Bilateralism or the median mandate? An examination of rival perspectives on democratic governance

Michael McDonald and Ian Budge have recently advanced an interpretation of democratic governance based on what they term the 'median mandate'. This perspective locates the key element of liberal democracy in a close correspondence between government policy and the policy preferences of the median voter on the left-right scale. The cross-national evidence they produce in favour of this interpretation is impressive, but it largely hinges on a method for measuring the median voter position in each election that relies on the positions of the various parties in the election and the vote shares they received. This article examines the validity of the median mandate hypothesis when median positions are measured more directly from public opinion surveys (particularly, the Eurobarometer and Comparative Study of Electoral Systems series). The findings show that choice between distinct alternatives, rather than conformity to the median, more accurately characterises governance in democratic systems.     

拉丁美洲从金融危机中吸取的惨痛教训

20世纪90年代以来,拉美地区多次发生金融危机,引起各国学者的广泛关注。美洲开发银行行长恩里克·伊格莱西亚斯先生是拉美著名经济学家,多年从事美洲开发银行领导工作,曾发表过大量相关文章和报告。2005年4月18日,应中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所邀请,恩里克·伊格莱西亚斯先生在拉美所做演讲,精辟地分析了拉美国家的金融危机及相关问题。现将其书面报告全文译出,并将问答内容加以整理,一并发表。     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

Systemic Dissemination of Injected Foreign Material

A 32‐year‐old woman collapsed following an intravenous injection of material that included crushed pharmaceutical tablets. Resuscitation was attempted but was unsuccessful. She had an extensive past medical history of complications resulting from intravenous drug use. Death was due to mixed drug toxicity. The major findings at autopsy included a 10 mm deep skin sinus over the right femoral vein that was used as an injection site. Polarizable foreign material was present at the injection site and also within the lungs with a granulomatous reaction. Of note, a probe‐patent foramen ovale had permitted paradoxical embolization of this material into the systemic circulation with lodgement within the liver, portal lymph nodes, myocardium, spleen, kidneys, and pancreas. This case highlights the importance of checking for any intracardiac shunts, which may be quite small, and systemic dissemination of foreign material to multiple organs in intravenous drug users who present for medicolegal assessment.     

The Probabilistic Genotyping Software STRmix: Utility and Evidence for its Validity

Forensic DNA interpretation is transitioning from manual interpretation based usually on binary decision‐making toward computer‐based systems that model the probability of the profile given different explanations for it, termed probabilistic genotyping (PG). Decision‐making by laboratories to implement probability‐based interpretation should be based on scientific principles for validity and information that supports its utility, such as criteria to support admissibility. The principles behind STRmix? are outlined in this study and include standard mathematics and modeling of peak heights and variability in those heights. All PG methods generate a likelihood ratio (LR) and require the formulation of propositions. Principles underpinning formulations of propositions include the identification of reasonably assumed contributors. Substantial data have been produced that support precision, error rate, and reliability of PG, and in particular, STRmix?. A current issue is access to the code and quality processes used while coding. There are substantial data that describe the performance, strengths, and limitations of STRmix?, one of the available PG software.     

Evaluation of neodymium isotope analysis of human dental enamel as a provenance indicator using 1013 Ω amplifiers (TIMS)

Human provenance studies employing isotopic analysis have become an essential tool in forensic and archaeological sciences, with multi-isotope approaches providing more specific location estimates compared to single isotope studies. This study reports on the human provenancing capability of neodymium isotopes (¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd), a relatively conservative tracer in the environment. Neodymium isotope ratios have only recently been determined on human remains due to low concentrations in human dental enamel (ppb range), requiring thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS) using 10¹³ Ω resistors. Dental elements (third molars) from 20 individuals born and raised in the Netherlands were analysed for Nd concentration (n = 12) and Nd isotope ratios (n = 15). The geological control on Nd isotope composition was examined using coupled Nd-Sr isotope analysis of the same third molar. Teeth from different geological environments were also analysed (Caribbean, Columbian, and Icelandic, n = 5). Neodymium elemental concentrations in dental elements ranged between 0.1 and 7.9 ppb (median 0.5 ppb). The Dutch ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of the provinces of Limburg and Friesland were between 0.5118 and 0.5121, with Dutch ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in agreement with the previously established local range (0.708–0.710). The current findings were compared to previously published results on Nd concentration and composition from Dutch individuals. The concentration of Nd and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios were weakly correlated (R² = 0.47, n = 17) in Dutch human dental enamel. The majority (n = 25, 83.3%) of individuals had Nd and Sr isotope values isotopically indistinguishable from the geological environment in which their third molars formed and mineralised. However, the Nd isotope ratios of the Icelandic individual and several Dutch individuals (n = 4) suggested that Nd in enamel is not solely influenced by geological environment. In order for neodymium isotopes to be quantitatively applied in forensic and archaeological settings further analyses of individuals from various geographical regions with well-defined dietary Nd isotope data are required.     

Obesity,Body Mass Index,and Homicide

The body mass indexes (BMIs) of 100 randomly selected homicide cases from the files of Forensic Science SA were compared to the Australian and South Australian populations. There were 70 males and 30 females (M:F = 2.3:1; age range 18–84 years; mean 42.3 years). There was a substantially lower proportion of obese individuals in the homicide population compared to the general Australian and South Australian populations (19% [vs.] 27.9% and 30%, respectively). A second group of 144 randomly selected autopsy cases where the BMI was ≥40 kg/m² was analyzed. There were 77 males and 67 females (M:F = 1.2:1; age range 23–78 years; mean 46.7 years). The majority of deaths were natural (N = 108), with no homicides. A negative association between obesity and homicide has, therefore, been demonstrated. Reasons for the lower numbers of obese/morbidly obese individuals among homicide victims are unclear, but may include physical protection afforded by fat padding from sharp force injuries, and relative sociodemographic isolation.