Chinese debate on military strategy: Trends & portents

The 1980s have witnessed an intense debate by China’s strategic community over a military strategy in response to what Beijing sees as a shifting, but still complex and potentially troublesome, security environment. though the debate is yet to conclude, the broad contours of the new doctrine have been sketched out. Acknowledging that both superpowers are increasingly constrained by economic, political, and military factors in their contest for supremacy, Chinese analysts continue to warn against lowering armed guard at a time when the focus of the arms race is shifting to new frontiers: outer space and oceans. They would like China to strengthen its national defense rather than rely an arms control to mitigate threats to its security. China is continuing its defense modernization program, which will reshape its force structure and enhance its conventional and nuclear capabilities. and the author ofChinese National Security and Nuclear Arms Control [M. E. Sharpe, forthcoming].     

Reviews

African Historiographies: What History for Which Africa? edited by Bogumil Jewsiewicki and David Newbury SAGE Publications, Beverly Hills (California) and London, 1986. 320 pp. including figures, notes and bibliography. £33,00.

Rural‐Urban Migration: Aspects of Theory, Policy and Practice by Francois Theron and Johann F. Graaff University Publishers, Stellenbosch and Grahamstown, 1987. 64 pp. including tables, notes and bibliography. R7,50 paperback.

German Imperialism in Africa: From the Beginnings until the Second World War edited by Helmuth Stoecker C. Hurst and Co., London, 1986. 446 pp. including bibliography and index. £17,50.

Elections in Independent Africa edited by Fred M. Hayward Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1987. xvii plus 318 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, bibliography and index. $36,50 paperback.

Africa and Israel: Relations in Perspective by Olusola Ojo Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1988. xiv plus 181 pp. including tables, notes and index. $23,50 paperback.

Rural Transformation in Tropical Africa edited by Douglas Rimmer Ohio University Press, Athens (Ohio), and Belhaven Press, London, 1988. viii plus 177 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. $27,95.

Ethiopia: Transition and Development in the Horn of Africa by Mulatu Wubneh and Yohannis Abate Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), and Avebury, London, 1988. xv plus 224 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, appendix, select bibliography and index. $28,00.

Ethiopia: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1974–1985 by David A. Korn Croom Helm, London and Sydney, 1986. xvii plus 199 pp. including map, notes, appendices, select bibliography and index. £19,95.

Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia by Christopher Clapham Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York and Sydney, 1988. xviii plus 284 pp. including map, tables, notes, bibliography and index. £30,00.

Politics and the Military in Uganda, 1890–1985 by Amii Omara‐Otunnu St. Martin's Press, New York, 1987. xx plus 218 pp. $35,00 paperback.

The Soviet Union, the Third World and Southern Africa by Jack Spence South African Institute of International Affairs, Johannesburg, 1988. vi plus 35 pp. including references. R10,00 paperback.

The Battlefronts of Southern Africa by Colin Legum Africana Publishing Co., New York and London, 1988. xxix plus 451 pp. including map, notes, appendices and indexes. $34,50 paperback.

The Politics of Development in Botswana: A Model for Success? by Louis A. Picard Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1987. xiv plus 298 pp. including tables, figures, notes, select bibliography and index. $26,50.

Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa, 1910–1986 by Merle Lipton Wildwood House, London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1986. xi plus 473 pp. including map, tables, notes and index. $8,95 paperback.

Class, Community and Conflict: South African Perspectives edited by Belinda Bozzoli Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xx plus 573 pp. including tables, illustrations, notes and index. R35,00 paperback.

Growing Up in a Divided Society: The Contexts of Childhood in South Africa edited by Sandra Burman and Pamela Reynolds Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1986. xvi plus 454 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, references and index. R28,00 paperback.

South Africa under Apartheid: A Select and Annotated Bibliography by Jacqueline A. Kalley Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, 1987. xiii plus 544 pp. including index. R39,00 paperback.     

Parenting satisfaction of mothers during midlife

The present investigation explores the relations among midlife identity concerns, marital satisfaction, mental health, and parenting satisfaction among mothers of preadolescents and early adolescents. Data were obtained from 129 intact families with a firstborn child between the ages of 10 and 15. The results suggest that intense midlife concerns are associated with diminished satisfaction with parenting, although this relation is moderated by the mother's reported marital satisfaction and her overall psychological wellbeing. Specifically, mothers with intense midlife crisis symptoms report higher parenting satisfaction when their marital satisfaction is high, but lower parental satisfaction when their midlife concerns are accompanied by psychological distress. The relations among midlife concerns, marital satisfaction, psychological symptoms, and mothers' satisfaction with parenting are not moderated by the sex of the adolescent.The research reported here is part of a larger investigation supported by grants to the second author by the William T. Grant Foundation and the Graduate School Research Committee of the University of Wisconsin —Madison. This paper is based on a senior thesis completed by the first author in the Department of Child and Family Studies at the University of Wisconsin—Madison.Interests are in adolescent development and sex differences.Interests are in adolescent development and family relations.     

Proposed fiscal year 1997 budgets for social and behavioral science research

COSSA is the advocate in Washington for the social and behavioral sciences. He also chairs the Coalition for National Science Funding. He has testified before Congress many times and has written and spoken extensively on legislative-executive relations, the federal budget process and science policy, particularly as it affects the social and behavioral sciences. This report was prepared by the author with the assistance of the COSSA staff.     

(Non)equivalence in a federalism: Dual tax shares, flypaper effects and Leviathan

Among the best-known theorems of fiscal federalism is the presumed allocative and distributive equivalence between a lump-sum grant to a collectivity and a set of lump sum grants to the members of a collectivity. Interestingly, the simple elegance of the theorem is at odds with observed behavior. Grants to governments produce greater public spending than does tax reduction. Explanations of this "flypaper effect" range from misspecified econometric modeling to presumed behavior based on fiscal illusion. In this paper we show that theoretical equivalence exists in a model that recognizes only one tax share, the citizen voter's local tax share. When the model is expanded to include voters' federal tax shares as well as local taxes, non-equivalence and the flypaper effect become the rule, not the exception.     

The public demand for smoking bans

Smoking bans are gaining widespread support in the United States and other countries. While supporters argue that bans are necessary to resolve market failures associated with negative externalities, the Coase Theorem predicts that, under various conditions, private markets internalize negative externalities. We examine the smoking issue within the framework of the Coase Theorem and hypothesize that smoking bans misallocate air space resources shared by smokers and nonsmokers. Because smoking bans shift ownership of scarce resources, they are also hypothesized to transfer income from one party (smokers) to another party (nonsmokers). Supporting evidence for these hypotheses is provided by an examination of a comprehensive smoking ban imposed in San Luis Obispo, CA.     

The political economy of central bank intervention

This paper analyzes an exchange rate policy game between a central bank and rational speculators under symmetric information. The central bank tries to counteract shocks to the exchange rate by means of sterilized intervention working through the expectations channel. Private speculators resist being fooled. They anticipate the interventions. An “intervention bias” results with an inefficiently high equilibrium volume of intervention which does not reduce the impact of shocks to the exchange rate. The model implies that the more independent the central bank the smaller and the more consistent the intervention efforts. An empirical illustration lends some support to the model.