The likelihood of social choice violations in rank sum scoring: algorithms and evidence from NCAA cross country running

Recent contributions have used combinatorial algorithms to determine the likelihood of particular social choice violations in rank sum scoring. Given the broad importance of rank sum scoring (e.g., in non-parametric statistical testing, sporting competition, and mathematical competition), it is important to establish the level of ambiguity generated by this aggregation rule. Combinatorial likelihoods are naïve, however, in that they assume each possible outcome sequence for an event to be equally likely. We develop a computational algorithm to extend upon previous combinatorial results as to the likelihood of a violation of transitivity or independence in rank sum scoring. We use a similar computational scoring approach to analyze the empirically-observed likelihood of each such violation across fourteen NCAA Cross Country Championships. Within the data, rank sum scoring fails to specify a robust winning team (i.e., one that also rank sum wins against each possible subset of opponents) in 4 of 14 cases. Overall, we find that empirical likelihoods of social choice violations are consistently (significantly) overestimated by combinatorial expectations. In the NCAA data, we find correlated ability (quality) levels within team (group) and discuss this as a cause of lower empirical likelihoods. Combinatorial analysis proves reliable in predicting the order of empirical likelihoods across violation type and event setting.     

Torres Strait Governance Structures and the Centenary of Australian Federation: A Missed Opportunity?

In his 1993 Boyer lecture, Getano Lui Jnr called for a change in the status of Torres Strait governance structures within the Australian federation, nominating the centenary of Federation on 1 January 2001 as a possible time for change. In 1996, the Commonwealth Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs initiated a parliamentary committee inquiry into greater autonomy for the people of the Torres Strait, which reported favourably in 1997. This report was not, however, greeted all that favourably by Torres Strait Islanders and it now seems unlikely that any significantly new governance structures for Torres Strait will be in place by the centenary of Federation. This paper attempts to explain why.     

Being a Good Senior Manager in Indigenous Community Governance: Working with Public Purpose and Private Benefit

This article seeks to understand the role of being a senior manager in Indigenous community governance, particularly though not exclusively in remote Aboriginal communities. It argues against the tendency of would‐be reformers of Indigenous community governance to focus on the competence and ethical qualities of those who occupy these roles and asks instead how can isolated managerialism in Indigenous community governance be overcome? The article begins with an overview of Ralph Folds' analysis of relations between Pintupi settlements and the larger Australian polity. While taking much from Folds' analysis, the article argues that ultimately he relies too heavily on the idea of antithetical worldviews across the settlement interface, on a problematic distinction between the official and private uses of publicly allocated resources and on too idealist a view of the Australian state. The article argues that the state's allocation of public resources inevitably involves a flow of private benefits and that public purposes and private benefits are not different phenomena, but rather different perspectives on state action. In contrast to Folds' idealism about the state, the article outlines a more thoroughly realist or materialist analysis of being a good senior manager in Indigenous community governance. In its concluding section, the article makes some suggestions for overcoming isolated managerialism in Indigenous community governance oganisations.     

One Man's Damage: The Consequences of Boris Johnson's Assault on the British Political System

The disgraced British prime minister, Boris Johnson, was forced to resign by his own backbench MPs on 7 July 2022 (effective from 6 September) in complete denial that he had done anything wrong. Optimists might argue that this shows the strength of the British political system; that a way was found to throw out a proven rascal, thus providing the opportunity for a restoration of ‘normal politics’. In my view, this optimism is misplaced. Boris Johnson's behaviour, mirroring that of his populist role model, Donald Trump, has raised a number of serious questions about the continued successful functioning of the UK's unwritten constitution. The article reviews the character of Johnson's constitutional violations during his period as prime minister. Using data from a recent survey of UK voters, it then explores the damaging effect that his period in office has had on UK public opinion. Despite his removal from office, Johnson retains a hard core of support across the wider electorate and, in particular, among grassroots Conservative supporters and party members. These supporters remain largely unaware of Johnson's constitutional crimes, and where they do know about them, they forgive them. This creates the real danger either that Johnson may at some future date return to office to repeat his offences, or that a similarly populist successor might deploy the same anti-democratic devices that Johnson himself used in his desperate attempts to cling to power.     

Who should I look at? Eye contact during collective interviewing as a cue to deceit

Pairs of liars and pairs of truth tellers were interviewed and the amount of eye contact they made with the interviewer and each other was coded. Given that liars take their credibility less for granted than truth tellers, we expected liars to monitor the interviewer to see whether they were being believed, and to try harder to convince the interviewer that they were telling the truth. It was hypothesised that this monitoring would manifest itself through more eye contact with the interviewer and less eye contact with each other than in the case of truth tellers. A total of 43 pairs of participants took part in the experiment. Truth tellers had lunch in a nearby restaurant. Liars took some money from a purse, and were asked to pretend that instead of taking the money, they had been to a nearby restaurant together for lunch. Pairs of liars looked less at each other and displayed more eye contact with the interviewer than pairs of truth tellers. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Are you talking to me? Influencing behaviour and culture in police interviews

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between two types of influencing behaviour in police interviews (being kind and rational persuasion) and three types of interview effectiveness, i.e. the suspects’ willingness to give a statement, their estimation of the quality of the relationship with the detective, and suspects’ admission. We expected that being kind and rational persuasion (arguments referring to logic and rationality) would have a different effect on suspects from cultures that tend to be direct and content-oriented (low-context cultures) versus cultures in which communication is more indirect and context orientated (high-context cultures). To examine this, experienced police detectives interviewed mock theft suspects from low-context (n=25) and high-context (n=27) cultures. As predicted, and particularly for high-context suspects, being kind in terms of rewarding and offering was positively related to the perceived quality of the relationship of the suspect, while being kind in terms of active listening behaviour was positively related to admissions. Furthermore, and as expected, there was a positive relationship between rational persuasion of the police detective and admissions for low-context suspects, but also a negative relationship between rational persuasion and admissions for high-context suspects.     

Risk,reconviction and “sexually risky behaviour” in sex offenders

Abstract

The Challenge Project is a community assessment and treatment programme in southeast London. The Project has been evaluated extensively in relation to community failure, with consideration of static risk prediction tools and the role of key developmental variables. This current paper is an extension of earlier evaluations, considering an extended range of outcomes with a longer-term follow-up period of more than nine years at risk in the community. The official sexual reconviction rate for this sample of sex offenders (of whom 275 were at risk in the community) was 12%. A wider definition of “sexually risky behaviours” as an outcome variable, drawn from a range of police intelligence, suggested a “truer” sexual re-offending rate of 20%. Although static tools were moderately predictive of community failure, the accuracy of risk prediction was enhanced if static tools were considered in conjunction with developmental variables.     

Partisan Bridges to Bipartisanship: The Case of Contraceptive Coverage

The negative consequences of polarization have been pointed to by scholars and politicians alike as evidence of a need for a renewal of bipartisanship. However, scholarship on bipartisanship remains limited. This article develops a theory of partisan bridging that predicts when and why certain legislators might be willing to cross the partisan aisle. I argue that personal preferences can lead some legislators to cross the aisle in search of consensus, in effect serving as “partisan bridges.” I test my theory by examining the role of Republican women in the diffusion of contraceptive coverage at the state level. Through an individual‐level analysis of sponsorship and vote choice and an aggregate‐level analysis of policy diffusion, I find that moderate Republican women at times served as critical actors in the policy process.