Bread-and-Butter Agreement and High Politics Disagreement Some Reflections on the Contextual Impact on Agricultural Interests in EC Policy-Making*

In public policy literature a classical argument is that the scope and content of decisions shape both the structure of the policy-making process and the configuration of actors involved. Recent studies have strongly emphasized that the patterns of segmentation and specialization found in national policy-making are also found in EC policy-making. Against this background, the present article discusses the conditions and impact of agricultural interests in EC policy-making in light of the economic crisis of recent years and the increasing budgetary problems faced by the EC. The article illustrates, especially with reference to the Danish case, the special importance of the national interest organization-government relationship for the strategies pursued by national agricultural interest organizations in influencing EC/CAP policy-making. Furthermore, the article indicates how policy-making concerning the CAP has become more complicated as a consequence of the general economic crisis and recent sharp fall in farmers' incomes. National governments are the central actors in the Community policy-making process, and their impulse to promote exclusive national interests in the Community policy-making process has increased. In addition, agriculture has been integrated in the overall Community ‘crisis’ policy, and this development has weakened the segmentation in relation to the CAP. However, because of the general problems of the EC, the national agricultural organizations of the various member states have a growing interest in emphasizing joint activities and mutual agreement with regard to fundamental agricultural issues on Community level. This may affect the role of COPA leaving it primarily as a coordinator and mediator among the various national agricultural organizations, because pressures are more likely to succeed at the national level than at the EC level. This is where ‘bread-and-butter’ agreement really counts in the future. The alternative is that COPA will lose its credibility in EC policy-making.     

Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises

Previous research has shown that a leader’s preconflict tenure affects the likelihood of conflict occurrence, while conflict outcomes affect a leader’s postconflict tenure. I argue that a leader’s preconflict tenure should affect not only conflict occurrence but conflict outcomes as well, specifically by increasing a leader’s professional competence and increasing the likelihood that the state will emerge victorious from international crises. This effect should weaken as the constraints upon leaders’ behaviors increase and their competence becomes less important for policy outcomes. Using a bivariate probit model with selection and a dyadic data set on international crises experienced by 195 countries between 1950 and 2000, I find moderate-to-strong support for the hypotheses.     

Race and the Housing Cycle: Differences in Home Equity Trends Among Long-Term Homeowners

During the past decade, housing markets across the United States experienced dramatic upheaval. Housing prices rose rapidly throughout much of the country from 2000 until the start of 2007 and then fell sharply during the next 2 years. Many households lost substantial amounts of equity during this downturn; in aggregate, U.S. homeowners lost $7 trillion in equity from 2006 to 2009. Aggregate home equity holdings had fallen back to 2000 levels by early 2009. Whereas this intense volatility has been well documented, there remain unanswered questions about the variation in experiences across racial groups, particularly among those who purchased their homes before the boom and kept them through the collapse of the market. Did this housing market upheaval widen the already large racial and ethnic gaps in housing wealth? Using the American Housing Survey, we analyze differences in the changes in home equity experienced by homeowners of different races and ethnicities between 2003 and 2009. We focus on homeowners who remained in their homes over this period, and find that blacks and Hispanics gained less home equity than whites and were more likely to end the period underwater. Black–white gaps were driven in part by racial disparities in income and education and differences in types of homes purchased. Latino–white disparities were most dramatic during the market’s bust.     

The COVID Cash Transfer Study: The Impacts of a One-Time Unconditional Cash Transfer on the Well-Being of Families Receiving SNAP in Twelve States

There is growing interest in the use of unconditional cash transfers as a means to alleviate poverty, yet little is known about the effects of such transfers in the U.S. This paper reports on the results of a randomized controlled study of a one-time $1,000 unconditional cash transfer in May 2020 to families with low incomes in 12 U.S. states. The families were receiving, or had recently received, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. We examine the impact of the cash transfer on five pre-registered outcomes (material hardship, mental health, parenting, child behavior, partner relationships) and several secondary outcomes (hardship avoidance, consumption, employment, benefit use). We find no statistically significant effects (powered to detect effects of 0.09 standard deviations) of the cash transfer on any outcomes for the full sample. In pre-specified exploratory analyses, we find significant reductions in material hardship (-0.17 standard deviations) among families with less than $500 of earnings in the previous month, roughly the bottom 50 percent of monthly earnings for the study sample.     

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN SURVEY AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits were a central part of the social safety net during the COVID-19 recession. UI benefits, however, are severely understated in surveys. Using administrative tax data, we find that over half of UI benefits were missed in major survey data, with a greater understatement among low-income workers. As a result, 2020 official poverty rates were overstated by about 2 percentage points, and corrected poverty reached a six-decade low. We provide data to correct underreporting in surveys and show that, compared to UI benefits, the UI exclusion tax expenditure was less targeted at low incomes.