Principal–Agent Dynamics and Electoral Manipulation: Local Risks,Patronage and Tactical Variation in Russian Elections, 2003–2012

Abstract

Why are some elections manipulated more severely than others, and why do the techniques used to manipulate them vary over time and space? This article addresses these related questions by showing that patronage resources—not incumbent popularity—make manipulation appealing to frontline agents, while local political conditions can make manipulation personally risky for them. Agents can mitigate these risks by adopting more dispersed forms of manipulation like vote-buying, rather than more centralised falsification. These hypotheses are tested using forensic analysis of electoral data from more than 90,000 precincts per election across Russia’s 83 regions, from 2003 to 2012.     

Postmortem Computed Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Gunshot Wounds to the Neck

Postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is rarely used for the radiologic assessment of gunshot injuries, although it has clear advantages over postmortem computed tomography (CT) with regard to the imaging of soft tissue injuries. Another benefit in using MRI is that lodged projectiles composed of nonferromagnetic material such as lead present only marginal metal artifacts compared with severe artifacts on CT. This case report presents CT and MRI findings in a case with two gunshot wounds to the neck: a perforating wound and a nonperforating wound with a lead bullet lodged in the cervical spine. The decedent underwent CT and MRI before the scheduled autopsy. A ring of radiopaque material under the dermis in the fatty tissue was identified at both entrance wounds on CT, which was indicative of contact shots. The perforating gunshot was clearly indicated on CT by bullet fragments along the wound channel through the perforated 6th cervical vertebra and the fractured cricoid cartilage at the exit wound. The second trajectory, however, was only assumed based on the presence of gunshot residues at the entrance wound and the position of the lodged bullet. The radiologic assessment was severely impeded by the metal artifacts on CT. Barely noticeable metal artifacts on MRI allowed for clear visualization of the soft tissue injuries and the ruptured medulla oblongata. Only MRI clarified the soft tissue injuries of the brainstem noninvasively, which could provide specific and graphic information on the rapidity of death and the incapacitation of the victim.     

Volatile Organic Compounds,Spectral Characterization and Morphology of Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil (ANFO) Samples

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil is an explosive mixture found in most antipersonnel landmines (APL) buried throughout the Colombian territory. During more than 50 years of internal conflict, the Colombian government has found that trained dogs are the most effective method to detect APL. However, the olfactive signature in ANFO is unknown and also if there are differences in detection related to the explosive manufacturing origin. Therefore, this work begins with the analytical validation of the method used to determine ammonia, in its derivatized form as carbamate, released by home-made ANFO using HS-SPME-GC-FID. Once validated, the method was used to identify ammonia and other organic volatile compounds present in ANFO, under laboratory and simulated field conditions. The validation process includes the evaluation of the optimum conditions for the derivation and extraction of butylcarbamate, the determination of the working ranges with linear response in FID, the limits of detection and quantification, the sensitivity, and the precision. The results of the validation established linearity and sensitivity in a concentration between 20 and 120 mg/L, as well as low limits of detection and quantification of 6.4 and 21.4 mg/L, respectively. Also, an intermediate precision of 11% for butylcarbamate with a repeatability of 8%. The validated method showed in real samples of home-made ANFO besides ammonia, the presence of low molecular methylamines, and also exhibited differences in volatile compositions according to the origin. The objective of this work is to offer a reliable analytical methodology for the extraction and analysis of volatile compounds from ANFO.     

