sometimes been conceptualized as the belief that moral principles do not apply to a target person or group (e.g., exclusion from the application of justice principles). Second, the term has been used to refer to exclusion from positive treatment that is accorded to others, which the actors believe to be morally justified, though outside observers do not. Distinguishing between these two meanings can clarify the mechanisms underlying the relation between proposed antecedents to exclusion and harm-doing. In two experiments, we obtained evidence compatible with each of these conceptualizations of exclusion, as well as preliminary evidence that certain antecedents are more likely to lead to processes indicative of one or the other conceptualization. Our findings have practical implications for the reduction of harm-doing as well as for conflict that might arise in such attempts.     

The Executive Budget in the Federal Government: The First Century and Beyond

This article reviews the history of executive budgeting in the United States a century after President William Howard Taft's Economy and Efficiency Commission proposed an executive budget. This history, the authors argue, does not suggest that giving more budget power to the president will improve budget outcomes. Instead, what is needed is more cooperation between the branches of government and a better‐educated public—goals that were shared by budget reformers when the Taft report was published.     

Where juvenile serious offenders live: A neighborhood analysis of Wayne County, Michigan

This study investigated the relationship between neighborhood factors and juvenile serious offenders in Wayne County, Michigan. Wayne County is home to Detroit, a city with a glorious past but a bleak future. Administrative data were linked to tract-level census characteristics that proxy for social disorganization structural factors. Results by negative binomial regressions found significant associations in the expected direction with concentrated disadvantage, concentrated affluence, and inequality. Concentrated immigration, however, was insignificantly related to juvenile serious offending, and residential stability increased rather than decreased offending. These counter-theoretical results might be due to the presence of homes inhabited by students and young professionals and the vibrant Latino immigrant communities. The stark contrasts this analysis documented, combined with the high correlation of economic conditions to juvenile crime, demand urgent and radical responses to completely transform impoverished neighborhoods in Wayne County.     

Internal Consistency and Factor Structure of the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales in a Sample of Deaf Female College Students

The Revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2) is currently the most widely used measure for identifying cases of intimate partner violence within the hearing population. The CTS2 has been used successfully with individuals from various countries and cultural backgrounds. However, the CTS2 had not yet been used with Deaf individuals. The goal of the present study was to investigate the internal consistency reliability and the factor structure of the CTS2 within a sample of Deaf female college students. Psychometric analyses indicated that subscales measuring Victimization of Negotiation, Psychological Aggression, Physical Assault, and Injury proved both reliable and valid in the current sample. Three subscales did not evidence reliability and the factor structure was not valid for Perpetration items.     

Effects of Hurricane Katrina and Other Adverse Life Events on Adolescent Female Offenders: A Test of General Strain Theory

This study tested Agnew's General Strain Theory (GST) by examining the roles of anger, anxiety, and maladaptive coping in mediating the relationship between strain and three outcomes (serious delinquency, minor delinquency, and continued involvement in the juvenile justice system) among adolescent female offenders (N = 261). Strains consisted of adverse life events and exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Greater exposure to Hurricane Katrina was directly related to serious delinquency and maladaptive coping. Hurricane Katrina also had an indirect effect on minor delinquency and Post-Katrina juvenile justice involvement mediated through maladaptive coping. Adverse life events were associated with increased anger, anxiety, and maladaptive coping. Anger mediated the relationship between adverse life events and serious delinquency. Anxiety mediated the relationship between adverse life events and minor delinquency. Maladaptive coping strategies were associated with minor delinquency and juvenile justice involvement. Findings lend support to GST.     

Trace evidence: Here today,gone tomorrow?

The recent report of the National Research Council of the US National Academies “Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: a Path Forward” found evidence that the level of scientific development and evaluation varies substantially among the forensic science disciplines. In this paper the status of trace evidence will be reviewed from an international perspective with particular reference to case studies. The paper will argue that the trace evidence discipline needs to learn from past experience and that serious coordinated action is required at an international level if trace evidence is to continue to meet the standards expected of forensic science in the future. The paper concludes that it is vital that trace evidence remains a key component of forensic investigation due to its important role in addressing the ‘what happened’ question.     

Cosmopolitan Duty and Legitimate State Authority

In this paper I apply a suitably developed version of Joseph Raz’s service conception of authority to the debate over the legitimacy of state action aiming to fulfill cosmopolitan moral obligations. I aim to advance two interrelated theses. First, viewed from the perspective of Raz’s service conception of authority, citizens’ moral duties to non-compatriots are an appropriate ground for authoritative intervention by agents of the state. Second, international law based on these duties can also enjoy moral authority over government decision makers. An important source of the moral force of international law is derived from the power of international law to improve officials’ ability to recognize and conform to the totality of their reasons, which contributes to their states’ legitimacy.     

Conceptualizing the Tools of Government in Urban Network Governance

The alleged increase in new governance arrangements is often understood as a challenge, since public leaders are considered to be less able to influence and govern when government is only one out of several stakeholders. Some scholars argue that steering in such settings is fundamentally different from steering in a hierarchical context. This article aims to assess how a classic and generic analytical framework to tools of government, the NATO-scheme developed by Christopher Hood, fits in a setting where local governments attempt to influence networks. Based on in-depth studies of nine urban networks in Norway, we have assessed the toolbox and the use of different tools. The article demonstrates that the suggested generic framework makes sense in a network context. Thus, to bridge the classic literature on policy instruments and the growing discourse on meta-governance would probably be beneficial.     

The physical and mental health status of homeless adults

Abstract

This paper reviews recent research on the physical and mental health status of homeless single adults and briefly summarizes definitional, sampling, and measurement problems. It presents findings from research examining the physical health status of homeless adults; the data suggest that homelessness places people at greater risk for specific health problems and also complicates treatment. The authors then review findings on the mental health status of homeless adults from several methodologically rigorous studies that carefully define and measure mental illness among the homeless population. The final section discusses what is known about the short‐ and long‐term service needs of the physically and mentally disabled homeless population.

The studies reviewed suggest that individuals with chronic physical or severe mental illnesses are more vulnerable than others to homelessness. Homelessness exacerbates physical and/or mental conditions and complicates their treatment. Despite myths to the contrary, research and demonstration programs have shown that most homeless individuals are willing to receive assistance. By linking health and mental health services to appropriate housing, such individuals can be treated and cared for in community settings. However, local communities often do not have the necessary resources to meet the long‐term needs of severely mentally ill or physically disabled homeless people.