Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations

The need for improved long-run projections of prison populations has increased in recent years because of record-high numbers of inmates and severe overcrowding in state and federal prisons, and because of the growing importance of changing demographic factors in influencing corrections populations. A model is developed for projecting: general population demographics; demographic- and offense-specific arrest rates, imprisonment probabilities, and times served; and then the size and composition of prison populations. Model parameters are estimated for Pennsylvania and are shown to be sensitive to demographic factors, particularly age and race. Projections of future arrests, prison commitments, and prison population are developed for Pennsylvania using projections of demographic changes in the state's population. Arrests are expected to peak in 1980, prison commitments are expected to peak in 1985, and prison populations are expected to peak in 1990, with the subsequent declines reflecting the maturation of the postwar baby boom children out of the highly crime-prone ages and, somewhat later, out of the highly prison-prone ages.     

Forgoing New Public Management and Adopting Post‐New Public Management Principles: The On‐Going Civil Service Reform in Israel

Since the 1980s, New Public Management (NPM) and post‐NPM reforms have dominated attempts to improve public administration. The literature suggests several reasons for the latter approach. However, these explanations seem to be less relevant to the ongoing civil service reforms in Israel. The Israeli experience is an example where NPM reforms did not occur, but post‐NPM reforms were adopted enthusiastically decades later. Our findings demonstrate how under the structural conditions of both non‐governability and bureaucratic centralization, post‐NPM reforms may provide an attractive layering strategy, offering the option of changing certain features of the system without requiring a drastic, comprehensive overhaul of it. Once Israeli decision makers decided that there was a real public demand for reform, and long‐term learning and diffusion processes convinced them that change was needed, the characteristics of the post‐NPM approach made it much easier politically for them to adopt. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Business associations in Kenya: the success factors

Governments create the political and economic environment in which their countries' businesses operate, usually described as the ‘enabling environment’ or ‘investment climate’. In response, business associations seek to influence public policy to make it easier for their members to “do business”. Scholars suggest that interest groups are able to form lasting relationships with governments based on a resource exchange mechanism. This paper suggests that, at least in developing countries, a more nuanced explanation is necessary. Business associations, in particular, need proactively to pursue a logic of ‘competence’ as well as a logic of ‘positive relationships’. This paper assesses the outcomes of advocacy projects undertaken by business associations in Kenya in the period 2008–2013, considers the degree to which the associations contributed to the decision to change policy and then analyses the factors perceived by business associations to have led to their success in influencing public policy. We find evidence to support the expectation that business associations must develop a wide range of competences whilst building relationships with multiple stakeholders. The findings will be relevant to practitioners as well as to researchers and donors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reviving the Russian empire: the Crimean intervention through a neoclassical realist lens

Although many policy-makers and scholars maintain that international norms have altered the motivations underlying state behaviour, this article argues that states continue to pursue national self-interest, but in ways that remain understudied. While traditional realist assumptions explain a great deal of state behaviour, they have not been widely used to account for important alternative tools of state intervention, such as economic and normative strategies. Focusing on the case of Russia's 2014 intervention in Ukraine, this article offers insights into how, and under what circumstances, these tools are used to accomplish traditional state objectives. Guided by the tenets of neoclassical realism, the article argues that in the case of Russia, military force is no longer the sole, or even the primary, means used to accomplish traditional security goals. Such dynamics have significant theoretical and policy implications for contemporary international relations.     

Development of Latent Fingermarks from Rocks and Stones

Since the beginning of recorded history, stones have been used in the commission of crimes due to their widespread availability. Stones can be used as a lethal weapon that sometimes might be the only evidence in a serious case. The common perception, even in professional fingermark circles, is that stones do not yield identifiable latent fingermarks. The authors of this research paper examined the feasibility of developing fingermarks from seven types of stones using three latent fingermark techniques: magnetic powder, cyanoacrylate fuming, and ninhydrin. The paper will demonstrate that by classifying stones and rocks according to their natural properties (porosity, permeability, and the nature of surface area), even application of the simplest development techniques can produce good results. In conclusion, chert and limestone yielded the most qualitative and quantitative results using magnetic powder. The time factor is also important in recovering latent fingermarks on stones and rocks.