Discrepancies Between Crime Reports and Crime Surveys:

The absence of strong zero-order associations between victimization and official crime rates for cities has been a puzzle for social scientists since the data for making such comparisons became available. Using the 26 large central cities for which data on both types of rates are available, we analyze the extent to which discrepancies between the rates can be accounted for by aspects of urban social structure that differ from city to city. After introducing such structural controls, we find a much closer correspondence between the two types of rates for motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and forcible rape, but not for aggravated assault and larceny-theft. These results are explained by citing evidence that we have identified some critical "suppressor" variables for the former crimes (i.e., variables that are positively associated with one type of rate and negatively associated with the other). By contrast, the heterogeneous nature of the phenomena subsumed by the latter two crime categories may preclude identification of a similarly parsimonious list of suppressors. One implication of these conclusions is that cross-sectional analyses of intercity variation in official rates may produce results that are in reasonably close correspondence with what would be obtained with victimization rates for certain index crimes, provided that sufficient structural control variables are utilized.     

VARIATION IN AFRICAN-AMERICAN HOMICIDE RATES: AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS*

Using 1990 data for 222 metropolitan areas, this study extends the traditional variables examined in models of homicide and uses regression analysis to test the viability of three alternative theories that may explain high rates of African-American homicide victimization. The first approach examines the extent to which weak forms of social control have contributed to high homicide rates. The second approach tests the notion that discrimination and inequality have increased levels of absolute and relative deprivation for blacks, which in turn engender frustration and contribute to higher levels of violence. The third approach posits that engagement in violent activity may be a rational act for young African-American males faced with the reality of highly limited economic opportunities. While all three approaches contribute to explaining high African-American homicide, this study shows the greatest support for the social control explanation.     

MEASURING LAMBDA THROUGH SELF-REPORTS*

The Rand Corporation 's pioneering study on self-reported measures of individual offending rates has generated considerable controversy. In this study, the Rand methodology was refined in an attempt to achieve more precise estimates of λ Individual interviews, a more detailed calendar system, and month-by-month reporting were used with an intake cohort of 403 recently convicted male offenders. This paper examines variability in offending rates within individuals, in particular their highest rates and most recent rates, and the implications for measuring λ