Horse‐race Journalism and pollsters' performance in Israel

Abstract

This paper examines the interaction between the horse‐race attitude of the press in covering election campaigns and pollsters’ performance in Israel. Attempting to provide highly processed and more exciting reports, the press encourages pollsters to switch from relatively conservative approaches to projecting election results, into more daring ones, prone to situational errors. Moreover, criticizing such errors when they occur, the press focuses mainly on those errors consistent with its horse‐race orientation. Professional and political implications of the press's orientation and pollsters’ performance are discussed.     

Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

The Effects of Continuous Application of the TASER X26 Waveform on Sus scrofa,

This study investigated and evaluated the safety margins of the continuous long duration (up to 30 min) effect of the TASER X26 waveform, using a Sus scrofa model. Long duration continuous stimulus has not been evaluated on humans or human surrogates prior to this study. Swine were used as models due to similarities with humans in their skin and cardiovascular systems. Very long duration was used to determine both exposure dose and possible adverse physiological effects of dose. The trial began with an application of 10 min, and subsequent animals received increasing exposure time up to a survived maximum duration of 30 min. At the onset of this work, it was hypothesized that there would be a time limit after which most animals would not survive consistent with increased dose response. However, this hypothesis was not supported by the experimental results. All animals (10 of 10) survived up to 3 min. Seven of the 10 animals survived up to a 10‐min exposure and 3 of 5 animals with a 30‐min target exposure survived the full exposure. Surviving animals were recovered and observed for 24 h, with no postrecovery deaths. This suggests that swine (based on physiology) will not experience a fatal event when exposed to the TASER X26 for a continuous 3 min. Conclusions regarding longer duration (10–30 min) are not as certain due to the small sample sizes at these time intervals.     

Low Crime Rates in Bahrain: Islamic Social Control-Testing the Theory of Synnomie

This pioneer work builds upon the systems of social control (synnomie) developed by Freda Adler (1983). Its intent is to assess the low crime profile of Bahrain and in so doing to offer explanations for this country's low crime rates. While there is crime in Bahrain, this country appears to be the exception to the rule that rapid industrialization breeds high crime. The unique situation in Bahrain will be analyzed by: giving an overview of the country of Bahrain, examining recent crime statistics reported by official agencies in Bahrain, the United States, and in addition, the state of Vermont. The official sources of these data are not considered to be the most reliable indicators of crime, but they are the most comparable. Vermont is used for the comparison of numbers since it has an approximate population to Bahrain.

Low statistics of the amount of crime are reported for Bahrain which form the foundation for this paper. This paper offers possible explanations of low crime by using as its base the theory of synnomie (the consistency of norm and values sharing); and summarizes the main points in this paper and draws conclusions which point in the direction for the future of Bahrain, its citizens, and incidences of reported crime as Bahrain continues with its mission of modernization.     

Sentence disparity in the federal courts and the adoption of sentencing guidelines

Pressure in the 1970's to reform the sentencing process can be attributed to a change in perceived public sentiment regarding the utility of treatment and to the belief that sentencing disparity was a severe problem in the sentencing process. Primary reform occurred in the federal judicial system with the development and implementation of rigorous sentencing guidelines. An evaluation of sentencing patterns for one federal judicial district indicates that sentencing disparity was not severe. Most federal offenders are relatively mild and consistently receive relatively mild sentences.     

Institutionalising Gender Equality in Spain: From Party Quotas to Electoral Gender Quotas

This article accounts for the particular steps Spain took to institutionalise gender equality in political representation. While some West European countries, where the ‘incremental track’ was considered too slow or too ineffective, recently shifted to the ‘fast track’ (notably, Belgium, France, Italy and Portugal), Spain adopted a legislative quota in 2007, when women's representation had already reached very high levels. Indeed, 10 years earlier, the quotas adopted by left-wing Spanish parties in the late 1980s had already reached parity and triggered a contagion effect within the party system. Comparatively speaking, Spain has followed the incremental track in a narrow time frame since democracy was restored in 1978. Finally, although the legal quota reform encountered political and juridical opposition, Spain managed to introduce it without the need for constitutional reform.     

Executive power and policy‐making patterns in France: Gauging the impact of fifth republic institutions

This article attempts to gauge the impact that the institutions of the Fifth Republic have had on governmental behaviour and patterns of policy‐making in France. It is argued that the institutional changes introduced in 1958 have produced profound effects largely in line with the founders' intentions. The enhancement of executive power has produced strong governments capable of dominating the legislative process even in face of the most adverse political contingencies. However, the extraordinary powers of the executive have also generated some consequences unintended by the founders. The strong government system, designed to cure the malaise of the Fourth Republic, has combined with the nature of the party system to produce a distinctive Fifth Republic malaise that has proven most difficult to cure.     

Training on a Battlefield: Iraq as a Training Ground for Global Jihadis

This article aims to describe and analyze the training that foreign jihadis in Iraq have received, how this may impact on the future of the insurgency in Iraq, and the potential spillover effect from the Iraqi jihad scene. The nature of the training in Iraq has been influenced by the difficult conditions the jihadis were operating under, and much has consisted of on-the-job training inside safe houses. The foreign jihadis were dependent on the support of the local Iraqis in order to conduct training, but the increasing use of suicide attacks has turned their erstwhile allies against them.     

Neo‐revisionism or the emperor's new clothes: Some reflections on Niall Ferguson on the origins of the first world war

Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War (London: Allen Lane/The Penguin Press, 1998). xlv + 623 pp., £18.99 (hb), ISBN 0–713–99246–8.

Niall Ferguson (ed.), Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (London: Picador, 1997). 548 pp., £20 (hb), ISBN 0–330–35132‐X.