Swings and gerrymanders

It is usual for electoral analysts to calculate the swing necessary at the next election to unseat a government, assuming that the swing is a uniform one. However, swings are not uniform. The non-uniform swing which would, on average, unseat a government is shown to be different from the uniform swing. For example, at the next Australian election for the House of Representatives, a uniform swing of 1.5 per cent against the current government would cause it to lose five seats, leaving it in a minority of 73 out of 148 seats, but a non-uniform swing of only 0.8 per cent would, on average, have the same effect. Implications of this variability for the size of the majority, the possibilities of a Parliament with an even number of seats being equally-divided, and the use of this analysis to detect gerrymandering and to correct for it, are considered.     

After the cold war

He is co-editor (with Kenneth W. Thompson) of Truth and Tragedy: A Festschrift for Hans J. Morgenthau,and editor of The Political Morality of the IMF.He is currently writing a book on Understanding Ethics.     

Problems of co-ordination in upazila administration in Bangladesh

The present government of Bangladesh has extensively reformed the administrative system and upgraded the previous thana to upazila (sub-district) to serve as the focal point of development administration. A new tier of local government called Upazila Parishad (UZP) has been created and a large number of functions have been devolved to this institution along with the placement of central government employees at its disposal. The reformers argue that the present system will remove the inadequacies of the previous administrative system and will bring about an improvement in the co-ordination of field services at the upazila level. However, the actual situation represents a totally different picture. The desired integration— both vertical and horizontal—and co-ordination in local level planning is non-existent due to the absence of any clear direction from the central government. Proper co-ordination among the field services in the upazila administration does not exist due to the anomalous relation between the upazila and the national government, including excessive central control; the involvement of multiple agencies of the central government in guiding and supervising; ambiguity in government thinking; the absence of clarification from the ministries concerned and agencies on the timing of different development programmes; and conflict over the allocation of resources. There is also conflict between the different tiers of local government in respect of authority and resources. Relations between public representatives and officials at the upazila level are strained because a clear allocation of authority to political executives is lacking; areas for co-operation among different agencies have not been clarified; and public representatives and government officials lack mutual respect.     

Political fragmentation of the Dutch Windward Islands

The Dutch Windward Islands are examined to see if they throw any light on the problems experienced when very small island communities try to come together to form a larger political unit. The Constitution of 1954, though federal in intent, was unitary in practice, with the main island, Curacao treating the others like municipalities. However the island authorities are capable of asserting themselves against the centre. They control implementation, raise revenue and receive local political support. Because of the small size of the populations and civil services involved, island and federal officials collaborate harmoniously. Leading individuals are important for development, notably St Maarten's Claude Wathey. New initiatives also require effective negotiations to deal with off-shore tourist organizations. However, there is little significant industry beyond tourism. In 1988 the three Dutch Windward Islands agreed to co-operate with each other. Decentralization within the largest island could help this cooperation as could a regional association along the lines of the South Pacific Forum.     

The state of training in public policy management in Ghana

This paper discusses the relevance and state of training in public policy management in Ghana. The author argues that the lack of an institutional base for policy analysis is evident in the abdication and paralysis of policy-making, as well as the inability of the management development institutions to institutionalize training programmes in public policy management. Recognizing politicians and bureaucrats as complementary actors in the policy process, it is argued that organizing training programmes for them could contribute to improved policy-making. The content, methodology, duration, target group and impact of current training programmes in public policy management are analysed. Although the dearth of relevant local reading material on policy issue is identified as a problem in the teaching of public policy in Ghana, reference is made to some available publications on local public policy issues which could supplement Western-biased reading materials. Other problems discussed are the heterogeneous background of course participants and the non-involvement of faculty members in policy making. The paper concludes with recommendations on policy preview workshops; seminars for politicians and senior bureaucrats; development of policy analysts; and complementarity among the local management development institutions.     

Explaining Petroleum Policy in Britain and Norway, 1962-90

Petroleum policy in Britain and Norway provides comparativists with an opportunity to study policy formation, stability, and transformation on a cross-national basis. This study explains why British and Norwegian officials decided to intervene in the North Sea, why offshore policy in the two countries went through periods of stability and change, and why they adopted similar offshore systems in the 1960s and 1970s but diverged markedly in the 1980s. We develop an explanatory framework using insights from state-centric, group politics, rational choice, and institutional models of policy-making. The framework identifies three decision-making contexts in which petroleum policy-makers operate simultaneously: an oil context, a domestic political context, and an international context, Each context establishes objectives for policy-makers, indicates an acceptable degree of government intervention, and narrows policy options. Rational decision-making within each context, however, may yield conflicting results. These must be worked out through intrastate and/or state-society bargaining. The decision-making contexts in Britain and Norway produced similar policies in the 1960s and 1970s, but the similarities hid deeper differences. Norwegian officials consistently favored state intervention offshore, and Norwegian interest groups successfully lobbied the state for offshore favors, while British officials intervened more reluctantly and paid less attention to societal interests. Differences in decision-making contexts finally produced a major divergence in offshore policies in the 1980s when the Thatcher government dismantled the state's offshore participation policy.