The Study of Intelligence in Theory and Practice

The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of ‘a priori’ interpretation of probability with a higher level of ‘relative frequency’ interpretation is the result of this paper.     

Sexual Harassment in the Federal Workplace

What factors influence the likelihood that a federal worker will receive unwanted sexual attention? Who is most likely to be accused of sexual harassment? What factors influence federal workers' perceptions of the effectiveness of agency sexual harassment training? Using the raw data file of the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board's most recent survey on sexual harassment, the authors find that worker characteristics are the principal influence on the likelihood that a worker will receive unwanted sexual attention and whether an agency's sexual harassment training is perceived favorably. Contextual factors demonstrate lesser influence. Their conclusions lead the authors to believe that a reevaluation of training programs is in order. A one‐size‐fits‐all training approach may no longer be tenable, if it ever was.