Combined Collection and Analysis of Inorganic and Organic Gunshot Residues

Gunshot residue (GSR) analysis and their interpretation provide crucial information on a criminal investigation involving the use of firearms. To date, several approaches have been proposed for the implementation of a combined sampling and analysis of inorganic (IGSR) and organic GSR (OGSR). However, it is not clear at this stage if concurrent analyses of both types of residue might be detrimental to the analysis of IGSR currently applied in forensic laboratories. Thus, this work aims to compare and evaluate three different protocols for the combined collection and analysis of IGSR and OGSR. These methods, respectively, involve the use of a modified stub (with two halves, one for the detection of IGSR and the other for the analysis of OGSR); the sequential recovery of GSR with two stubs mounted with different adhesives (double-sided carbon tape and Tesa® TACK) and the sequential analysis of IGSR and OGSR from a single carbon stub following carbon deposition. The detection of IGSR was carried out using SEM-EDX, while OGSR analysis was performed using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Obtained results for experiments performed using Geco Sinoxid^® ammunition indicated that sequential analysis was the most suitable protocol for the combined collection and analysis of both IGSR and OGSR. A higher number of inorganic (characteristic and consistent) particles and higher concentrations of ethylcentralite, N-nitrosodiphenylamine, diphenylamine, and nitroglycerin were recovered with this method.     

DNA Recovery From Tape-Lifting Kits: Methodology and Practice

In the case of suspicious deaths, the technique of 1:1 taping is often used in Belgium. It consists of affixing a large number of adhesive tapes to the body of the victim. It is conventionally aimed at obtaining microtraces (e.g., fibers, hair) and is usually not used for DNA analysis. However, in some cases, DNA analysis of certain areas of interest identified on the 1:1 taping material can offer a last resort solution. The four-step method that is described in this article involves the selection of areas of interest on the body (Step 1), the selection of the corresponding tapes (Step 2), the decontamination of the tapes (Step 3), the selection of areas of interest on the tapes, for DNA sampling (Step 4). The method is illustrated by its successful application in four murder cases. In each case, DNA profiles of good quality could be identified, including profiles of persons different from the victim.     

Feedback on Forensic Mental Health Assessments in a Juvenile Court Clinic Certification Program

Public-sector mental health systems have set forth specialized practice competencies for forensic mental health clinicians conducting court-ordered examinations. This study examined a sample of feedback letters to clinicians who submitted mid-training and final reports for review as part of the requirements for certification as a juvenile court clinician. The most common feedback points were insufficient/irrelevant historical data, problems with clarity/organization of the report, problems with interview/mental status examination, and problems with competency to stand trial data/opinions. Clinicians had fewer deficiencies in their final report compared to their mid-training report, supporting the perspective that forensic training and supervision is associated with better quality reports.     

MI Implementation in Juvenile Justice: A Case Report

Motivational interviewing (MI) is a communication style focused on enhancing clients’ own motivation towards change. In the justice system MI has evidence to support that it enhances communication and change behaviors in youth. As most MI training is designed for healthcare settings training and implementation of MI must be adapted to fit the juvenile justice model. This includes both rehabilitation and restorative justice. Here we describe the details that allowed one county small county in Pennsylvania to roll out MI training and initial skills review in less than 6 months. The case reviews the details of planning, trainings, and timing of activities. We then discuss what elements of those details fit into a greater implementation plan that may be applied elsewhere. Four key elements were instrumental to implementation: 1) appreciation of JPO time constraints, 2) cost containment 3) using blending to enhance JPO flexibility with MI use, and 4) policies that normalize use of MI. This outline may assist other courts in their own implementation efforts.     

Executive Particularism and Ministerial Selection in India

Why do political parties in parliamentary systems undertake actions, such as joining a coalition government, that will entail significant costs for their members in subsequent elections? Recent research points to the incentive structures faced by differentially positioned members of a parliamentary party: unlike backbenchers, MPs who hold a ministerial portfolio can use the prerequisites of executive office to shield themselves from the costs of governance. This article tests the theory of executive particularism by examining the electoral fortunes of government ministers in India. Sitting government ministers are found to outperform other candidates; however, tests of causality fail to demonstrate that holding a ministerial portfolio causes this electoral benefit. Instead, it appears that a candidate’s electoral performance enhances the likelihood of being granted a ministerial portfolio in the first place. This finding raises questions about the generalizability of claims that party elites can use ministerial office to shield themselves from the costs of governing.